Varying relationships between fish length and scale size under changing environmental conditions – Multidecadal perspective in Atlantic herring

Calcified structures are valuable indicators being used in fisheries research for the estimation of fish ages or back-calculations of fish lengths. Such back-calculations typically assume constant proportional growth of fish and calcified structures independent of internal or environmental factors. We analyzed extensive data (1935–2020) of scale measurements from Norwegian spring-spawning herring. We applied linear quantile regressions to investigate the fish length – scale size relationship and environmental influences on individuals growing at different rates. We demonstrated that the fish length – scale size relationship varied over time and between cohorts, individuals of the same year-class. Parts of this variation can be attributed to changing environmental conditions. We identified a negative effect of stock total biomass and a positive effect of temperature on fish length when conditioned on scale size. The effect of stock total biomass varied considerably but the effect of temperature was similar between fish characterized by different growth rates. Our results are essential for long-term studies highlighting potential biases associated with environmental effects and different growth rates of individuals. These biases should be accounted for in growth history reconstructions and applications of the calcified structures as ecological indicators.publishedVersio

Cascading effects of temperature alterations on trophic ecology of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus)

The aims of this project were to study: diet composition, food selectivity and the phenology of different prey items in grayling’s (Thymallus thymallus) diet. It was hypothesized, that alterations in mayfly emergence, caused by reservoir-induced thermal changes, have consequences for trophic ecology of drift-feeding fish. Sampling of fish and macroinvertebrates were conducted in two closely located rivers, one human-modified and the other an undisturbed river. Grayling preyed mainly on aquatic insects, but only mayflies were preferred. Seasonal changes of the fish diet were observed, and air temperature is considered a predictor of prey occurrence with different time lags, depending on the biology of the organisms. Significant differences in the abundances and probability of mayfly occurrence between two studied rivers were shown. The observed phenological shift suggests that distorted environmental cues were experienced by the Ephemeroptera in the modified river. The “lost generation” of insects which failed to complete development became a new food for fish. The results presented indicate that reservoir-induced thermal alterations in the rivers, similarly to climate change, can lead to a chain of consequences in the ecosystems. Taking into consideration the projected climate scenarios, further monitoring and forecasting of these effects are considered an important step for future mitigating actions and adaptive management of water resources.publishedVersio

Contrasting patterns in the occurrence and biomass centers of gravity among fish and macroinvertebrates in a continental shelf ecosystem

The distribution of a group of fish and macroinvertebrates (n = 52) resident in the US Northeast Shelf large marine ecosystem were characterized with species distribution models (SDM), which in turn were used to estimate occurrence and biomass center of gravity (COG). The SDMs were fit using random forest machine learning and were informed with a range of physical and biological variables. The estimated probability of occurrence and biomass from the models provided the weightings to determine depth, distance to the coast, and along-shelf distance COG. The COGs of occupancy and biomass habitat tended to be separated by distances averaging 50 km, which approximates half of the minor axis of the subject ecosystem. During the study period (1978–2018), the biomass COG has tended to shift to further offshore positions whereas occupancy habitat has stayed at a regular spacing from the coastline. Both habitat types have shifted their along-shelf distances, indicating a general movement to higher latitude or to the Northeast for this ecosystem. However, biomass tended to occur at lower latitudes in the spring and higher latitude in the fall in a response to seasonal conditions. Distribution of habitat in relation to depth reveals a divergence in response with occupancy habitat shallowing over time and biomass habitat distributing in progressively deeper water. These results suggest that climate forced change in distribution will differentially affect occurrence and biomass of marine taxa, which will likely affect the organization of ecosystems and the manner in which human populations utilize marine resources.publishedVersio

Automatic interpretation of salmon scales using deep learning

For several fish species, age and other important biological information is manually inferred from visual scrutinization of scales, and reliable automatic methods are not widely available. Here, we apply Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) with transfer learning on a novel dataset of 9056 images of Atlantic salmon scales for four different prediction tasks. We predicted fish origin (wild/farmed), spawning history (previous spawner/non-spawner), river age, and sea age. We obtained high prediction accuracy for fish origin (96.70%), spawning history (96.40%), and sea age (86.99%), but lower accuracy for river age (63.20%). Against six human expert readers with an additional dataset of 150 scales, the CNN showed the second-highest percentage agreement for sea age (94.00%, range 87.25±97.30%), but the lowest agreement for river age (66.00%, range 66.00– 84.68%). Estimates of river age by expert readers exhibited higher variance and lower levels of agreement compared to sea age and may indicate why this task is also more difficult for the CNN. Automatic interpretation of scales may provide a cost- and time-efficient method of predicting fish age and life-history traits.publishedVersio

A century of fish growth in relation to climate change, population dynamics and exploitation

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high‐latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long‐term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century‐scale biochronology (1924–2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed‐effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing‐related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density‐dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.publishedVersio

Potential sources of bias in the climate sensitivities of fish otolith biochronologies

