What are the consequences of global banking for the international transmission of shocks? A quantitative analysis

The global financial crisis of 2008 was followed by a wave of regulatory reforms that affected large banks, especially those with a global presence. These reforms were reactive to the crisis. In this paper we propose a structural model of global banking that can be used proactively to perform counterfactual analysis on the effects of alternative regulatory policies. The structure of the model mimics the US regulatory framework and highlights the organizational choices that banks face when entering a foreign market: branching versus subsidiarization. When calibrated to match moments from a sample of European banks, the model is able to replicate the response of the US banking sector to the European sovereign debt crisis. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that pervasive subsidiarization, higher capital requirements, or ad hoc monetary policy interventions would have mitigated the effects of the crisis on US lending.https://www.nber.org/papers/w25203Published versio

Three papers in international economics and macroeconomics

This dissertation consists of three chapters in international economics and macroeconomics. The first chapter examines the impact of agents' educational and occupational choices on the relationship between trade and inequality. The second chapter studies the consequences of multinational banks' organizational choices for the international transmission of shocks. The third chapter considers the importance of geography for the structural estimation of real consumption growth. The first chapter revisits a classic question in international economics: what is the impact of trade on inequality? Empirically, I document that trade is positively associated with the share of high-skilled hours worked but not with the skill premium. This is true in both the short and long run. To explain this puzzle, I develop a tractable general equilibrium model featuring skill bias in productivity and endogenous educational and occupational choices. Quantitatively, I show the relevance of this model for the case of China's entry into the WTO and use the model to examine the impact of counterfactual trade policies. The second chapter (with Stefania Garetto and Jos\'e L. Fillat) examines how multinational banks' regulatory structures affect the transmission of financial shocks across countries. In the case of the European sovereign debt crisis, we demonstrate that the U.S. branches of foreign parent banks were more likely to contract their lending and lose deposits in response to stress in the parent country than were the subsidiaries of foreign parents. We develop a structural model of global banking, consistent with stylized facts about the banking industry. We quantify this model and use it as a laboratory to examine the impact of counterfactual regulatory regimes. The third chapter (with Jonathon P. Lecznar) studies the role of geography when incorporating product entry and exit into structural methods for estimating real consumption growth. We document three new facts related to geographic differences in consumption: (1) consumers in separate markets buy different products, (2) a product's market share varies geographically conditional on relative price, and (3) product variety growth and its cyclicality vary geographically. Quantitatively, we find that focusing on changes in aggregate product variety overstates real consumption growth by 2.75 percentage points

Matching Fleet Medical Readiness to the New Naval Strategy

In any operational logistc equation, history clearly demonstrates that military medical capability, composed of sound doctrine and supported by mobilization-ready assets, is not only an integral component of an effective force but also an absolute requirement for its success. In today\u27s Navy, unfortu­ nately, fleet medical support doctrine remains insufficiently defined, inade quately validated, end not specifically integrated into the Line\u27s •warfighting concepts of operations. These limitations render it difficult to define requirements for medical readiness in the fleet. Furthermore, such ill-defined readiness goals prevent the setting of standards for measuring or reporting progress

Manganese 3×3 and √3 × √3-R30º structures and structural phase transition on w-GaN(0001̄) studied by scanning tunneling microscopy and first-principles theory

