Interlinkages and forecasting made possible by the use of the DECOIN analytical tool kit

This technical report is a document prepared as a deliverable [D4.3 Report of the Interlinkages and forecasting prototype tool] of a EU project - DECOIN Project No. 044428 - FP6-2005-SSP-5A. The text is divided into 4 sections: (1) this short introductory section explains the purpose of the report; (2) the second section provides a general discussion of a systemic problem found in existing quantitative analysis of sustainability. It addresses the epistemological implications of complexity, which entails the need of dealing with the existence of Multiple-Scales and non-equivalent narratives (multiple dimensions/attributes) to be used to define sustainability issues. There is an unavoidable tension between a "steady-state view" (= the perception of what is going on now - reflecting a PAST --> PRESENT view of the reality) versus an "evolutionary view" (= the unknown transformation that we have to expect in the process of becoming of the observed reality and in the observer - reflecting a PRESENT --> FUTURE view of the reality). The section ends by listing the implications of these points on the choice of integrated packages of sustainability indicators; (3) the third section illustrates the potentiality of the DECOIN toolkit for the study of sustainability trade-offs and linkages across indicators using quantitative examples taken from cases study of another EU project (SMILE). In particular, this section starts by addressing the existence of internal constraints to sustainability (economic versus social aspects). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of ageing and immigration on the economic viability of social systems. Then the section continues by exploring external constraints to sustainability (economic development vs the environment). The narrative chosen for this discussion focuses on the dark side of current strategy of economic development based on externalization and the "bubbles-disease"; (4) the last section presents a critical appraisal of the quality of energy data found in energy statistics. It starts with a discussion of the general goal of statistical accounting. Then it introduces the concept of multipurpose grammars. The second part uses the experience made in the activities of the DECOIN project to answer the question: how useful are EUROSTAT energy statistics? The answer starts with an analysis of basic epistemological problems associated with accounting of energy. This discussion leads to the acknowledgment of an important epistemological problem: the unavoidable bifurcations in the mechanism of accounting needed to generate energy statistics. By using numerical example the text deals with the following issues: (i) the pitfalls of the actual system of accounting in energy statistics; (ii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in BP statistics; (iii) a critical appraisal of the actual system of accounting in Eurostat statistics. The section ends by proposing an innovative method to represent energy statistics which can result more useful for those willing develop sustainability indicators

When two movements collide: Learning from labour and environmental struggles for future Just Transitions

The term ‘Just Transition’ (JT) emerged from the 1970s North American labour movement to become a campaign for a planned energy transition that includes justice and fairness for workers. There is diversity in the JT narratives and ambitions that different actors put forward regarding its aims and strategies. This article critically reviews academic and grey literature on the JT in the Global North and South Africa to examine how labour, advocacy, private sector, and governmental actors frame and formulate the JT, and how narrative patterns across actors can signal transformative justice. Highlighting the JT's origins, we fill a gap in transition literature by reintroducing the labour perspective into an analysis of affirmative and transformative justice, and propose an original theoretical framework that unites scholarship in environmental and labour studies. JT proposals are examined through an analysis of the actors, approaches, and tensions across five key themes: depth & urgency, scale & scope, identity & inclusion, material equity, and participation & power. Finally, we synthesise trends in our findings in relation to prominent JT discourses in the literature – Green Growth, Green Keynesianism, Energy Democracy, and Green Revolution – and discuss the transformative potential of JT alliances and coalitions going into the future. © 2022 The AuthorsThank you to Matthew Burke, Timmo Krüger, Eva Eichenauer, and Ludger Gailing. Alevgul H. Sorman would like to acknowledge the PARIS REINFORCE project from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820846 and the María de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714 of BC3. Thank you to Matthew Burke, Timmo Kr?ger, Eva Eichenauer, and Ludger Gailing. Alevgul H. Sorman would like to acknowledge the PARIS REINFORCE project from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 820846 and the Mar?a de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714 of BC3

