Leopard Panthera pardus density and survival in an ecosystem with depressed abundance of prey and dominant competitors

The leopard Panthera pardus is in range-wide decline, and many populations are highly threatened. Prey depletion is a major cause of global carnivore declines, but the response of leopard survival and density to this threat is unclear: by reducing the density of a dominant competitor (the lion Panthera leo) prey depletion could create both costs and benefits for subordinate competitors. We used capture-recapture models fitted to data from a 7-year camera-trap study in Kafue National Park, Zambia, to obtain baseline estimates of leopard population density and sex-specific apparent survival rates. Kafue is affected by prey depletion, and densities of large herbivores preferred by lions have declined more than the densities of smaller herbivores preferred by leopards. Lion density is consequently low. Estimates of leopard density were comparable to ecosystems with more intensive protection and favourable prey densities. However, our study site is located in an area with good ecological conditions and high levels of protection relative to other portions of the ecosystem, so extrapolating our estimates across the Park or into adjacent Game Management Areas would not be valid. Our results show that leopard density and survival within north-central Kafue remain good despite prey depletion, perhaps because (1) prey depletion has had weaker effects on preferred leopard prey compared to larger prey preferred by lions, and (2) the density of dominant competitors is consequently low. Our results show that the effects of prey depletion can be more complex than uniform decline of all large carnivore species, and warrant further investigation

Predation strongly limits demography of a keystone migratory herbivore in a recovering transfrontier ecosystem

Large herbivore migrations are imperiled globally; however the factors limiting a population across its migratory range are typically poorly understood. Zambia's Greater Liuwa Ecosystem (GLE) contains one of the largest remaining blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus taurinus) migrations, yet the population structure, vital rates, and limiting factors are virtually unknown. We conducted a long-term demographic study of GLE wildebeest from 2012 to 2019 of 107 collared adult females and their calves, 7352 herd observations, 12 aerial population surveys, and concurrent carnivore studies. We applied methods of vital rate estimation and survival analysis within a Bayesian estimation framework. From herd composition observations, we estimated rates of fecundity, first-year survival, and recruitment as 68%, 56%, and 38% respectively, with pronounced interannual variation. Similar rates were estimated from calf-detections with collared cows. Adult survival rates declined steadily from 91% at age 2 years to 61% at age 10 years thereafter dropping more sharply to 2% at age 16 years. Predation, particularly by spotted hyena, was the predominant cause of death for all wildebeest ages and focused on older animals. Starvation only accounted for 0.8% of all unbiased known natural causes of death. Mortality risk differed substantially between wet and dry season ranges, reflecting strong spatio-temporal differences in habitat and predator densities. There was substantial evidence that mortality risk to adults was 27% higher in the wet season, and strong evidence that it was 45% higher in the migratory range where predator density was highest. The estimated vital rates were internally consistent, predicting a stable population trajectory consistent with aerial estimates. From essentially zero knowledge of GLE wildebeest dynamics, this work provides vital rates, age structure, limiting factors, and a plausible mechanism for the migratory tendency, and a robust model-based foundation to evaluate the effects of potential restrictions in migratory range, climate change, predator-prey dynamics, and poaching

Predation Strongly Limits Demography of a Keystone Migratory Herbivore in a Recovering Transfrontier Ecosystem

