Extreme UK rainfall and natural climate variability: combining models and data

The return periods for extreme events are estimated from observational datasets. Often those datasets are relatively short in comparison to timescales of natural climate variability; potentially introducing a systematic bias into the extreme estimates. Here we combine observations with global climate models to show that this bias is statistically insignificant for the case of extreme UK-wide rainfall estimates. This is unlikely to hold for other locations and spatial scales, yet the methodology we have developed provides a simple approach to quantify the bias for other cases

Photochemical production and evolution of selected C2-C5 alkyl nitrates in tropospheric air influenced by Asian outflow

The photochemical production and evolution of six C2-C5 alkyl nitrates (ethyl-, 1-propyl-, 2-propyl-, 2-butyl-, 2-pentyl-, and 3-pentyl nitrate) was investigated using selected data from 5500 whole air samples collected downwind of Asia during the airborne Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) field campaign (February-April 2001). Air mass age was important for selecting appropriate field data to compare with laboratory predictions of C5 alkyl nitrate production rates. In young, highly polluted air masses, the ratio between the production rates of 3-pentyl nitrate and 2-pentyl nitrate from n-pentane was 0.60-0.65. These measured ratios show excellent agreement with results from a field study in Germany (0.63 ± 0.06), and they agree better with predicted ratios from older laboratory kinetic studies (0.63-0.66) than with newer laboratory results (0.73 ± 0.08). TRACE-P samples that did not show influence from marine alkyl nitrate sources were used to investigate photochemical alkyl nitrate evolution. Relative to 2-butyl nitrate/n-butane, the measured ratios of ethyl nitrate/ethane and 2-propyl nitrate/propane showed notable deviations from modeled values based on laboratory kinetic data, suggesting additional Asian sources of their alkyl peroxy radical precursors. By contrast, the measured ratios of 1-propyl-, 2-pentyl-, and 3-pentyl nitrate to their respective parent hydrocarbons were fairly close to modeled values. The 1-propyl nitrate findings contrast with field studies in North America, and suggest that air downwind of Asia was not significantly impacted by additional 1-propyl nitrate precursors. The sensitivity of modeled photochemical processing times to hydroxyl radical concentration, altitude, city ventilation times, and dilution is discussed

Reframing the human-wetlands relationship through a Universal Declaration of the Rights of Wetlands

The proposed Universal Declaration of the Rights of Wetlands is consistent with the principles of the rights of Nature, and reframes the human-wetlands paradigm away from one of degradation and loss to one of ecological sustainability that supports the Web of Life and continued delivery of Nature's contributions to people. Given the significance of the role of wetlands in reversing climate destabilisation and biodiversity degradation and loss, the paradigm shift engendered by a Declaration opens new possibilities to align wetlands, climate, and biodiversity policy, consistent with theIntergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021)proposals, to guide effective governmental and non-governmental mechanisms. Widening the acceptance of the concepts presented in the Declaration is part of a process to reframe human-wetlands relationships, and is ongoing and iterative

NMHCs and halocarbons in Asian continental outflow during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) Field Campaign: Comparison with PEM-West B

We present an overview of the spatial distributions of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and halocarbons observed over the western north Pacific as part of the NASA GTE Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE‐P) airborne field campaign (February–April 2001). The TRACE‐P data are compared with earlier measurements from the Pacific Rim during the Pacific Exploratory Mission‐West B (PEM‐West B), which took place in February–March 1994, and with emission inventory data for 2000. Despite the limited spatial and temporal data coverage inherent to airborne sampling, mean levels of the longer‐lived NMHCs (including ethane, ethyne, and benzene) were remarkably similar to our results during the PEM‐West B campaign. By comparison, mixing ratios of the fire extinguisher Halon‐1211 (CF2ClBr) increased by about 50% in the period between 1994 and 2001. Southern China (south of 35°N), and particularly the Shanghai region, appears to have been a substantial source of Halon‐1211 during TRACE‐P. Our previous analysis of the PEM‐West B data employed methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) as a useful industrial tracer. However, regulations have reduced its emissions to the extent that its mixing ratio during TRACE‐P was only one‐third of that measured in 1994. Methyl chloroform mixing ratio “hot spots,” indicating regions downwind of continuing emissions, included outflow from the vicinity of Shanghai, China, but particularly high emission ratios relative to CO were observed close to Japan and Korea. Tetrachloroethene (C2Cl4) levels have also decreased significantly, especially north of 25°N, but this gas still remains a useful indicator of northern industrial emissions. Methyl bromide (CH3Br) levels were systematically 1–2 pptv lower from 1994 to 2001, in accord with recent reports. However, air masses that had been advected over Japan and/or South Korean port cities typically exhibited elevated levels of CH3Br. As a consequence, emissions of CH3Br from Japan and Korea calculated employing CH3Br/CO ratios and scaled to CO emission inventory estimates, were almost as large as for all of south China (south of 35°N). Total east Asian emissions of CH3Br and CH3Cl were estimated to be roughly 4.7 Gg/yr and 167 Gg/yr, respectively, in 2001

A Modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for Assessment of Study Quality in Genetic Urological Research

Our modification of the traditional Newcastle-Ottawa scale enables urological researchers to effectively appraise and communicate the quality of genetic-based research in urology

Origin of chemically distinct discs in the Auriga cosmological simulations

The stellar disc of the Milky Way shows complex spatial and abundance structure that is central to understanding the key physical mechanisms responsible for shaping our Galaxy. In this study, we use six very high resolution cosmological zoom-in simulations of Milky Way-sized haloes to study the prevalence and formation of chemically distinct disc components. We find that our simulations develop a clearly bimodal distribution in the [α/Fe]–[Fe/H] plane. We find two main pathways to creating this dichotomy, which operate in different regions of the galaxies: (a) an early (z > 1) and intense high-[α/Fe] star formation phase in the inner region (R ≲ 5 kpc) induced by gas-rich mergers, followed by more quiescent low-[α/Fe] star formation; and (b) an early phase of high-[α/Fe] star formation in the outer disc followed by a shrinking of the gas disc owing to a temporarily lowered gas accretion rate, after which disc growth resumes. In process (b), a double-peaked star formation history around the time and radius of disc shrinking accentuates the dichotomy. If the early star formation phase is prolonged (rather than short and intense), chemical evolution proceeds as per process (a) in the inner region, but the dichotomy is less clear. In the outer region, the dichotomy is only evident if the first intense phase of star formation covers a large enough radial range before disc shrinking occurs; otherwise, the outer disc consists of only low-[α/Fe] sequence stars. We discuss the implication that both processes occurred in the Milky Way

Effect of Dietary Components on Larval Life History Characteristics in the Medfly (Ceratitis capitata: Diptera, Tephritidae)

Background: The ability to respond to heterogenous nutritional resources is an important factor in the adaptive radiation of insects such as the highly polyphagous Medfly. Here we examined the breadth of the Medfly’s capacity to respond to different developmental conditions, by experimentally altering diet components as a proxy for host quality and novelty. Methodology/Principal Findings: We tested responses of larval life history to diets containing protein and carbohydrate components found in and outside the natural host range of this species. A 40% reduction in the quantity of protein caused a significant increase in egg to adult mortality by 26.5%±6% in comparison to the standard baseline diet. Proteins and carbohydrates had differential effects on larval versus pupal development and survival. Addition of a novel protein source, casein (i.e. milk protein), to the diet increased larval mortality by 19.4%±3% and also lengthened the duration of larval development by 1.93±0.5 days in comparison to the standard diet. Alteration of dietary carbohydrate, by replacing the baseline starch with simple sugars, increased mortality specifically within the pupal stage (by 28.2%±8% and 26.2%±9% for glucose and maltose diets, respectively). Development in the presence of the novel carbohydrate lactose (milk sugar) was successful, though on this diet there was a decrease of 29.8±1.6 µg in mean pupal weight in comparison to pupae reared on the baseline diet. Conclusions: The results confirm that laboratory reared Medfly retain the ability to survive development through a wide range of fluctuations in the nutritional environment. We highlight new facets of the responses of different stages of holometabolous life histories to key dietary components. The results are relevant to colonisation scenarios and key to the biology of this highly invasive species

Cluster randomised trials in the medical literature: two bibliometric surveys

Background: Several reviews of published cluster randomised trials have reported that about half did not take clustering into account in the analysis, which was thus incorrect and potentially misleading. In this paper I ask whether cluster randomised trials are increasing in both number and quality of reporting. Methods: Computer search for papers on cluster randomised trials since 1980, hand search of trial reports published in selected volumes of the British Medical Journal over 20 years. Results: There has been a large increase in the numbers of methodological papers and of trial reports using the term 'cluster random' in recent years, with about equal numbers of each type of paper. The British Medical Journal contained more such reports than any other journal. In this journal there was a corresponding increase over time in the number of trials where subjects were randomised in clusters. In 2003 all reports showed awareness of the need to allow for clustering in the analysis. In 1993 and before clustering was ignored in most such trials. Conclusion: Cluster trials are becoming more frequent and reporting is of higher quality. Perhaps statistician pressure works

Longitudinal Image Registration with Temporal-order and Subject-specificity Discrimination

Morphological analysis of longitudinal MR images plays a key role in monitoring disease progression for prostate cancer patients, who are placed under an active surveillance program. In this paper, we describe a learning-based image registration algorithm to quantify changes on regions of interest between a pair of images from the same patient, acquired at two different time points. Combining intensity-based similarity and gland segmentation as weak supervision, the population-data-trained registration networks significantly lowered the target registration errors (TREs) on holdout patient data, compared with those before registration and those from an iterative registration algorithm. Furthermore, this work provides a quantitative analysis on several longitudinal-data-sampling strategies and, in turn, we propose a novel regularisation method based on maximum mean discrepancy, between differently-sampled training image pairs. Based on 216 3D MR images from 86 patients, we report a mean TRE of 5.6 mm and show statistically significant differences between the different training data sampling strategies.Comment: Accepted at MICCAI 202