Foot and mouth disease in Zambia: Spatial and temporal distributions of outbreaks, assessment of clusters and implications for control

Zambia has been experiencing low livestock productivity as well as trade restrictions owing to the occurrence of foot and mouth disease (FMD), but little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in these endemic settings. The fundamental questions relate to the spatio-temporal distribution of FMD cases and what determines their occurrence. A retrospective review of FMD cases in Zambia from 1981 to 2012 was conducted using geographical information systems and the SaTScan software package. Information was collected from peer-reviewed journal articles, conference proceedings, laboratory reports, unpublished scientific reports and grey literature. A space–time permutation probability model using a varying time window of one year was used to scan for areas with high infection rates. The spatial scan statistic detected a significant purely spatial cluster around the Mbala–Isoka area between 2009 and 2012, with secondary clusters in Sesheke–Kazungula in 2007 and 2008, the Kafue flats in 2004 and 2005 and Livingstone in 2012. This study provides evidence of the existence of statistically significant FMD clusters and an increase in occurrence in Zambia between 2004 and 2012. The identified clusters agree with areas known to be at high risk of FMD. The FMD virus transmission dynamics and the heterogeneous variability in risk within these locations may need further investigation

Foot-and-mouth disease control in Zambia: A review of the current situation

Zambia has been experiencing low livestock productivity as well as trade restrictions owing to the occurrence of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and contagious bovine pleura pneumonia (CBPP). Foot-and-mouth disease was first recorded in Zambia in 1933 in the Western Province and since then the country has experienced repeated outbreaks. Bearing in mind the pressure that may be existing on the many risk factors for FMD including climate change, there is need to review our knowledge on FMD control. We present the spatial distribution of the FMD outbreaks that have been recorded in Zambia in the last twenty years, and the effect of the vaccinations and movement control that have been applied. We propose further strain characterisation of previous FMD outbreaks, including full sequence of VP1 gene and the 5’UTR site. The data will be geo-coded and populated with risk factor attributes. We also present preliminary findings of the buffalo and cattle probang sampling that was conducted in Lochnivar and Kafue National Park. We further probang sampled 25 buffalo at each interface area in Sioma Ngwezi, Lukusuzi and Lower Zambezi national parks. Villages in close proximity to the buffalo populations as well as those not in close proximity will be multistage cluster sampled for comparison. The data will be geo-coded and populated with risk factor and foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) characterisation attributes. Data collected using a pre-tested structured questionnaire will be geo-coded and populated with identified risk factors and stored in a database and will be spatially modelled to determine their effect on FMD occurrence and control measures. New outbreaks of FMD that may occur will be investigated to find out if there are new strains involved, species affected and predisposing risk factors. The authors conclude that impacts of FMD on livelihoods if appropriate control measures are not put in place are far more devastating especially at community level. Presented with the current poverty levels failure to institute result oriented control measures will exacerbate the already life-threatening situation

Serological Survey of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Buffaloes ( Syncerus caffer

A study was conducted to determine the serotypes of foot-and-mouth disease viruses (FMDV) circulating in African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) from selected areas in Zambia. Sera and probang samples were collected between 2011 and 2012 and analysed for presence of antibodies against FMDV while probang samples were used to isolate the FMDV by observing cytopathic effect (CPE). Samples with CPE were further analysed using antigen ELISA. High FMD seroprevalence was observed and antibodies to all the three Southern African Territories (SAT) serotypes were detected in four study areas represented as follows: SAT2 was 72.7 percent; SAT1 was 62.6 percent; and SAT3 was 26.2 percent. Mixed infections accounted for 68.6 percent of those that were tested positive. For probang samples, CPE were observed in three of the samples, while the antigen ELISA results showed positivity and for SAT1 (n=1) and SAT2 (n=2). It is concluded that FMDV is highly prevalent in Zambian buffaloes which could play an important role in the epidemiology of the disease. Therefore livestock reared at interface with the game parks should be included in all routine FMDV vaccination programmes

A Three-Dimensional Constitutive Model for Rocks Based on a Strain-Dependent Elastic Modulus

AbstractOur research group previously proposed a simple two-dimensional (2D) constitutive model for rocks to simulate not only the axial stress–axial strain relationship, but also the axial stress–lateral strain relationship, with few complicated equations. However, the failure envelope that it predicted was linear, and it did not consider the effect of the intermediate principal stress (σ2). In the present study, the authors modify this simple 2D model to have a convex failure criterion. Then, the model is extended to a simple three-dimensional (3D) model that well approximates true triaxial stress–strain curves for real rocks under specific values of σ2 and σ3 and uses only four parameters. However, the predicted peak stress–σ2 relationship is linear. Finally, a modified 3D model was developed, which exhibited the true triaxial convex failure criterion. The equations in this model are simpler than the conventional true triaxial failure criteria. The proposed models can be implemented with a finite element method to improve the design of rock structures

Practices of traditional beef farmers in their production and marketing of cattle in Zambia