Large herbivore migrations are imperiled globally; however the factors limiting a population across its migratory range are typically poorly understood. Zambia\u27s Greater Liuwa Ecosystem (GLE) contains one of the largest remaining blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus taurinus) migrations, yet the population structure, vital rates, and limiting factors are virtually unknown. We conducted a long-term demographic study of GLE wildebeest from 2012 to 2019 of 107 collared adult females and their calves, 7352 herd observations, 12 aerial population surveys, and concurrent carnivore studies. We applied methods of vital rate estimation and survival analysis within a Bayesian estimation framework. From herd composition observations, we estimated rates of fecundity, first-year survival, and recruitment as 68%, 56%, and 38% respectively, with pronounced interannual variation. Similar rates were estimated from calf-detections with collared cows. Adult survival rates declined steadily from 91% at age 2 years to 61% at age 10 years thereafter dropping more sharply to 2% at age 16 years. Predation, particularly by spotted hyena, was the predominant cause of death for all wildebeest ages and focused on older animals. Starvation only accounted for 0.8% of all unbiased known natural causes of death. Mortality risk differed substantially between wet and dry season ranges, reflecting strong spatio-temporal differences in habitat and predator densities. There was substantial evidence that mortality risk to adults was 27% higher in the wet season, and strong evidence that it was 45% higher in the migratory range where predator density was highest. The estimated vital rates were internally consistent, predicting a stable population trajectory consistent with aerial estimates. From essentially zero knowledge of GLE wildebeest dynamics, this work provides vital rates, age structure, limiting factors, and a plausible mechanism for the migratory tendency, and a robust model-based foundation to evaluate the effects of potential restrictions in migratory range, climate change, predator–prey dynamics, and poaching

Guidelines for evaluating the conservation value of African lion (Panthera leo) translocations

As the top predator in African ecosystems, lions have lost more than 90% of their historical range, and few countries possess strong evidence for stable populations. Translocations (broadly defined here as the capture and movement of lions for various management purposes) have become an increasingly popular action for this species, but the wide array of lion translocation rationales and subsequent conservation challenges stemming from poorly conceived or unsuitable translocations warrants additional standardized evaluation and guidance. At their best, translocations fill a key role in comprehensive strategies aimed at addressing the threats facing lions and fostering the recovery of wild populations in their historic range. At their worst, translocations can distract from addressing the major threats to wild populations and habitats, divert scarce funding from more valuable conservation actions, exacerbate conflict with humans in recipient sites, disrupt local lion demography, and undermine the genetic integrity of wild lion populations in both source and recipient sites. In the interest of developing best practice guidelines for deciding when and how to conduct lion translocations, we discuss factors to consider when determining whether a translocation is of conservation value, introduce a value assessment for translocations, and provide a decision matrix to assist practitioners in improving the positive and reducing the negative outcomes of lion translocation.Grant from the European Union through IUCN Save Our Species, and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service.https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/conservation-scienceam2023Zoology and Entomolog

Data from: Dietary niche separation of rodents and shrews in an African savanna

While niche separation and relationships with environmental conditions of large mammals of the African savanna have been studied intensively, less conspicuous components have not received similar attention. This is the case of Kafue National Park (KNP), Zambia, where mechanisms supporting coexistence among rodent and shrew species remain unclear, much less the influence of fire on their dietary resource use. Here, we use stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes to assess dietary resource use and partitioning among rodents and shrews found in three vegetation formations of KNP. According to the nitrogen isotope signatures, rodents are one to two trophic levels above primary production, save for Mus triton that is above by two to three. Shrews are two trophic levels above primary production. Among shrews, factors allowing coexistence of similar sized species could not be resolved. Rodent species of the same assemblage either differ in body mass by a factor of two (following Hutchinson's rule) or similar sized species occupy different trophic levels or dietary guilds based on their isotopic nitrogen or carbon signatures. At sites with frequent fires, rodents have broader dietary niches than at sites with low fire frequencies. This could either indicate relaxed competition under high fire frequencies as rodent populations do not reach the carrying capacity of the habitat, or it could reflect reduced competition due to lower species numbers under high versus low fire recurrence regimes. The results indicate competition as an important component structuring rodent communities in Zambian savannas, thus suggesting limited resources

Hidden Markov Models reveal a clear human footprint on the movements of highly mobile African wild dogs

Large carnivores have experienced considerable range contraction, increasing the importance of movement across human-altered landscapes between small, isolated populations. African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) are exceptionally wide-ranging, and recolonization is an important element of their persistence at broad scales. The competition-movement-connection hypothesis suggests that adaptations to move through areas that are unfavorable due to dominant competitors might promote the ability of subordinate competitors (like wild dogs) to move through areas that are unfavorable due to humans. Here, we used hidden Markov models to test how wild dog movements were affected by the Human Footprint Index in areas inside and outside of South Luangwa National Park. Movements were faster and more directed when outside the National Park, but slowed where the human footprint was stronger. Our results can be directly and quantitatively applied to connectivity planning, and we use them to identify ways to better understand differences between species in recent loss of connectivity