Violent victimisation of psychiatric patients: a Swedish case–control study

The intriguing question of how mental disorder and violence relate to each other has become an epic academic debate. During the last decades, there has been a change in direction of the debate on individuals with mental disorder, with a greater focus on violent victimization than violent behaviour towards others. Up until now, no Swedish study has investigated the frequency of violent behaviour among general psychiatric patients undergoing psychiatric treatment. Moreover, no Swedish study so far has investigated the relative risk of victimization in general psychiatric patients, in comparison to the general population. The aim of this dissertation was to investigate these issues and to validate the risk assessment method Classification of Violence Risk (COVR)™. Method: In study I, general psychiatric patients were recruited from two public psychiatric hospitals in Stockholm County (n=390). The control group consisted of gender- and age-matched subjects recruited from an annual national survey of living conditions, (conducted by Statistics Sweden) (n=1170). Studies II-IV consisted of prospective follow-ups on 331 patients. At baseline, clinical and socio-demographic variables were collected and a COVR assessment was conducted. Follow-up included telephone interviews with the patients and collaterals 10 and 20 weeks after baseline. Violent behaviour was self-reported and in addition, data was collected from a national criminal register. Results: Twenty percent of the patients had been victimised during the year preceding inclusion. The relative rate of victimization was six times higher in patients compared to controls. Women appeared to be most vulnerable with a 10-fold risk increase (Study I). The base rate of violent behaviour was 5.7% and a receiver operating curve analysis (ROC) showed that the area under the curve (AUC) for COVR was 0.77. The gender gap concerning violent behaviour among the general population was not replicated, since there was no significant gender difference with respect to violent acts 20 weeks after discharge. The predictive validity of the COVR software was comparable between females and males. There was an overlap between offenders and victims among psychiatric patients (Studies II-IV). Conclusions: The risk of being subjected to violence is high among Swedish psychiatric patients. The findings are most pronounced for female patients. Research, clinicians and social policy should target the problem of victimization. The base rate of violent behaviour towards others is relatively low among general psychiatric patients in Sweden. Therefore, prediction is difficult. Violent behaviour was uncommon in female as well as male patients and there were no gender differences. The COVR software could significantly predict violent behaviour and its validity was comparable to other risk assessment tools. COVR predicted violent behaviour with the same precision in both genders. The overlap between offenders and victims should be taken into account in both research and clinical settings

Democratizing Energy, Energizing Democracy: Central Dimensions Surfacing in the Debate

This perspective piece sets to contribute to the academic and practitioner debates around energy democracy in the age of climate crisis. In tackling the present-day energy transition challenges in a democratic, equitable, just and sustainable manner, we argue that sound research shall take alternative currents to centralized access to and control of energy decision making at its core as well as exploring new and novel ways to deal with production and distribution issues. Critical research on new actors, materialities, values, worldviews, democracy, and justice on energy is well-situated to meet these challenges. Navigating value systems, exploring enabling or disabling material qualities, focusing on ruptures, continuities, and emerging new geographies all carry a promise in critical energy research. We contend that ‘normative, political and embodied’ research strategies must be used to defeat the far right’s the particularly mischievous approach to planetary futures.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Three sides to every story: Gender perspectives in energy transition pathways in Canada, Kenya and Spain

Transitions toward a low-carbon future are not only technical and economical, but also deeply social and gendered. The gendered nature of energy transitions is often implicit and unexplored. As a corrective, this paper explores energy pathways by applying concepts from innovations and gender studies. We examine gender perspectives and niche energy innovations which could disrupt the regime. The regime represents the mainstream pathway that includes the dominant gender perspective and energy system. We explore different gender perspectives of energy transition pathways by applying an Alternative Pathways framework that includes: (1) on-stream pathways that exist within the mainstream pathway to promote equal opportunities for women and men, as well as niches for energy innovations without challenging the high-carbon energy regime; (2) off-stream pathways that depart from the mainstream and promote differences across different genders while creating niches outside the energy regime; and (3) transformative pathways that are fundamentally different from the previous mainstream and includes all gender perspectives in a new energy regime. Applying this framing, in Canada, we explored Indigenous perspectives in the oil sands sector; in Kenya, we studied largescale renewable energy impacting Indigneous communities; in Spain, we evaluate the movement away from fossil fuels and towards renewable technologies. The framework helped to identify that mainstream pathways represented the dominant male perspective while woman's perspective were largely left out. Such absence generate energy pathways that are disconnected from local realities, lack public buy-in and slow-down a sustainable energy transition. © 2020 The Author(s)We would like to acknowledge the feedback of the two anonymous reviews as well as the TRANSrisk consortium members. We would also like to acknowledge the Maria de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM-2017-0714 of BC3