et al.Manganese deposited on the N-polar face of wurtzite gallium nitride [GaN (0001̄)] results in two unique surface reconstructions, depending on the deposition temperature. At lower temperature (less than 105ºC), it is found that a metastable 3×3 structure forms. Mild annealing of this Mn 3×3 structure leads to an irreversible phase transition to a different, much more stable √3×√3-R30º structure which can withstand high-temperature annealing. Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and reflection high-energy electron diffraction data are compared with results from first-principles theoretical calculations. Theory finds a lowest-energy model for the 3×3 structure consisting of Mn trimers bonded to the Ga adlayer atoms but not with N atoms. The lowest-energy model for the more stable √3×√3-R30º structure involves Mn atoms substituting for Ga within the Ga adlayer and thus bonding with N atoms. Tersoff-Hamman simulations of the resulting lowest-energy structural models are found to be in very good agreement with the experimental STM images.Research supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Materials Sciences and Engineering under Award No. DE-FG02-06ER46317 (STM studies of nanoscale spintronic nitride systems) and by the National Science Foundation under Award No. 0730257 (advancing nanospintronics through international collaboration). V.F. and M.A.B. would like to acknowledge support from CONICET (PIP0038) and ANPCyT (PICT1857) as well as the Ohio Supercomputing Center for computer time. P.O. was supported by Spanish MICINN (FIS2009-12721-C04-01, FIS2012-37549-C05-02 and CSD2007-00050).Peer reviewe

Factors Influencing Final Outcomes in Patients with Shoulder Pain: A Retrospective Review

Study Design Retrospective cohort. Introduction Rehabilitation interventions are commonly prescribed for patients with shoulder pain, but it is unclear what factors may help clinicians\u27 prognosis for final outcomes. Purpose of the Study The purpose of this study is to determine what factors are the best predictors of improved patient-reported outcomes at discharge in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Retrospective chart review of 128 patients presenting with shoulder pain to an outpatient physical therapy clinic. Chart review captured data regarding patient demographics, treatment interventions, patient history, and patient-reported outcome scores. The primary dependent variable was the overall change score of the QuickDASH (initial to discharge). Thirty-eight predictor variables were entered into a forward stepwise multivariate linear regression model to determine which variables and to what degree contributed to the dependent variable. Results The linear regression model identified 5 predictor variables that yielded an R = 0.74 and adjusted R2 = 0.538 (P \u3c .001). The 5 predictor variables identified in order of explained variance are QuickDASH change at the fifth visit, a total number of visits, initial QuickDASH score, scapular retraction exercise, and age. Discussion Early change scores, equal to minimal detectable change scores on patient-reported outcomes appear to be strong indicators that patients with shoulder pain are on a positive trajectory to benefit from rehabilitation. Conclusion Using patient-reported outcomes throughout care, not just at the start and end of care, will provide therapist feedback regarding patient\u27s progress and indicate treatment effectiveness. Levels of Evidence 4

A Nonlinear Super-Exponential Rational Model of Speculative Financial Bubbles

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic finite-time singularity formula transforms a Gaussian white noise into a rich time series possessing all the stylized facts of empirical prices, as well as accelerated speculative bubbles preceding crashes. We use the formula to invert the two years of price history prior to the recent crash on the Nasdaq (april 2000) and prior to the crash in the Hong Kong market associated with the Asian crisis in early 1994. These complex price dynamics are captured using only one exponent controlling the explosion, the variance and mean of the underlying random walk. This offers a new and powerful detection tool of speculative bubbles and herding behavior.Comment: Latex document of 24 pages including 5 eps figure

Use of Dual Polarization Radar in Validation of Satellite Precipitation Measurements: Rationale and Opportunities

Dual-polarization weather radars have evolved significantly in the last three decades culminating in the operational deployment by the National Weather Service. In addition to operational applications in the weather service, dual-polarization radars have shown significant potential in contributing to the research fields of ground based remote sensing of rainfall microphysics, study of precipitation evolution and hydrometeor classification. Furthermore the dual-polarization radars have also raised the awareness of radar system aspects such as calibration. Microphysical characterization of precipitation and quantitative precipitation estimation are important applications that are critical in the validation of satellite borne precipitation measurements and also serves as a valuable tool in algorithm development. This paper presents the important role played by dual-polarization radar in validating space borne precipitation measurements. Starting from a historical evolution, the various configurations of dual-polarization radar are presented. Examples of raindrop size distribution retrievals and hydrometeor type classification are discussed. The quantitative precipitation estimation is a product of direct relevance to space borne observations. During the TRMM program substantial advancement was made with ground based polarization radars specially collecting unique observations in the tropics which are noted. The scientific accomplishments of relevance to space borne measurements of precipitation are summarized. The potential of dual-polarization radars and opportunities in the era of global precipitation measurement mission is also discussed

