Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies

OBJECTIVES: Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. DESIGN: Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. PARTICIPANTS: People are not needed in this study. DATA SOURCES: The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. RESULTS: 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. CONCLUSIONS: The methodological fundamentals of formal 3–20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified

'Documents of truth'?: the 2009 Ryan Report and 2013 McAleese Report

Published in 2009, the Report of the Commission to Inquire into Child Abuse (Ryan Report) offered an extensive and detailed examination of twentieth-century institutional abuse, shedding light on the treatment of vulnerable and impoverished children in industrial schools, reformatories, and other predominantly church-operated institutions. Four years later, the Report of the Interdepartmental Committee to establish the facts of State involvement with the Magdalen Laundries (McAleese Report) examined Ireland’s church-run Magdalen laundries for unmarried mothers and other women who it was deemed had broken moral boundaries. The Ryan and McAleese Reports were contributory to and, indeed, symptomatic of a late-twentieth-century inquiry culture and sought to facilitate a process of recognition, reconciliation, and redress. This thesis presents a collective and comparative analysis of the Commission to Inquire into Child Abuse (CICA) and the McAleese Committee, evaluating their mandate and aims, composition and powers, as well as their outcomes. Based on a close-reading of the Ryan and McAleese Reports and an examination of the response of survivors, the Catholic Church, academics, and journalists, this study identifies inaccuracies, omissions, and potential bias in the reports and questions whether the CICA and McAleese Committee consulted all available evidence and presented their findings effectively. Through a comparison of the survivor-driven CICA and the more time and cost-efficient administrative inquiry into state involvement with the Magdalen laundries, it is possible to identify a hierarchy of victimhood, reflecting the difficulty the Magdalen laundry survivors faced in gaining legitimate victim status. Beyond the report’s limited and, indeed, questionable statistical analysis, the McAleese Committee’s greatest failing was its inability to prioritise the statements presented by women who lived and worked in the Magdalen laundries. Consequently, while the CICA’s findings have been widely accepted, the McAleese Report’s narrative minimises the extent to which women were exploited and abused in the Magdalen laundries. Questions therefore arise regarding the accuracy of the McAleese Report and how far its publication contributed to wider efforts to come to terms with and learn from Ireland’s institutional history

Mothers working to prevent early stillbirth study (MiNESS 20–28):a case–control study protocol

Introduction: In the UK, 1600 babies die every year before, during or immediately after birth at 20–28 weeks’ gestation. This bereavement has a similar impact on parental physical and psychological well-being to late stillbirth (>28 weeks’ gestation). Improved understanding of potentially modifiable risk factors for late stillbirth (including supine going-to-sleep position) has influenced international clinical practice. Information is now urgently required to similarly inform clinical practice and aid decision-making by expectant mothers/parents, addressing inequalities in pregnancy loss between 20 and 28 weeks. Methods and analysis: This study focuses on what portion of risk of pregnancy loss 20–28 weeks’ gestation is associated with exposures amenable to public health campaigns/antenatal care adaptation. A case–control study of non-anomalous singleton baby loss (via miscarriage, stillbirth or early neonatal death) 20+0 to 27+6 (n=316) and randomly selected control pregnancies (2:1 ratio; n=632) at group-matched gestations will be conducted. Data is collected via participant recall (researcher-administered questionnaire) and extraction from contemporaneous medical records. Unadjusted/confounder-adjusted ORs will be calculated. Exposures associated with early stillbirth at OR≥1.5 will be detectable (p0.80) assuming exposure prevalence of 30%–60%. Ethics and dissemination: NHS research ethical approval has been obtained from the London—Seasonal research ethics committee (23/LO/0622). The results will be presented at international conferences and published in peer-reviewed open-access journals. Information from this study will enable development of antenatal care and education for healthcare professionals and pregnant people to reduce risk of early stillbirth. Trial registration number: NCT06005272

Injury programs shape glioblastoma

Glioblastoma is the most common and aggressive primary brain cancer in adults and is almost universally fatal due to its stark therapeutic resistance. During the past decade, although survival has not substantially improved, major advances have been made in our understanding of the underlying biology. It has become clear that these devastating tumors recapitulate features of neurodevelopmental hierarchies which are influenced by the microenvironment. Emerging evidence also highlights a prominent role for injury responses in steering cellular phenotypes and contributing to tumor heterogeneity. This review highlights how the interplay between injury and neurodevelopmental programs impacts on tumor growth, invasion, and treatment resistance, and discusses potential therapeutic considerations in view of these findings

