Stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian financial crisis.

Using a basic monetary model, we assess the effectiveness of stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian currency crisis in 1997 and 1998. Stock prices are incorporated into a monetary model, through the wealth effect postulated by Friedman [J. Pol. Econ. 96 (1988) 221]. In addition to the domestic stock price, we also incorporate the stock prices of Hong Kong, China and Japan. Using monthly data, the results indicate that the domestic stock price, the Hong Kong stock price and particularly US prices are significant leading indicators of the crisis. Causality tests suggest evidence of bi-causality between the stock markets and foreign exchange markets

The lifetime of a unilateral target zone: some extended results

In Dumas and Svensson (Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 467) the lifetime of a Krugman (Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (1991) 669–682) type target zone model is found to be extremely long. This paper shows that the lifetime of the identical target zone regime can be much lower when real disturbances occur. In particular, the mean lifetime is found to be very low when real disturbances occur and the real exchange rate elasticity of the demand for domestic goods is very low. It is also shown that allowing for monetary disturbances to have real effects has very little effect on the lifetime. The results indicate the conditions under which real disturbances might trigger currency crises

Stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian financial crisis.

Using a basic monetary model, we assess the effectiveness of stock prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian currency crisis in 1997 and 1998. Stock prices are incorporated into a monetary model, through the wealth effect postulated by Friedman [J. Pol. Econ. 96 (1988) 221]. In addition to the domestic stock price, we also incorporate the stock prices of Hong Kong, China and Japan. Using monthly data, the results indicate that the domestic stock price, the Hong Kong stock price and particularly US prices are significant leading indicators of the crisis. Causality tests suggest evidence of bi-causality between the stock markets and foreign exchange markets

Long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and interest rates in the G-7

There has been a substantial amount of research on the interrelationships between the main stock markets and onthe interdependence of the main bond markets around the world. However, there have been very few papers that have investigated the relationship between an individual country’s stock market and interest rate, then compared this interrelationship over a number of countries. As market across countries become more closely related due to technical progress and widespread financial deregulation, so different financial markets within countries should also become more closely integrated.The aim of this paper is to determine whether stock prices and interest rates share common trend or commoncycle. The cointegration technique isused to test for a long -run common trend, and codependence analysis is used to test for a short-run common cycle. Co-dependence hasbeen used by Vahid and Engle (1993)among others, to analyse common cycles between output and consumption. As both interest rates and stock prices are related to thebusiness cycle, it would theoretically beexpected that both should follow a cyclical pattern

Limited Reserves and the Optimal Width of an Exchange Rate Target zone.

This paper analyses the stabilising properties of an exchange rate target zone when the stock of available reserves is limited. In these circumstances it is reasonable to suppose that the optimal bandwidth is affected by the expected lifetime of the zone. Our analysis uses Sutherland's (1995) target zone model to assess the importance of the expected lifetime in determining the optimal width of the zone. We find that the expected lifetime tends to widen the optimal bandwidth considerably but unless the stock of initial reserves is small and/or the fundamentals drift large, the extra lifetime bought is small in percentage terms

Long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and interest rates in the G-7

There has been a substantial amount of research on the interrelationships between the main stock markets and onthe interdependence of the main bond markets around the world. However, there have been very few papers that have investigated the relationship between an individual country’s stock market and interest rate, then compared this interrelationship over a number of countries. As market across countries become more closely related due to technical progress and widespread financial deregulation, so different financial markets within countries should also become more closely integrated.The aim of this paper is to determine whether stock prices and interest rates share common trend or commoncycle. The cointegration technique isused to test for a long -run common trend, and codependence analysis is used to test for a short-run common cycle. Co-dependence hasbeen used by Vahid and Engle (1993)among others, to analyse common cycles between output and consumption. As both interest rates and stock prices are related to thebusiness cycle, it would theoretically beexpected that both should follow a cyclical pattern

Non-HDL or LDL cholesterol in heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: findings of the Simon Broome Register