Assessing risks of low-carbon transition pathways

Organisation and Governanc

Applications of the MuSIASEM approach to study changes in the metabolic pattern of Catalonia

This document presents an integrated analysis of the performance of Catalonia based on an analysis of how the energy consumption (measured at the societal level for the Catalan Society) is used within both the productive sectors of the economy and the household, to generate added value, jobs, and to guarantee a given level of material standard of living to the population. The trends found in Catalonia are compared to the trends of other European Countries to contextualize the performance of Catalonia with respect to other societies that have followed different paths of economic development. The first part of the document consists of the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach that has been used to provide this integrated analysis of Catalan Society across different scales (starting from an analysis of the specific sectors of the Catalan economy as an Autonomous Community and scaling up to an intra-regional (European Union 14) comparison) and across different dimensions of analyses of energy consumption coupled with added value generation. Within the scope of this study, we observe the various trajectories of changes in the metabolic pattern for Catalonia and the EU14 countries in the Paid Work Sectors composed of namely, the Agricultural Sector, the Productive Sector and the Services and Government Sector also in comparison with the changes in the household sector. The flow intensities of the exosomatic energy and the added value generated for each specific sector are defined per hour of human activity, thus characterized as exosomatic energy (MJ/hour) (or Exosomatic Metabolic Rate) and added value (€/hour) (Economic Labour Productivity) across multiple levels. Within the second part of the document, the possible usage of the MuSIASEM approach to land use analyses (using a multi-level matrix of categories of land use) has been conducted

Assessing biophysical limits to the economic development of remote islands : the case of Isabela in the Galapagos Archipelago

Altres ajuts: National Scholarship Program of the National Secretary of Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation (SENESCYT) of EcuadorIn assessing the sustainability of island tourism, the resident population size and yearly number of visitors are key factors. However, to assess the overall resource requirement and environmental impact on local ecosystems, we must also consider the metabolic rates and density of energy and material flows related to the activity of residents and tourists. We present here an innovative approach, the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM), with the aim of providing an integrated characterization of the metabolic pattern of island tourism. We use the tourism model implemented in the island Isabela in the Galapagos Archipelago as a case study. We show how MuSIASEM allows us to assess the overall requirement of resources and environmental services and the environmental impact for a given model of tourism. MuSIASEM employs a multi-level matrix to represent these characteristics in an integrated way, thus emphasizing the nexus between different biophysical factors

Entropi, yapay sinir ağları ve geçiş teoremlerinin akım gözlem ağının ve su kaynakları sistemlerinin planlanmasında birlikte kullanılması ve Kızılırmak havzasına uygulanması

