Role of Serial Polio Seroprevalence Studies in Guiding Implementation of the Polio Eradication Initiative in Kano, Nigeria: 2011-2014.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria was one of 3 polio-endemic countries before it was de-listed in September 2015 by the World Health Organization, following interruption of transmission of the poliovirus. During 2011-2014, Nigeria conducted serial polio seroprevalence surveys (SPS) in Kano Metropolitan Area, comprising 8 local government areas (LGAs) in Kano that is considered very high risk (VHR) for polio, to monitor performance of the polio eradication program and guide the program in the adoption of innovative strategies. METHODS: Study subjects who resided in any of the 8 local government areas of Kano Metropolitan Area and satisfied age criteria were recruited from patients at Murtala Mohammed Specialist Hospital (Kano) for 3 seroprevalence surveys. The same methods were used to conduct each survey. RESULTS: The 2011 study showed seroprevalence values of 81%, 75%, and 73% for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively, among infants aged 6-9 months age. Among children aged 36-47 months, seroprevalence values were greater (91%, 87%, and 85% for poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively).In 2013, the results showed that the seroprevalence was unexpectedly low among infants aged 6-9 months, remained high among children aged 36-47 months, and increased minimally among children aged 5-9 years and those aged 10-14 years. The baseline seroprevalence among infants aged 6-9 months in 2014 was better than that in 2013. CONCLUSIONS: The results from the polio seroprevalence surveys conducted in Kano Metropolitan Area in 2011, 2013, and 2014 served to assess the trends in immunity and program performance, as well as to guide the program, leading to various interventions being implemented with good effect, as evidenced by the reduction of poliovirus circulation in Kano

Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of “leaving no one behind”. Understanding today’s gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990–2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Routine immunization community surveys as a tool for guiding program implementation in Kaduna state, Nigeria 2015–2016

Abstract Background Routine childhood immunization remains an important strategy for achieving polio eradication and maintaining a polio-free world. To address gaps in reported administrative coverage data, community surveys were conducted to verify coverage, and guide strategic interventions for improved coverage. Methods We reviewed the conduct of community surveys by World Health Organization (WHO) field volunteers deployed as part of the surge capacity to Kaduna state and the use of survey results between July 2015 and June 2016. Monthly and quarterly collation and use of these data to guide the deployment of various interventions aimed at strengthening routine immunization in the state. Results Over 97,000 children aged 0–11 months were surveyed by 138 field volunteers across 237 of the 255 wards in Kaduna state. Fully or appropriately immunized children increased from 67% in the fourth quarter of 2015 to 76% by the end of the second quarter of 2016. Within the period reviewed, the number of local government areas with < 80% coverage reduced from eight to zero. Conclusions The routine conduct of community surveys by volunteers to inform interventions has shown an improvement in the vaccination status of children 0–11 months in Kaduna state and remains a useful tool in addressing administrative data quality issues

Profile of polio-compatible cases in Nigeria, 2006–2016

Abstract Background The tremendous progress made by Nigeria towards polio eradication has recently suffered a setback with the isolation of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) type 2 from environmental samples and confirmation of four wild poliovirus (WPV) cases from acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases, with dates of onset of paralysis in July and August 2016. All these viruses were confirmed from the security-challenged northeastern state of Borno. Polio-compatible cases exist in Nigeria, and they indicate surveillance failure. Surveillance, therefore, has to be strengthened for the country to achieve certification. The objective of this paper is to highlight the epidemiological profile and magnitude of polio-compatible cases in Nigeria during the reporting period, as well as immunization and surveillance response activities conducted to close immunity and surveillance gaps. Methods We conducted a retrospective review of AFP surveillance performance and polio-compatible cases in Nigeria between 2006 and 2016 from the AFP database at the World Health Organization Country Office. We also reviewed and compared key epidemiological features of polio-compatible cases with those of wild poliovirus cases during the reporting period. Results The non-polio AFP rate improved from 6.5 in 2006 to 19.5 in 2016. The corresponding figures for stool adequacy rates were 88 and 98%. The total number of polio-compatible cases reported during the reporting period was 888, with the highest number (194) of cases reported in 2006 and the least (24) in 2016. Clusters of polio-compatible cases were reported every year during the reporting period except in 2015. The highest number (65) of polio-compatible cases in clusters was reported in 2006. The key epidemiological features of polio-compatible and wild poliovirus cases were similar. Conclusion AFP surveillance performance has improved significantly during the reporting period. Surveillance gaps still existed as shown by the presence of orphan viruses and polio-compatible cases, and these gaps need to be identified and closed to achieve certification

Environmental, economic and socio-cultural risk factors of recurrent seasonal epidemics of cerebrospinal meningitis in Kebbi state, northwestern Nigeria: a qualitative approach

Abstract Background Kebbi State remains the epicentre of the seasonal epidemic meningitis in northwestern Nigeria despite interventions. In this setting, no previous study has been conducted to understand the risk factors of the recurrent meningitis epidemics using qualitative approach. Consequently, this study intends to explore and better understand the environmental, economic and socio-cultural factors of recurrent seasonal epidemic meninigitis using a qualitative approach. Methods We conducted in-depth interview (40 IDIs) and focus group discussions (6 FGDs) in two local government areas (LGAs) in Kebbi State, Northwestern Nigeria to understand the environmental, economic and socio-cultural factors of recurrent meningitis outbreaks. Routine surveillance data were used to guide the selection of settlements, wards and local government areas based on the frequency of re-occurrences and magnitude of the outbreaks. Results The discussions revealed certain elements capable of potentiating the recurrence of seasonal meningitis epidemics. These are environmental issues, such as poorly-designed built environment, crowded sleeping and poorly ventilated rooms, dry and dusty weather condition. Other elements were economic challenges, such as poor household living conditions, neighbourhood deprivation, and socio-cultural elements, such as poor healthcare seeking behaviour, social mixing patterns, inadequate vaccination and vaccine hesitancy. Conclusion As suggested by participants, there are potential environmental, socio-cultural and economic factors in the study area that might have been driving recurrent epidemics of cerebrospinal meningitis. In a bid to addressing this perennial challenge, governments at various levels supported by health development partners such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), United Nation Habitat, and United National Development Programme can use the findings of this study to design policies and programmes targeting these factors towards complementing other preventive and control strategies