Data for Namukonde et al. 2018 Biotropica

Data for Namukonde et al. 2018 Biotropic

Carnivores, competition and genetic connectivity in the Anthropocene

Current extinction rates are comparable to five prior mass extinctions in the earth's history, and are strongly affected by human activities that have modified more than half of the earth's terrestrial surface. Increasing human activity restricts animal movements and isolates formerly connected populations, a particular concern for the conservation of large carnivores, but no prior research has used high throughput sequencing in a standardized manner to examine genetic connectivity for multiple species of large carnivores and multiple ecosystems. Here, we used RAD SNP genotypes to test for differences in connectivity between multiple ecosystems for African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and lions (Panthera leo), and to test correlations between genetic distance, geographic distance and landscape resistance due to human activity. We found weaker connectivity, a stronger correlation between genetic distance and geographic distance, and a stronger correlation between genetic distance and landscape resistance for lions than for wild dogs, and propose a new hypothesis that adaptations to interspecific competition may help to explain differences in vulnerability to isolation by humans

Testing the effects of anthropogenic pressures on a diverse African herbivore community

Large herbivore communities around the world have declined steeply in recent decades. Although excessive bushmeat harvesting is thought to be the primary cause of herbivore declines in many ecosystems, the direct effects of anthropogenic pressures on large herbivore populations remain poorly described in most of the systems experiencing decline. To test the extent to which large herbivores are impacted by ecological and anthropogenic factors in a protected area (PA) thought to be experiencing human-caused decline, we fit distance sampling models to seven years of data from systematic ground-based surveys in Kafue National Park (KNP) to estimate the population densities and distributions of 10 species of large herbivores, and to test what factors affect these parameters. Population densities of the ten most abundant large herbivores in KNP were substantially lower than those reported for an ecologically similar PA with less poaching pressure. Low densities were consistent across species and areas, though there was ecologically important variation among species and size classes. Densities of larger-bodied herbivores were greatly depressed relative to smaller species. This pattern has direct and indirect effects on large carnivore populations, with broad implications for the ecotourism and trophy hunting industries. Statistically and methodologically rigorous methods to test the effects of anthropogenic and environmental variables on density and distribution exist, but are rarely applied to large herbivores. To quantify trends in herbivore populations and evaluate the effectiveness of conservation actions, our results show that distance sampling with stratified ground-based monitoring is an efficient and effective method. In the Greater Kafue Ecosystem (GKE), continued increases in resource protection are needed to facilitate the recovery of an economically and ecologically important large herbivore guild. More broadly, our results confirm that anthropogenic effects on large herbivore distribution and abundance can be strong over wide areas for all species (particularly the larger members of the guild), even in very large PAs

Serological Evidence of Filovirus Infection in Nonhuman Primates in Zambia

Ebolaviruses and marburgviruses are filoviruses that are known to cause severe hemorrhagic fever in humans and nonhuman primates (NHPs). While some bat species are suspected to be natural reservoirs of these filoviruses, wild NHPs often act as intermediate hosts for viral transmission to humans. Using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we screened two NHP species, wild baboons and vervet monkeys captured in Zambia, for their serum IgG antibodies specific to the envelope glycoproteins of filoviruses. From 243 samples tested, 39 NHPs (16%) were found to be seropositive either for ebolaviruses or marburgviruses with endpoint antibody titers ranging from 100 to 25,600. Interestingly, antibodies reactive to Reston virus, which is found only in Asia, were detected in both NHP species. There was a significant difference in the seropositivity for the marburgvirus antigen between the two NHP species, with baboons having a higher positive rate. These results suggest that wild NHPs in Zambia might be nonlethally exposed to these filoviruses, and this emphasizes the need for continuous monitoring of filovirus infection in wild animals to better understand the ecology of filoviruses and to assess potential risks of outbreaks in humans in previously nonendemic countries