Analysis of growth increments in the hard parts of animals (e.g., fish otoliths) can be used to assess how organisms respond to variability in environmental conditions. In this study, mixed-effects models were applied to otolith data simulated for two hypothetical fish populations with assumed biological parameters and known growth response to environmental variability. Our objective was to assess the sensitivity of environment–growth relationships derived from otolith biochronologies when challenged with a range of realistic ageing errors and sampling regimes. We found that the development of a robust biochronology and the precision of environmental effect estimates can be seriously hampered by insufficient sample size. Moreover, the introduction of even moderate ageing error into the data can cause substantial underestimation of environmental sources of growth variation. This underestimation diminished our capacity to correctly quantify the known environment–growth relationship and more generally will lead to overly conservative conclusions concerning the growth response to environmental change. Careful study design, reduction of ageing errors, and large sample sizes are critical prerequisites if robust inferences are to be made from biochronological data.publishedVersio

Counting stars: contribution of early career scientists to marine and fisheries sciences

Scientific careers and publishing have radically changed in recent decades creating an increasingly competitive environment for early career scientists (ECS). The lack of quantitative data available on ECS in marine and fisheries sciences prevents direct assessment of the consequences of increased competitiveness. We assessed the contributions of ECS (up to 6 years post first publication) to the field using an indirect approach by investigating the authorships of peer-reviewed articles. We analysed 118461 papers published by 184561 authors in the top 20 marine and fisheries sciences journals over the years 1991–2020. We identified a positive long-term trend in the proportion of scientific articles (co-)authored by ECS. This suggests a growing contribution by ECS to publications in the field. However, the mean proportion of ECS (co-)authors within one publication declined significantly over the study period. Subsequent tests demonstrated that articles with ECS (co-)authors receive fewer citations and that the proportion of ECS (co-)authors on an article has a significant negative effect on the number of citations. We discuss the potential causes of these inequalities and urge systematic support to ECS to achieve more balanced opportunities for funding and publishing between ECS and senior scientists

Seasonal depth distribution and thermal experience of the non-indigenous round goby Neogobius melanostomus in the Baltic Sea: implications to key trophic relations

Native to the Ponto-Caspian region, the benthic round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) has invaded several European inland waterbodies as well as the North American Great Lakes and the Baltic Sea. The species is capable of reaching very high densities in the invaded ecosystems, with not only evidence for significant food-web effects on the native biota and habitats, but also negative implications to coastal fishers. Although generally considered a coastal species, it has been shown that round goby migrate to deeper areas of the Great Lakes and other inland lakes during the cold season. Such seasonal movements may create new spatio-temporal ecosystem consequences in invaded systems. To seek evidence for seasonal depth distribution in coastal marine habitats, we compiled all available catch data for round goby in the Baltic Sea since its invasion and until 2017. We furthermore related the depths at capture for each season with the ambient thermal environment. The round goby spend autumn and winter at significantly deeper and offshore areas compared to spring and summer months; few fish were captured at depths 25 m. The thermal conditions at which round goby were caught varied significantly between seasons, being on average 18.3 °C during summer, and dropping to a low 3.8 °C during winter months. Overall, the fish sought the depths within each season with the highest possible temperatures. The spatial distribution of the round goby substantially overlaps with that of its main and preferred prey (mussels) and with that of its competitor for food (flatfish), but only moderately with the coastal predatory fish (perch), indicating thereby very complex trophic interactions associated with this invasion. Further investigations should aim at quantifying the food web consequences and coupling effects between different habitats related to seasonal migrations of the round goby, both in terms of the species as a competitor, predator and prey

Growth portfolios buffer climate-linked environmental change in marine systems

Large-scale, climate-induced synchrony in the productivity of fish populations is becoming more pronounced in the world's oceans. As synchrony increases, a population's “portfolio” of responses can be diminished, in turn reducing its resilience to strong perturbation. Here we argue that the costs and benefits of trait synchronization, such as the expression of growth rate, are context dependent. Contrary to prevailing views, synchrony among individuals could actually be beneficial for populations if growth synchrony increases during favorable conditions, and then declines under poor conditions when a broader portfolio of responses could be useful. Importantly, growth synchrony among individuals within populations has seldom been measured, despite well-documented evidence of synchrony across populations. Here, we used century-scale time series of annual otolith growth to test for changes in growth synchronization among individuals within multiple populations of a marine keystone species (Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua). On the basis of 74,662 annual growth increments recorded in 13,749 otoliths, we detected a rising conformity in long-term growth rates within five northeast Atlantic cod populations in response to both favorable growth conditions and a large-scale, multidecadal mode of climate variability similar to the East Atlantic Pattern. The within-population synchrony was distinct from the across-population synchrony commonly reported for large-scale environmental drivers. Climate-linked, among-individual growth synchrony was also identified in other Northeast Atlantic pelagic, deep-sea and bivalve species. We hypothesize that growth synchrony in good years and growth asynchrony in poorer years reflects adaptive trait optimization and bet hedging, respectively, that could confer an unexpected, but pervasive and stabilizing, impact on marine population productivity in response to large-scale environmental change.publishedVersio