Understanding the practices of traditional cattle farmers in developing countries is an important factor in the development of appropriate, pro-poor disease control policies, and in formulating regional-specific production incentives that can improve productivity. This paper describes the production, husbandry practices, economics, and constraints of traditional cattle farming in Zambia. A cross-sectional study design was used to obtain data from traditional cattle farmers (n = 699) using a structured questionnaire. Data analyses were carried out using SPSS and STATA statistical packages. The results revealed that the majority [65% (95% CI: 59.3–71.1)] of farmers practised a transhumant cattle herding system under communal grazing. In these transhumant herding systems, animal husbandry and management systems were found to be of poor quality, in terms of supplementary feeding, vaccination coverage, deworming, uptake of veterinary services, usage of artificial insemination, and dip tanks all being low or absent. East Coast Fever was the most common disease, affecting 60% (95% CI: 56.4–63.7) of farmers. Cattle sales were low, as farmers only sold a median of two cattle per household per year. Crop farming was found to be the main source of farm income (47%) in agro-pastoralist communities, followed by cattle farming (28%) and other sources (25%). The median cost of production in the surveyed provinces was reported at US$316, while that of revenue from cattle and cattle products sales was estimated at US$885 per herd per year. This translates to an estimated gross margin of US$569, representing 64.3% of revenue. There is considerable diversity in disease distribution, animal husbandry practices, economics, and challenges in traditional cattle production in different locations of Zambia. Therefore, to improve the productivity of the traditional cattle sub-sector, policy makers and stakeholders in the beef value chain must develop fit-for-purpose policies and interventions that consider these variations

Age-dependent effects of protein restriction on dopamine release

FUNDING AND DISCLOSURE This work was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council [grant # BB/M007391/1 to J.E.M.], the European Commission [grant # GA 631404 to J.E.M.], The Leverhulme Trust [grant # RPG-2017-417 to J.E.M.] and the Tromsø Research Foundation [grant # 19-SG-JMcC to J. E. M.). The authors declare no conflict of interest. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the help and support from the staff of the Division of Biomedical Services, Preclinical Research Facility, University of Leicester, for technical support and the care of experimental animals.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A global research priority agenda to advance public health responses to fatty liver disease

Background & aims An estimated 38% of adults worldwide have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). From individual impacts to widespread public health and economic consequences, the implications of this disease are profound. This study aimed to develop an aligned, prioritised fatty liver disease research agenda for the global health community. Methods Nine co-chairs drafted initial research priorities, subsequently reviewed by 40 core authors and debated during a three-day in-person meeting. Following a Delphi methodology, over two rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the priorities, via Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a four-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. The core group revised the draft priorities between rounds. In R2, panellists also ranked the priorities within six domains: epidemiology, models of care, treatment and care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy. Results The consensus-built fatty liver disease research agenda encompasses 28 priorities. The mean percentage of ‘agree’ responses increased from 78.3 in R1 to 81.1 in R2. Five priorities received unanimous combined agreement (‘agree’ + ‘somewhat agree’); the remaining 23 priorities had >90% combined agreement. While all but one of the priorities exhibited at least a super-majority of agreement (>66.7% ‘agree’), 13 priorities had 90% combined agreement. Conclusions Adopting this multidisciplinary consensus-built research priorities agenda can deliver a step-change in addressing fatty liver disease, mitigating against its individual and societal harms and proactively altering its natural history through prevention, identification, treatment, and care. This agenda should catalyse the global health community’s efforts to advance and accelerate responses to this widespread and fast-growing public health threat. Impact and implications An estimated 38% of adults and 13% of children and adolescents worldwide have fatty liver disease, making it the most prevalent liver disease in history. Despite substantial scientific progress in the past three decades, the burden continues to grow, with an urgent need to advance understanding of how to prevent, manage, and treat the disease. Through a global consensus process, a multidisciplinary group agreed on 28 research priorities covering a broad range of themes, from disease burden, treatment, and health system responses to awareness and policy. The findings have relevance for clinical and non-clinical researchers as well as funders working on fatty liver disease and non-communicable diseases more broadly, setting out a prioritised, ranked research agenda for turning the tide on this fast-growing public health threat

Microbial contamination and hygiene of fresh cow’s milk produced by smallholders in western Zambia

A field study was performed to assess safety of smallholder fresh cow’s milk around Mongu, Western Province, Zambia. This involved observation and sampling of milk along the value chain from milking to point-of-sale and storage. Samples were collected from 86 cows, from 9 farmers, selling through two dairy cooperatives, with additional samples from informal markets. Production was very low; around one litre/day/cow and 10 L/day/herd. The milk was typically transported by bicycle in high ambient temperatures without refrigeration until reaching the point-of-sale (journey times of 30–120 min), where it was sold without pasteurisation despite milk-borne zoonoses being endemic (bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and Brucellosis). Although microbiological contamination was initially low, with geometric mean total bacterial count (TBC) of 425 cfu/mL (cfu = colony forming units) upon arrival at point-of-sale, poor hygiene led to high bacterial loads later on (geometric mean TBC > 600,000 cfu/mL after two days refrigeration), with almost all samples culture positive for Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli. After milking, milk was kept for 100–223 min at temperatures favouring microbial growth (median 34 °C) and sold without a microbial kill step. In this situation limited variation in observed standards of milk hygiene had no significant effect on milk end-product bacterial counts. Options for refrigerated transport are limited. Pasteurisation at the cooperative should be investigated, as this would largely remove pathogenic microbes present in the milk whether resulting from cattle infection or poor hygiene during milking and transportation. As milk is also purchased directly from producers, on-farm milk heating options should also be assessed. Smallholders may benefit from access to national markets by providing milk to large dairies, which have systems for ensuring safety. However, this requires significant investment and an increased and more consistent supply of milk; and many consumers, unable to afford milk sold through formal sectors, would not benefit