On Luminous Blue Variables as the Progenitors of Core-Collapse Supernovae, especially Type IIn Supernovae

Luminous blue variable (LBV) stars are very massive, luminous, unstable stars that suffer frequent eruptions. In the last few years, these stars have been proposed as the direct progenitors of some core-collapse supernovae (SNe), particularly Type IIn SNe, in conflict with stellar evolution theory. In this paper we investigate various scenarios wherein LBV stars have been suggested as the immediate progenitors of SNe. Many of these suggestions stem from the fact that the SNe appear to be expanding in a high density medium, which has been interpreted as resulting from a wind with a high mass-loss rate. Others arise due to perceived similarities between the SN characteristics and those of LBVs. Only in the case of SN 2005gl do we find a valid possibility for an LBV-like progenitor. Other scenarios encounter various levels of difficulty. The evidence that points to LBVs as direct core-collapse SNe progenitors is far from convincing. High mass-loss rates are often deduced by making assumptions regarding the wind parameters, which are contradicted by the results themselves. A high density need not necessarily imply a high wind mass-loss rate: wind shocks sweeping up the surrounding medium may give a high density shell with a low associated wind mass-loss rate. High densities may also arise due to wind clumps, or due to a previous LBV phase before the SN explodes as a Wolf-Rayet star. Some Type IIn SNe appear to signify more a phase in the life of a SN than a class of SNe, and may arise from more than one type of progenitor. A Wolf-Rayet phase that lasts for a few thousand years or less could be one of the more probable progenitors of Type IIns, and channels for creating short-lived W-R phases are briefly discussed.Comment: Accepted to MNRAS. 13 pages, 1 figur

Synthesis of the elements in stars: forty years of progress

Forty years ago Burbidge, Burbidge, Fowler, and Hoyle combined what we would now call fragmentary evidence from nuclear physics, stellar evolution and the abundances of elements and isotopes in the solar system as well as a few stars into a synthesis of remarkable ingenuity. Their review provided a foundation for forty years of research in all of the aspects of low energy nuclear experiments and theory, stellar modeling over a wide range of mass and composition, and abundance studies of many hundreds of stars, many of which have shown distinct evidence of the processes suggested by B2FH. In this review we summarize progress in each of these fields with emphasis on the most recent developments

Wee1-Regulated Apoptosis Mediated by the Crk Adaptor Protein in Xenopus Egg Extracts

Many of the biochemical reactions of apoptotic cell death, including mitochondrial cytochrome c release and caspase activation, can be reconstituted in cell-free extracts derived from Xenopus eggs. In addition, because caspase activation does not occur until the egg extract has been incubated for several hours on the bench, upstream signaling processes occurring before full apoptosis are rendered accessible to biochemical manipulation. We reported previously that the adaptor protein Crk is required for apoptotic signaling in egg extracts (Evans, E.K., W. Lu, S.L. Strum, B.J. Mayer, and S. Kornbluth. 1997. EMBO (Eur. Mol. Biol. Organ.) J. 16:230–241). Moreover, we demonstrated that removal of Crk Src homology (SH)2 or SH3 interactors from the extracts prevented apoptosis. We now report the finding that the relevant Crk SH2-interacting protein, important for apoptotic signaling in the extract, is the well-known cell cycle regulator, Wee1. We have demonstrated a specific interaction between tyrosine-phosphorylated Wee1 and the Crk SH2 domain and have shown that recombinant Wee1 can restore apoptosis to an extract depleted of SH2 interactors. Moreover, exogenous Wee1 accelerated apoptosis in egg extracts, and this acceleration was largely dependent on the presence of endogenous Crk protein. As other Cdk inhibitors, such as roscovitine and Myt1, did not act like Wee1 to accelerate apoptosis, we propose that Wee1–Crk complexes signal in a novel apoptotic pathway, which may be unrelated to Wee1's role as a cell cycle regulator