Evaluation of black carbon estimations in global aerosol models

We evaluate black carbon (BC) model predictions from the AeroCom model intercomparison project by considering the diversity among year 2000 model simulations and comparing model predictions with available measurements. These model-measurement intercomparisons include BC surface and aircraft concentrations, aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) retrievals from AERONET and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and BC column estimations based on AERONET. In regions other than Asia, most models are biased high compared to surface concentration measurements. However compared with (column) AAOD or BC burden retreivals, the models are generally biased low. The average ratio of model to retrieved AAOD is less than 0.7 in South American and 0.6 in African biomass burning regions; both of these regions lack surface concentration measurements. In Asia the average model to observed ratio is 0.7 for AAOD and 0.5 for BC surface concentrations. Compared with aircraft measurements over the Americas at latitudes between 0 and 50N, the average model is a factor of 8 larger than observed, and most models exceed the measured BC standard deviation in the mid to upper troposphere. At higher latitudes the average model to aircraft BC ratio is 0.4 and models underestimate the observed BC loading in the lower and middle troposphere associated with springtime Arctic haze. Low model bias for AAOD but overestimation of surface and upper atmospheric BC concentrations at lower latitudes suggests that most models are underestimating BC absorption and should improve estimates for refractive index, particle size, and optical effects of BC coating. Retrieval uncertainties and/or differences with model diagnostic treatment may also contribute to the model-measurement disparity. Largest AeroCom model diversity occurred in northern Eurasia and the remote Arctic, regions influenced by anthropogenic sources. Changing emissions, aging, removal, or optical properties within a single model generated a smaller change in model predictions than the range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models

Validation of the Harvard Lyman-α in situ water vapor instrument: Implications for the mechanisms that control stratospheric water vapor

Building on previously published details of the laboratory calibrations of the Harvard Lyman-α photofragment fluorescence hygrometer (HWV) on the NASA ER-2 and WB-57 aircraft, we describe here the validation process for HWV, which includes laboratory calibrations and intercomparisons with other Harvard water vapor instruments at water vapor mixing ratios from 0 to 10 ppmv, followed by in-flight intercomparisons with the same Harvard hygrometers. The observed agreement exhibited in the laboratory and during intercomparisons helps corroborate the accuracy of HWV. In light of the validated accuracy of HWV, we present and evaluate a series of intercomparisons with satellite and balloon borne water vapor instruments made from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere in the tropics and midlatitudes. Whether on the NASA ER-2 or WB-57 aircraft, HWV has consistently measured about 1–1.5 ppmv higher than the balloon-borne NOAA/ESRL/GMD frost point hygrometer (CMDL), the NOAA Cryogenic Frost point Hygrometer (CFH), and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite in regions of the atmosphere where water vapor is <10 ppmv. Comparisons in the tropics with the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite show large variable differences near the tropopause that converge to ~10% above 460 K, with HWV higher. Results we show from the Aqua Validation and Intercomparison Experiment (AquaVIT) at the AIDA chamber in Karlsruhe do not reflect the observed in-flight differences. We illustrate that the interpretation of the results of comparisons between modeled and measured representations of the seasonal cycle of water entering the lower tropical stratosphere is dictated by which data set is used

Profiles of circumscribed interests in autistic youth

Circumscribed interests (CI) encompass a range of different interests and related behaviors that can be characterized by either a high intensity but otherwise usual topic [referred to as restricted interests (RI)] or by a focus on topics that are not salient outside of autism [referred to as unusual interests (UI)]. Previous research has suggested that there is pronounced variability across individuals in terms of the endorsement of different interests, however, this variability has not been quantified using formal subtyping approaches. Therefore, using Latent Profile Analysis in a sample of 1,892 autistic youth (Mage = 10.82, SDage = 4.14; 420 females), this study aimed to identify subgroups based on the RU and UI profiles. Three profiles of autistic individuals were identified. They were characterized as Low CI, Predominantly RI, and Predominantly UI. Importantly, profiles differed on several key demographic and clinical variables, including age, sex composition, IQ, language level, social and communication abilities, anxiety, and obsessive-compulsive behaviors. Although replication across other samples is needed, the profiles identified in this study are potentially promising for future research given their distinct profiles of RI and UI and unique patterns of associations with key cognitive and clinical variables. Therefore, this study represents an important initial step towards more individualized assessment and support for diverse presentations of CI in autistic youth

Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil-fuel and biomass-burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of brown carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of 2. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with the largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 Wm[superscript −2] (0.08 Wm[superscript −2] from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 Wm[superscript −2] from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 Wm[superscript −2], with an additional +0.11 Wm[superscript −2] of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of −80%/+140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2–1.0 Wm[superscript −2] range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 Wm[superscript −2] DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime (including the effect on the vertical profile) and the incorrect attribution of BrC absorption to BC.United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Research and Development National Center for Environmental Research Science to Achieve Results (STAR) Program (Grant RD-83503301

