A predicted astrometric microlensing event by a nearby white dwarf

We used the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution catalogue, part of the Gaia Data Release 1, to search for candidate astrometric microlensing events expected to occur within the remaining lifetime of the Gaia satellite. Our search yielded one promising candidate. We predict that the nearby DQ type white dwarf LAWD 37 (WD 1142-645) will lens a background star and will reach closest approach on November 11th 2019 ($\pm$ 4 days) with impact parameter $380\pm10$ mas. This will produce an apparent maximum deviation of the source position of $2.8\pm0.1$ mas. In the most propitious circumstance, Gaia will be able to determine the mass of LAWD 37 to $\sim3\%$. This mass determination will provide an independent check on atmospheric models of white dwarfs with helium rich atmospheres, as well as tests of white dwarf mass radius relationships and evolutionary theory

VVV-WIT-08: the giant star that blinked

We report the serendipitous discovery of a late-type giant star that exhibited a smooth, eclipse-like drop in flux to a depth of 97 per cent. Minimum flux occurred in 2012 April and the total event duration was a few hundred days. Light curves in V, I, and Ks from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment and VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea surveys show a remarkably achromatic event. During 17 yr of observational coverage of this source only one such event was detected. The physical properties of the giant star itself appear somewhat unusual, which may ultimately provide a clue towards the nature of the system. By modelling the event as an occultation by an object that is elliptical in projection with uniform transparency, we place limits on its physical size and velocity. We find that the occultation is unlikely to be due to a chance alignment with a foreground object. We consider a number of possible candidates for the occulter, which must be optically thick and possess a radius or thickness in excess of 0.25 au. None are completely satisfactory matches to all the data. The duration, depth, and relative achromaticity of the dip mark this out as an exceptionally unusual event, whose secret has still not been fully revealed. We find two further candidates in the VVV survey and we suggest that these systems, and two previously known examples, may point to a broad class of long-period eclipsing binaries wherein a giant star is occulted by a circumsecondary disc

<i>Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense</i> transmitted by a single tsetse fly bite in vervet monkeys as a model of human African trypanosomiasis

Sleeping sickness is caused by a species of trypanosome blood parasite that is transmitted by tsetse flies. To understand better how infection with this parasite leads to disease, we provide here the most detailed description yet of the course of infection and disease onset in vervet monkeys. One infected tsetse fly was allowed to feed on each host individual, and in all cases infections were successful. The characteristics of infection and disease were similar in all hosts, but the rate of progression varied considerably. Parasites were first detected in the blood 4-10 days after infection, showing that migration of parasites from the site of fly bite was very rapid. Anaemia was a key feature of disease, with a reduction in the numbers and average size of red blood cells and associated decline in numbers of platelets and white blood cells. One to six weeks after infection, parasites were observed in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), indicating that they had moved from the blood into the brain; this was associated with a white cell infiltration. This study shows that fly-transmitted infection in vervets accurately mimics human disease and provides a robust model to understand better how sleeping sickness develops

The biggest splash

Using a large sample of bright nearby stars with accurate Gaia Data Release 2 astrometry and auxiliary spectroscopy we map out the properties of the principle Galactic components such as the ‘thin’ and ‘thick’ discs and the halo. We confirm previous claims that in the Solar neighbourhood, there exists a large population of metal-rich ([Fe/H] > −0.7) stars on highly eccentric orbits. By studying the evolution of elemental abundances, kinematics, and stellar ages in the plane of azimuthal velocity vφ and metallicity [Fe/H], we demonstrate that this metal-rich halo-like component, which we dub the Splash, is linked to the α-rich (or ‘thick’) disc. Splash stars have little to no angular momentum and many are on retrograde orbits. They are predominantly old, but not as old as the stars deposited into the Milky Way (MW) in the last major merger. We argue, in agreement with several recent studies, that the Splash stars may have been born in the MW’s protodisc prior to the massive ancient accretion event which drastically altered their orbits. We cannot, however, rule out other (alternative) formation channels. Taking advantage of the causal connection between the merger and the Splash, we put constraints of the epoch of the last massive accretion event to have finished 9.5 Gyr ago. The link between the local metal-rich and metal-poor retrograde stars is confirmed using a large suite of cutting-edge numerical simulations of the MW’s formation

The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts.This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios

An extracellular steric seeding mechanism for Eph-ephrin signaling platform assembly

Erythropoetin-producing hepatoma (Eph) receptors are cell-surface protein tyrosine kinases mediating cell-cell communication. Upon activation, they form signaling clusters. We report crystal structures of the full ectodomain of human EphA2 (eEphA2) both alone and in complex with the receptor-binding domain of the ligand ephrinA5 (ephrinA5 RBD). Unliganded eEphA2 forms linear arrays of staggered parallel receptors involving two patches of residues conserved across A-class Ephs. eEphA2-ephrinA5 RBD forms a more elaborate assembly, whose interfaces include the same conserved regions on eEphA2, but rearranged to accommodate ephrinA5 RBD. Cell-surface expression of mutant EphA2s showed that these interfaces are critical for localization at cell-cell contacts and activation-dependent degradation. Our results suggest a 'nucleation' mechanism whereby a limited number of ligand-receptor interactions 'seed' an arrangement of receptors which can propagate into extended signaling arrays

