Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Plant–soil feedback of native and range-expanding plant species is insensitive to temperature

Temperature change affects many aboveground and belowground ecosystem processes. Here we investigate the effect of a 5°C temperature increase on plant–soil feedback. We compare plant species from a temperate climate region with immigrant plants that originate from warmer regions and have recently shifted their range polewards. We tested whether the magnitude of plant–soil feedback is affected by ambient temperature and whether the effect of temperature differs between these groups of plant species. Six European/Eurasian plant species that recently colonized the Netherlands (non-natives), and six related species (natives) from the Netherlands were selected. Plant–soil feedback of these species was determined by comparing performance in conspecific and heterospecific soils. In order to test the effect of temperature on these plant–soil feedback interactions, the experiments were performed at two greenhouse temperatures of 20/15°C and 25/20°C, respectively. Inoculation with unconditioned soil had the same effect on natives and non-natives. However, the effect of conspecific conditioned soil was negative compared to heterospecific soil for natives, but was positive for non-natives. In both cases, plant–soil interactions were not affected by temperature. Therefore, we conclude that the temperature component of climate change does not affect the direction, or strength of plant–soil feedback, neither for native nor for non-native plant species. However, as the non-natives have a more positive soil feedback than natives, climate warming may introduce new plant species in temperate regions that have less soil-borne control of abundance

Transient Reversal of Episome Silencing Precedes VP16-Dependent Transcription during Reactivation of Latent HSV-1 in Neurons

Herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1) establishes latency in peripheral neurons, creating a permanent source of recurrent infections. The latent genome is assembled into chromatin and lytic cycle genes are silenced. Processes that orchestrate reentry into productive replication (reactivation) remain poorly understood. We have used latently infected cultures of primary superior cervical ganglion (SCG) sympathetic neurons to profile viral gene expression following a defined reactivation stimulus. Lytic genes are transcribed in two distinct phases, differing in their reliance on protein synthesis, viral DNA replication and the essential initiator protein VP16. The first phase does not require viral proteins and has the appearance of a transient, widespread de-repression of the previously silent lytic genes. This allows synthesis of viral regulatory proteins including VP16, which accumulate in the cytoplasm of the host neuron. During the second phase, VP16 and its cellular cofactor HCF-1, which is also predominantly cytoplasmic, concentrate in the nucleus where they assemble an activator complex on viral promoters. The transactivation function supplied by VP16 promotes increased viral lytic gene transcription leading to the onset of genome amplification and the production of infectious viral particles. Thus regulated localization of de novo synthesized VP16 is likely to be a critical determinant of HSV-1 reactivation in sympathetic neurons

Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for anxiety and depression in adults with mild intellectual disabilities (ID): a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background: Several studies have showed that people with intellectual disabilities (ID) have suitable skills to undergo cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT). Case studies have reported successful use of cognitive behavioural therapy techniques (with adaptations) in people with ID. Modified cognitive behavioural therapy may be a feasible and effective approach for the treatment of depression, anxiety, and other mood disorders in ID. To date, two studies have reported group-based manaulised cognitive behavioural treatment programs for depression in people with mild ID. However, there is no individual manualised programme for anxiety or depression in people with intellectual disabilities. The aims of the study are to determine the feasibility of conducting a randomised controlled trial for CBT in people with ID. The data will inform the power calculation and other aspects of carrying out a definitive randomised controlled trial.Methods: Thirty participants with mild ID will be allocated randomly to either CBT or treatment as usual (TAU). The CBT group will receive up to 20 hourly individual CBT over a period of 4 months. TAU is the standard treatment which is available to any adult with an intellectual disability who is referred to the intellectual disability service (including care management, community support, medical, nursing or social support). Beck Youth Inventories (Beck Anxiety Inventory & Beck Depression Inventory) will be administered at baseline; end of treatment (4 months) and at six months to evaluate the changes in depression and anxiety. Client satisfaction, quality of life and the health economics will be secondary outcomes.Discussion: The broad outcome of the study will be to produce clear guidance for therapists to apply an established psychological intervention and identify how and whether it works with people with intellectual disabilities

Local Adaptation of Aboveground Herbivores towards Plant Phenotypes Induced by Soil Biota

