Quarterly Seasonality in U.S. Stock Returns

This Thesis proves a quarterly seasonality pattern in U.S. stock returns: stock’s expected return in a given month t is correlated with its returns in past lagged quarterend months i.e. months t-3,6,9,…. Strategies based on quarterend lags outperform those based on past returns of all months. Unlike in the case past returns in general, the correlation between the stock price and quarterend lags does not reverse after the most recent past year. Indeed, the quarterend lags do not seem to contribute to long-term return reversal phenomena. The return pattern is strong. A zero-investment strategy investing based on the returns of the past four quarterends yields on average 1.25% per month in the period of 1946-2016 and is both more profitable and less risky than a traditional momentum portfolio during the same period. Returns of zero-investment quarterend portfolios are significantly positive in all tested formation intervals up to lagged 20 years. Quarterly seasonality cannot be solely explained by the annual seasonality found by Heston and Sadka (2008) but portfolios based on nonannual quarterend lags still yield higher returns than other strategies. The quarterend pattern is stronger in value weighted returns but also exists in equal weighted portfolios. Controlling for firm-specific events of the calendar year like earnings announcements and ex-dividend dates does not diminish the superiority of quarterend strategies, nor are their returns tied to any particular calendar period of the year

Avoiding negative information as a strategy for emotion regulation

The aim of the paper is to investigate whether the personality trait negative emotionality and sense of coherence influence emotionally motivated information avoidance, i.e., avoidance of negative information that potentially evoke anxiety or worry. Data from 412 respondents was collected in a survey which measured negative emotionality, sense of coherence and information avoidance. A conceptual model is proposed, and structural equation modelling (SEM) was applied to analyse the data.Results. Negative emotionality was found to influence information avoidance not only directly, but also indirectly through the manageability dimension of sense of coherence. In other words, manageability mediates the relationship between negative emotionality and information avoidance. The study contributes by showing that personal inclinations impact emotionally motivated information avoidance across contexts.Peer Reviewe

The effect of first school years on mathematical skill profiles

This study investigated the effect of children’s first formal school years on mathematical skill profiles, measured by a variety of arithmetical skills and Spontaneous Focusing On Numerosity (SFON) tasks. By using person-centered approach the aim was to investigate whether the amount of formal schooling is associated with mathematical skills in the same way for all children, or, whether the associations differ according to the children’s mathematical skill profiles. Data was analyzed from 652 4–7-year-old children from four European countries with different school entrance ages. A person-centered approach with latent profile regression analyses on four-factor score variables identified six mathematical skill profiles with both qualitative and quantitative differences. The results revealed significant, but small effects of the amount of schooling on mathematical profiles when chronological age and country-specific school entrance age were controlled for. Educational implications of the findings emphasize regarding the heterogeneity in children’s mathematical skill profiles and the potentially different effects of starting formal schooling across different profiles