Advance Statements for Black African and Caribbean people (AdStAC):protocol for an implementation study

Background Advance Choice Documents (ACDs) have been recommended for inclusion in new mental health legislation for England and Wales. This is based on evidence-based interventions to reduce compulsory psychiatric admission, with particular benefit for Black people, whose rates of compulsory psychiatric admission in the UK are over three times higher than those of White British people. Our aim was to explore potential barriers and enablers to effective implementation of ACDs for use by Black people with previous experience of compulsory admission. Methods Seven online and in-person workshops were held with: Black service users who had previously been compulsorily admitted, carers/supporters of Black service users, and mental health professionals. Workshops were recorded and transcribed. Results Inductive analysis was employed to identify recommendations and determine where there was a lack of consensus. Thematic analysis identified key themes of ‘people’, ‘process’ and ‘power’ pertaining to ACD implementation. Discussion Our results reinforce the need for independent facilitation for ACD creation and their potential to empower Black service users in relation to their care. They suggest that explicit acknowledgement of, and time spent listening to, the historical and individual poor experiences that underlie the treatment preferences Black people express are important aspects of ACD creation

Student nurses' life story work on inpatient wards

Life story work can be a valuable resource on dementia inpatient wards as student mental health nurses who participants in this research project discovere

Building an Ecosystem of Support: An Evaluation of North Dakota’s Community School Programs

Community school programs respond to students’ nonacademic needs so that they can focus on their learning. This session highlights a collaboration of organizations across North Dakota as they implement two community school programs. A shared evaluation plan supports the implementation of the two programs and will provide data to improve services provided to students

Investigation into the effect of skin tone modulators and exogenous stress on skin pigmentation utilizing a novel bioengineered skin equivalent

Human skin equivalents (HSEs) are a popular technology due to limitations in animal testing, particularly as they recapitulate aspects of structure and function of human skin. Many HSEs contain two basic cell types to model dermal and epidermal compartments, however this limits their application, particularly when investigating the effect of exogenous stressors on skin health. We describe the development of a novel platform technology that accurately replicates skin pigmentation in vitro. Through incorporation of melanocytes, specialized pigment producing cells, into the basal layer of the epidermis we are able to re-create skin pigmentation in vitro. We observe apical distribution of melanin within keratinocytes and formation of supranuclear caps (SPNCs), only when the epidermal compartment is co-cultured with a dermal compartment, leading to the conclusion that fibroblast support is essential for correct pigment organization. We also evaluate the commonly observed phenomenon that pigmentation darkens with time in vitro, which we further explore through mechanical exfoliation to remove a build-up of melanin deposits in the stratum corneum. Finally, we demonstrate the application of a pigmented HSE to investigate drug modulation of skin tone and protection from UV-induced damage, highlighting the importance of such a model in the wider context of skin biology

Simulation of Polymer Flow Using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics Method

Reactive rotational molding (RRM) is a process to manufacture hollow plastic articles. Comparing to rotational molding of thermoplastics, it decreases the process cycle time due to the reactivity of the system. However, the number of influent parameters is relatively high and optimization of the process is complex. During RRM, the viscosity is one of the key parameters and varies according to the polymer molecular weight due to chemical reactions. Simulation is a way to optimize this process. Prediction of the reactive flow is of great interest to optimize process conditions and wall thickness distribution of the molded part. We developed a solver based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics method. This Lagrangian meshfree method is well adapted to simulate free surface flows like those occurring in RRM. First, we validated the code comparing the simulation results to analytical Couette flow solution and experimental measurements of dam break problem. Then, we performed two-dimensional (2D) and 3D simulations to observe the influence of the change of viscosity on the flow, due to the chemical reactions. Adhesion of the polymer on the mold surface is modeled by new boundary conditions.Contract grant sponsor : RAIGI society for providing us the reactive materials and the Single Interministerial Fund (FUI)-SAGANE