TÜBİTAK MAG Proje01.07.2005Su kaynakları planlanmasında büyük önemi olan hidrolojik verilerin toplanarak değerlendirilmesine olanak sağlayacak nesnel ölçütün, bilgi kuramında tanımlanan “entropi kavramı” olabileceği çeşitli araştırıcılarca öne sürülmektedir. Entropi metodu, hidrolojik verilerin ölçülmesinde kullanılan akım gözlem istasyonlarının taşıdıkları bilgi miktarına göre istasyon kapatma kararı vermede kullanılabildiği gibi aynı zamanda yeni örnekleme istasyonlarının sayısını ve yerini belirlemede de kullanılabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Kızılırmak Havzasında yer alan akım gözlem istasyonlarına iki farklı entropi metodu uygulanarak ölçüme devam edilmesi gereken istasyonlara karar verilmesi planlanmıştır. Ayrıca dağılım tiplerinin entropi metodu üzerindeki etkileri de araştırılmıştır. Serilere en uygun dağılım tipi olarak log-normal dağılım seçilmiştir. Bu varsayım altında EIE 1501, EIE 1541 ve EIE 1536 ölçüme devam etmesi gerekli istasyonlar olarak belirlenmiştir. Kullanılan modellerden elde edilen serilerin güvenilir olması hem ekonomi hem de verimlilik açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bugüne kadar yapılmış olan zaman serisi modellerinde normal dağılıma uyma varsayımı kabul edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda pek çok çalışmada geçerlilik bulan yapay sinir ağları (YSA) gibi doğrusal olmayan bir modelin aynı havzada yer alan akım gözlem istasyon verileri için kurulması planlanmışdır. Yapılan çalışmada YSA modelinin Kızılırmak havzasında yer alan istasyonların sentetik seri türetilmesinde oldukça başarılı olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Yukarıda açıklanan süreçlerden sonra geçiş (crossing) metodunun uygulanması amaçlanmıştır. Su kaynakları sistemleri (özellikle barajlar), suyun fazla geldiği zamanlarda biriktirme yapmak, eksik olduğu zamanlarda da haznesinde biriktirdiği suyla ihtiyacı karşılamak amaçlı yapılmaktadır. Bu maksatla, taşkın veya kuraklık süreleri, hacimleri ve ardışık pikler arasındaki süreler su kaynakları sistemlerini planlama aşamasında önem kazanacağından aynı akım gözlem istasyonu verilerine yukarıda belirtilen değerlerin bulunmasını sağlayan geçiş modelinin uygulaması yapılmıştır.The “entropy concept” defined in the information theory by several researchers is claimed to be the objective criterion which makes possible to obtain and asses the hydrologic data which has great importance in water resources engineering. Entropy method may possibly be employed for both discontinuing the water monitoring stations according to the information contained and determining the location and number of the streamflow measuring stations. In the current study, it is aimed to determine which stations should be continued to measure the runoff in the Kizilirmak Basin. Furthermore, the effect of the distribution type on Entropy method is also investigated in this study. The log-normal distribution is selected as an appropriate distribution for each series. Therefore, EIE 1501, EIE 1541 and EIE 1536 stations are obtained to necessary stations to continue measure under this assumption. The reliability of the synthetic series obtained from the models used has great importance for both economy and efficiency. The time series model, which has been used up to now, has accepted various assumptions. One of them is normality assumption. In this study, a non-linear model such as artificial neural network (ANN) which are valid for most of the studies are planned to be used for the data collection from the existing stations. In this study, it is concluded that ANN model is very successfully to derive synthetic series which occur in Kızılırmak Basin. The crossing method is aimed to be used after the processes previously explained. Water resources systems especially dams are constructed to store water if it is more than demand and use the stored water when it is less. Therefore flood and drought periods, volume and the time between the sequent peaks will gain importance. As a consequence of the referred the data used to obtain these parameters by means of a crossing theory

Cultures of transformation: An integrated framework for transformative action

The challenges posed by climate change have generated many initiatives that seek to implement societal transformations. In most cases, these focus on technology developments, adoption and diffusion but neglect the social and cultural dimensions of a transformation. Insights from systems and behavioural sciences can provide valuable guidance on these aspects, but the utility of this literature is limited by two factors. Firstly, the literature on the intersection between social transformation and psychological processes of behaviour change by individuals is limited. Secondly, the complex technical nature of much of the transition relevant literature limits its accessibility by stakeholders outside academia. We seek to address these challenges through the development of a transdisciplinary Transformation Process Framework for use as a ‘knowledge integration’ tool as part of a co-design process for transformative change. The Framework: (1) develops a systematic narrative of the transformational changes that need to be triggered at multiple scales (from individual to society), (2) generates a map to identify key variables, drivers, and blockers in a transformation process integrating different knowledge from fragmented disciplines; (3) serves as a tool to support the exploration of relevant academic (and other) literature to collate and utilise relevant knowledge. © 2022Suggestion H.P., A.H.S. and A.A.K was supported by the H2020 European Commission Project ‘PARIS REINFORCE’ under grant agreement no. 820846 . This work also originated in, and benefited from, discussions with multiple research and non-governmental organisations. We acknowledge and thank all involved in helping us develop and refine our ideas. We also thank two anonymous referees who provided valuable and insights comments that significantly helped in improving the original manuscript. We also grateful for the constructive and thoughtful comments provided by two anonymous referees