The effectiveness of interventions to change six health behaviours: a review of reviews

Background: Several World Health Organisation reports over recent years have highlighted the high incidence of chronic diseases such as diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer. Contributory factors include unhealthy diets, alcohol and tobacco use and sedentary lifestyles. This paper reports the findings of a review of reviews of behavioural change interventions to reduce unhealthy behaviours or promote healthy behaviours. We included six different health-related behaviours in the review: healthy eating, physical exercise, smoking, alcohol misuse, sexual risk taking (in young people) and illicit drug use. We excluded reviews which focussed on pharmacological treatments or those which required intensive treatments (e. g. for drug or alcohol dependency). Methods: The Cochrane Library, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (DARE) and several Ovid databases were searched for systematic reviews of interventions for the six behaviours (updated search 2008). Two reviewers applied the inclusion criteria, extracted data and assessed the quality of the reviews. The results were discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results: We included 103 reviews published between 1995 and 2008. The focus of interventions varied, but those targeting specific individuals were generally designed to change an existing behaviour (e. g. cigarette smoking, alcohol misuse), whilst those aimed at the general population or groups such as school children were designed to promote positive behaviours (e. g. healthy eating). Almost 50% (n = 48) of the reviews focussed on smoking (either prevention or cessation). Interventions that were most effective across a range of health behaviours included physician advice or individual counselling, and workplace- and school-based activities. Mass media campaigns and legislative interventions also showed small to moderate effects in changing health behaviours. Generally, the evidence related to short-term effects rather than sustained/longer-term impact and there was a relative lack of evidence on how best to address inequalities. Conclusions: Despite limitations of the review of reviews approach, it is encouraging that there are interventions that are effective in achieving behavioural change. Further emphasis in both primary studies and secondary analysis (e.g. systematic reviews) should be placed on assessing the differential effectiveness of interventions across different population subgroups to ensure that health inequalities are addressed.</p

International variation in ethics committee requirements: comparisons across five Westernised nations

BACKGROUND: Ethics committees typically apply the common principles of autonomy, nonmaleficence, beneficence and justice to research proposals but with variable weighting and interpretation. This paper reports a comparison of ethical requirements in an international cross-cultural study and discusses their implications. DISCUSSION: The study was run concurrently in New Zealand, UK, Israel, Canada and USA and involved testing hypotheses about believability of testimonies regarding alleged child sexual abuse. Ethics committee requirements to conduct this study ranged from nil in Israel to considerable amendments designed to minimise participant harm in New Zealand. Assessment of minimal risk is a complex and unreliable estimation further compounded by insufficient information on probabilities of particular individuals suffering harm. Estimating potential benefits/ risks ratio and protecting participants' autonomy similarly are not straightforward exercises. SUMMARY: Safeguarding moral/humane principles should be balanced with promotion of ethical research which does not impede research posing minimal risk to participants. In ensuring that ethical standards are met and research has scientific merit, ethics committees have obligations to participants (to meet their rights and protect them from harm); to society (to ensure good quality research is conducted); and to researchers (to treat their proposals with just consideration and respect). To facilitate meeting all these obligations, the preferable focus should be promotion of ethical research, rather than the prevention of unethical research, which inevitably results in the impediment of researchers from doing their work. How the ethical principles should be applied and balanced requires further consideration

Integrating personality research and animal contest theory: aggressiveness in the green swordtail <i>Xiphophorus helleri</i>

&lt;p&gt;Aggression occurs when individuals compete over limiting resources. While theoretical studies have long placed a strong emphasis on context-specificity of aggression, there is increasing recognition that consistent behavioural differences exist among individuals, and that aggressiveness may be an important component of individual personality. Though empirical studies tend to focus on one aspect or the other, we suggest there is merit in modelling both within-and among-individual variation in agonistic behaviour simultaneously. Here, we demonstrate how this can be achieved using multivariate linear mixed effect models. Using data from repeated mirror trials and dyadic interactions of male green swordtails, &lt;i&gt;Xiphophorus helleri&lt;/i&gt;, we show repeatable components of (co)variation in a suite of agonistic behaviour that is broadly consistent with a major axis of variation in aggressiveness. We also show that observed focal behaviour is dependent on opponent effects, which can themselves be repeatable but were more generally found to be context specific. In particular, our models show that within-individual variation in agonistic behaviour is explained, at least in part, by the relative size of a live opponent as predicted by contest theory. Finally, we suggest several additional applications of the multivariate models demonstrated here. These include testing the recently queried functional equivalence of alternative experimental approaches, (e. g., mirror trials, dyadic interaction tests) for assaying individual aggressiveness.&lt;/p&gt