Towards the semantic interpretation of personal health messages from social media

Recent attempts have been made to utilise social media platforms, such as Twitter, to provide early warning and monitoring of health threats in populations (i.e. Internet biosurveillance). It has been shown in the literature that a system based on keyword matching that exploits social media messages could report flu surveillance well ahead of the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). However, we argue that a simple keyword matching may not capture semantic interpretation of social media messages that would enable healthcare experts or machines to extract and leverage medical knowledge from social media messages. In this paper, we motivate and describe a new task that aims to tackle this technology gap by extracting semantic interpretation of medical terms mentioned in social media messages, which are typically written in layman’s language. Achieving such a task would enable an automatic integration between the data about direct patient experiences extracted from social media and existing knowledge from clinical databases, which leads to advances in the use of community health experiences in healthcare services.The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the EPSRC (grant number EP/M005089/1)This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from ACM via http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2811271.281127

Dust Impacts on the 2012 Hurricane Nadine Track During the NASA HS3 Field Campaign

During the 2012 deployment of the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) field campaign, several flights were dedicated to investigating Hurricane Nadine. Hurricane Nadine developed in close proximity to the dust-laden Saharan Air Layer, and is the fourth longest-lived Atlantic hurricane on record, experiencing two strengthening and weakening periods during its 22-day total lifecycle as a tropical cyclone. In this study, the NASA GEOS-5 atmospheric general circulation model and data assimilation system was used to simulate the impacts of dust during the first intensification and weakening phases of Hurricane Nadine using a series of GEOS-5 forecasts initialized during Nadine's intensification phase (12 September 2012). The forecasts explore a hierarchy of aerosol interactions within the model: no aerosol interaction, aerosol-radiation interactions, and aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions simultaneously, as well as variations in assumed dust optical properties. When only aerosol-radiation interactions are included, Nadine's track exhibits sensitivity to dust shortwave absorption, as a more absorbing dust introduces a shortwave temperature perturbation that impacts Nadine's structure and steering flow, leading to a northward track divergence after 5 days of simulation time. When aerosol-cloud interactions are added, the track exhibits little sensitivity to dust optical properties. This result is attributed to enhanced longwave atmospheric cooling from clouds that counters shortwave atmospheric warming by dust surrounding Nadine, suggesting that aerosol-cloud interactions are a more significant influence on Nadine's track than aerosol-radiation interactions. These findings demonstrate that tropical systems, specifically their track, can be impacted by dust interaction with the atmosphere

Transmission and immunopathology of the avian influenza virus A/Anhui/1/2013 (H7N9) human isolate in three commonly commercialized avian species

H7N9 virus infection is a global concern, given that it can cause severe infection and mortality in humans. However, the understanding of H7N9 epidemiology, animal reservoir species and zoonotic risk remains limited. This work evaluates the pathogenicity, transmissibility and local innate immune response of three avian species harbouring different respiratory distribution of α2,6 and α2,3 SA receptors. Muscovy ducks, European quails and SPF chickens were intranasally inoculated with 105 embryo infectious dose (EID)50 of the human H7N9 (A/Anhui/1/2013) influenza isolate. None of the avian species showed clinical signs or macroscopic lesions, and only mild microscopic lesions were observed in the upper respiratory tract of quail and chickens. Quail presented more severe histopathologic lesions and avian influenza virus (AIV) positivity by immunohistochemistry (IHC), which correlated with higher IL‐6 responses. In contrast, Muscovy ducks were resistant to disease and presented higher IFNα and TLR7 response. In all species, viral shedding was higher in the respiratory than in the digestive tract. Higher viral shedding was observed in quail, followed by chicken and ducks, which presented similar viral titres. Efficient transmission was observed in all contact quail and half of the Muscovy ducks, while no transmission was observed between chicken. All avian species showed viral shedding in drinking water throughout infection.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Cloud condensation nuclei as a modulator of ice processes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds

We propose that cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are important for modulating ice formation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds, through modification of the droplet size distribution. Aircraft observations from the Aerosol, Radiation, and Cloud Processes affecting Arctic Climate (ARCPAC) study in northern Alaska in April 2008 allow for identification and characterization of both aerosol and trace gas pollutants, which are then compared with cloud microphysical properties. Consistent with previous studies, we find that the concentration of precipitating ice particles (&gt;400 μm) is correlated with the concentration of large droplets (&gt;30 μm). We are further able to link the observed microphysical conditions to aerosol pollution, originating mainly from long range transport of biomass burning emissions. The case studies demonstrate that polluted mixed-phase clouds have narrower droplet size distributions and contain 1–2 orders of magnitude fewer precipitating ice particles than clean clouds at the same temperature. This suggests an aerosol indirect effect leading to greater cloud lifetime, greater cloud emissivity, and reduced precipitation. This result is opposite to the glaciation indirect effect, whereby polluted clouds are expected to precipitate more readily due to an increase in the concentration of particles acting as ice nuclei