Background: Soil biota may trigger strong physiological responses in plants and consequently induce distinct phenotypes. Plant phenotype, in turn, has a strong impact on herbivore performance. Here, we tested the hypothesis that aboveground herbivores are able to adapt to plant phenotypes induced by soil biota. Methodology and Principal Findings: We bred spider mites for 15 generations on snap beans with three different belowground biotic interactions: (i) no biota (to serve as control), (ii) arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi and (ii) root-feeding nematodes. Subsequently, we conducted a reciprocal selection experiment using these spider mites, which had been kept on the differently treated plants. Belowground treatments induced changes in plant biomass, nutrient composition and water content. No direct chemical defence through cyanogenesis was detected in any of the plant groups. Growth rates of spider mites were higher on the ecotypes on which they were bred for 15 generations, although the statistical significance disappeared for mites from the nematode treatment when corrected for all multiple comparisons. Conclusion/Significance: These results demonstrate that belowground biota may indeed impose selection on the aboveground insect herbivores mediated by the host plant. The observed adaptation was driven by variable quantitativ

fMRI scanner noise interaction with affective neural processes

The purpose of the present study was the investigation of interaction effects between functional MRI scanner noise and affective neural processes. Stimuli comprised of psychoacoustically balanced musical pieces, expressing three different emotions (fear, neutral, joy). Participants (N=34, 19 female) were split into two groups, one subjected to continuous scanning and another subjected to sparse temporal scanning that features decreased scanner noise. Tests for interaction effects between scanning group (sparse/quieter vs continuous/noisier) and emotion (fear, neutral, joy) were performed. Results revealed interactions between the affective expression of stimuli and scanning group localized in bilateral auditory cortex, insula and visual cortex (calcarine sulcus). Post-hoc comparisons revealed that during sparse scanning, but not during continuous scanning, BOLD signals were significantly stronger for joy than for fear, as well as stronger for fear than for neutral in bilateral auditory cortex. During continuous scanning, but not during sparse scanning, BOLD signals were significantly stronger for joy than for neutral in the left auditory cortex and for joy than for fear in the calcarine sulcus. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study to show a statistical interaction effect between scanner noise and affective processes and extends evidence suggesting scanner noise to be an important factor in functional MRI research that can affect and distort affective brain processes

Factors associated with diversity, quantity and zoonotic potential of ectoparasites on urban mice and voles

Wild rodents are important hosts for tick larvae but co-infestations with other mites and insects are largely neglected. Small rodents were trapped at four study sites in Berlin, Germany, to quantify their ectoparasite diversity. Host-specific, spatial and temporal occurrence of ectoparasites was determined to assess their influence on direct and indirect zoonotic risk due to mice and voles in an urban agglomeration. Rodent-associated arthropods were diverse, including 63 species observed on six host species with an overall prevalence of 99%. The tick Ixodes ricinus was the most prevalent species, found on 56% of the rodents. The trapping location clearly affected the presence of different rodent species and, therefore, the occurrence of particular host-specific parasites. In Berlin, fewer temporary and periodic parasite species as well as non-parasitic species (fleas, chiggers and nidicolous Gamasina) were detected than reported from rural areas. In addition, abundance of parasites with low host-specificity (ticks, fleas and chiggers) apparently decreased with increasing landscape fragmentation associated with a gradient of urbanisation. In contrast, stationary ectoparasites, closely adapted to the rodent host, such as the fur mites Myobiidae and Listrophoridae, were most abundant at the two urban sites. A direct zoonotic risk of infection for people may only be posed by Nosopsyllus fasciatus fleas, which were prevalent even in the city centre. More importantly, peridomestic rodents clearly supported the life cycle of ticks in the city as hosts for their subadult stages. In addition to trapping location, season, host species, body condition and host sex, infestation with fleas, gamasid Laelapidae mites and prostigmatic Myobiidae mites were associated with significantly altered abundance of I. ricinus larvae on mice and voles. Whether this is caused by predation, grooming behaviour or interaction with the host immune system is unclear. The present study constitutes a basis to identify interactions and vector function of rodent-associated arthropods and their potential impact on zoonotic diseases

Metformin reduces liver glucose production by inhibition of fructose-1-6-bisphosphatase.

Metformin is a first-line drug for the treatment of individuals with type 2 diabetes, yet its precise mechanism of action remains unclear. Metformin exerts its antihyperglycemic action primarily through lowering hepatic glucose production (HGP). This suppression is thought to be mediated through inhibition of mitochondrial respiratory complex I, and thus elevation of 5'-adenosine monophosphate (AMP) levels and the activation of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), though this proposition has been challenged given results in mice lacking hepatic AMPK. Here we report that the AMP-inhibited enzyme fructose-1,6-bisphosphatase-1 (FBP1), a rate-controlling enzyme in gluconeogenesis, functions as a major contributor to the therapeutic action of metformin. We identified a point mutation in FBP1 that renders it insensitive to AMP while sparing regulation by fructose-2,6-bisphosphate (F-2,6-P2), and knock-in (KI) of this mutant in mice significantly reduces their response to metformin treatment. We observe this during a metformin tolerance test and in a metformin-euglycemic clamp that we have developed. The antihyperglycemic effect of metformin in high-fat diet-fed diabetic FBP1-KI mice was also significantly blunted compared to wild-type controls. Collectively, we show a new mechanism of action for metformin and provide further evidence that molecular targeting of FBP1 can have antihyperglycemic effects