Old Tools, New Ways of Using Them: Harnessing Expert Opinions to Plan for Surprise in Marine Socio-Ecological Systems

Copyright © 2019 Gladstone-Gallagher, Hope, Bulmer, Clark, Stephenson, Mangan, Rullens, Siwicka, Thomas, Pilditch, Savage and Thrush. With globally accelerating rates of environmental disturbance, coastal marine ecosystems are increasingly prone to non-linear regime shifts that result in a loss of ecosystem function and services. A lack of early-detection methods, and an over reliance on limits-based approaches means that these tipping points manifest as surprises. Consequently, marine ecosystems are notoriously difficult to manage, and scientists, managers, and policy makers are paralyzed in a spiral of ecosystem degradation. This paralysis is caused by the inherent need to quantify the risk and uncertainty that surrounds every decision. While progress toward forecasting tipping points is ongoing and important, an interim approach is desperately needed to enable scientists to make recommendations that are credible and defensible in the face of deep uncertainty. We discuss how current tools for developing risk assessments and scenario planning, coupled with expert opinions, can be adapted to bridge gaps in quantitative data, enabling scientists and managers to prepare for many plausible futures. We argue that these tools are currently underutilized in a marine cumulative effects context but offer a way to inform decisions in the interim while predictive models and early warning signals remain imperfect. This approach will require redefining the way we think about managing for ecological surprise to include actions that not only limit drivers of tipping points but increase socio-ecological resilience to yield satisfactory outcomes under multiple possible futures that are inherently uncertain

Social-ecological connections across land, water, and sea demand a reprioritization of environmental management

Despite many sectors of society striving for sustainability in environmental management, humans often fail to identify and act on the connections and processes responsible for social-ecological tipping points. Part of the problem is the fracturing of environmental management and social-ecological research into ecosystem domains (land, freshwater, and sea), each with different scales and resolution of data acquisition and distinct management approaches. We present a perspective on the social-ecological connections across ecosystem domains that emphasize the need for management reprioritization to effectively connect these domains. We identify critical nexus points related to the drivers of tipping points, scales of governance, and the spatial and temporal dimensions of social-ecological processes. We combine real-world examples and a simple dynamic model to illustrate the implications of slow management responses to environmental impacts that traverse ecosystem domains. We end with guidance on management and research opportunities that arise from this cross-domain lens to foster greater opportunity to achieve environmental and sustainability goals.Peer reviewe

Nature's contributions to people and quality of life

In this chapter, we provide an assessment of each of nature's contributions to people (NCP) and to the quality of life of societies in Europe and Central Asia. We recognize that these contributions are diverse, reflecting the multiple societies that inhabit the region and the multiple interlinked dimensions of nature and society. For that reason, the present chapter seeks to respect and to represent the multiple values of nature's contributions to people and to include the different knowledge systems that provide understanding of our relationship with nature

Ecological network analysis of traits reveals variable response capacity to stress

Response diversity increases the potential 'options' for ecological communities to respond to stress (i.e. response capacity). An indicator of community response diversity is the diversity of different traits associated with their capacity to be resistant to stress, to recover and to regulate ecosystem functions. We conducted a network analysis of traits using benthic macroinvertebrate community data from a large-scale field experiment to explore the loss of response diversity along environmental gradients. We elevated sediment nutrient concentrations (a process that occurs with eutrophication) at 24 sites (in 15 estuaries) with varying environmental conditions (water column turbidity and sediment properties). Macroinvertebrate community response capacity to nutrient stress was dependent on the baseline trait network complexity in the ambient community (i.e. non-enriched sediments). The greater the complexity of the baseline network, the less variable the network response to nutrient stress was; in contrast, more variable responses to nutrient stress occurred with simpler networks. Thus, stressors or environmental variables that shift baseline network complexity also shift the capacity for these ecosystems to respond to additional stressors. Empirical studies that explore the mechanisms responsible for loss of resilience are essential to inform our ability to predict changes in ecological states.Peer reviewe

Supplementary material for: Ecological network analysis of traits reveals variable response capacity to stress

The supplementary material contains extra methodological detail and results to complement the pape

Survey of local perceptions of the livelihood and conservation benefits delivered by small-scale livelihood projects in eastern Madagascar

This archive consists of a) the primary dataset and b) accompanying documents for the survey of local perceptions of the livelihood and conservation benefits delivered by micro projects in the Ankeniheny Zahemena Corridor (CAZ), Madagascar, conducted as part of work package 6 (WP6) of the p4ges project (Can capturing global ecosystem service values reduce poverty). WP6 is concerned with the socio-economic aspects of the research undertaken within p4ges project. The objective of the survey was to document local perceptions of both the livelihood and conservation benefits delivered by small-scale livelihood projects (‘micro projects’) that had been conducted in the CAZ region from 2010 to 2014, and to examine how the type of livelihood project (e.g., agriculture, beekeeping, fish farming or livestock production) influenced the benefits obtained. The survey included questions about how the small-scale livelihood projects were chosen, participation in the livelihood projects, perceived livelihood benefits provided by the projects, perceived negative impacts of the projects on livelihoods, levels of participant satisfaction with the way in which projects were implemented, potential conservation goals of the micro projects, and links between micro projects and conservation outcomes. It also included basic socioeconomic information about participants. The data was collected between Sept and November 2015 and was comprised of surveys of 611 participants who had participated in 61 micro projects (including 16 agricultural projects, 10 beekeeping projects, 17 fish farming projects and 18 livestock projects).There has been a recent explosion of interest in market mechanisms to capture global ecosystem service values. An argument in their favour is that they can, in principle, benefit the poor by increasing the value of their resources. However, the effect on poverty is not easily predicted and depends on a) the structure and distribution of payments (how and when payments are made, and to whom) and b) how land-use changes driven by the payments influence the supply of locally important ecosystem services and livelihood options to poor people. Our central research question is: How can international ecosystem service payment schemes (specifically for carbon sequestration/storage and biodiversity conservation) most effectively reduce poverty in low-income countries, given biophysical, economic and political realities? This question is of vital importance as there have been few, if any, detailed multi-dimensional assessments of either existing programmes or the conditions needed for optimal programme design. We focus on a single ecosystem (tropical forest) in a single low-income country (Madagascar) to achieve a uniquely complete analysis. Links to global structures involved in developing international payment for ecosystem services schemes (PES) ensure the results will be influential more widely. Major land-use changes which international payments are incentivizing include: reduced deforestation, targeted restoration or reforestation (through fire and grazing management or replanting) and changes in rules, or enforcement of rules, governing access to harvesting wild products. Welfare impacts on the poor will be different under these different approaches, and they vary in their potential for producing global benefits. Our central objectives are: 1) to understand effects on ecosystem service flows, to local and global beneficiaries, of the land-use changes incentivized under alternative PES approaches, and the spatial and temporal trade-offs in these flows; 2)to estimate the magnitude and distribution of net local welfare impacts from the range of PES approaches (incorporating both the effects of payments and land-use change) and the likely influence of different local and regional institutional structures; 3) to fully quantify the land-use changes and the payments distributed in an existing payment scheme; and 4) to develop effective recommendations for improved international PES schemes that maximise their potential for delivering poverty alleviation, given biophysical, economic and political realities.</p