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The role of non-HDL-C in the identification and management of lipid disorders is not clearly defined, although UK guidelines recommend its wider use in assessing the need for lipid-lowering therapy and as a treatment target. RECENT FINDINGS: We examined the implications of the use of non-HDL-C as opposed to LDL-C in 253 people with hypercholesterolaemia before treatment and 573 after treatment in whom fasting total serum cholesterol, HDL-C and LDL-C had been recorded and the diagnosis of heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (heFH) was investigated by genetic testing. The difference and the limits of agreement between non-HDL-C and LDL-C calculated using the Friedewald formula were assessed in those with and without heFH-causing mutations. SUMMARY: There were 147 mutation-positive and 106 mutation-negative pretreatment participants and 395 mutation-positive and 178 mutation-negative patients receiving treatment. The difference between non-HDL-C and LDL-C pretreatment in mutation-positive people (mean LDL-C 7.73 mmol/l) was 0.67 mmol/l (95% CI 0.62-0.73) and posttreatment (mean LDL-C 4.71 mmol/l) was 0.62 mmol/l (95% CI 0.59-0.65) with wide limits of agreement of -0.02 to 1.37 and 0.07-1.18 mmol/l, respectively. Among patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia, use of estimated LDL-C derived from non-HDL-C in place of calculated LDL-C may result in diagnostic misclassification and difficulty in assessing the true reduction in LDL-C with treatment, because of the wide inter-individual limits of agreement around the mean difference between non-HDL-C and LDL-C

Improving identification & management of familial hypercholesterolaemia in primary care: pre- and post-intervention study

Background and Aims: Familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is a major cause of premature heart disease but remains unrecognised in most patients. This study investigated if a systematic primary care-based approach to identify and manage possible FH improves recommended best clinical practice. Methods: Pre- and post-intervention study in six UK general practices (population 45,033) which invited patients with total cholesterol >7.5 mmol/L to be assessed for possible FH. Compliance with national guideline recommendations to identify and manage possible FH (repeat cholesterol; assess family history of heart disease; identify secondary causes and clinical features; reduce total & LDL-cholesterol; statin prescribing; lifestyle advice) was assessed by calculating the absolute difference in measures of care pre- and six months post-intervention. Results: The intervention improved best clinical practice in 118 patients consenting to assessment (of 831 eligible patients): repeat cholesterol test (+75.4%, 95% CI 66.9-82.3); family history of heart disease assessed (+35.6%, 95% CI 27.0-44.2); diagnosis of secondary causes (+7.7%, 95% CI 4.1-13.9), examining clinical features (+6.0%, 95% CI 2.9-11.7). For 32 patients diagnosed with possible FH using Simon-Broome criteria, statin prescribing significantly improved (18.8%, 95% CI 8.9-35.3) with non-significant mean reductions in cholesterol post-intervention (total: -0.16 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.78-0.46; LDL: -0.12 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.81-0.57). Conclusions: Within six months, this simple primary care intervention improved both identification and management of patients with possible FH, in line with national evidence-based guidelines. Replicating and sustaining this approach across the country could lead to substantial improvement in health outcomes for these individuals with very high cardiovascular risk

Abnormal P300 in people with high risk of developing psychosis

Background Individuals with an “at-risk mental state” (or “prodromal” symptoms) have a 20–40% chance of developing psychosis; however it is difficult to predict which of them will become ill on the basis of their clinical symptoms alone. We examined whether neurophysiological markers could help to identify those who are particularly vulnerable. Method 35 cases meeting PACE criteria for the at-risk mental state (ARMS) and 57 controls performed an auditory oddball task whilst their electroencephalogram was recorded. The latency and amplitude of the P300 and N100 waves were compared between groups using linear regression. Results The P300 amplitude was significantly reduced in the ARMS group [8.6 ± 6.4 microvolt] compared to controls [12.7 ± 5.8 microvolt] (p < 0.01). There were no group differences in P300 latency or in the amplitude and latency of the N100. Of the at-risk subjects that were followed up, seven (21%) developed psychosis. Conclusion Reduction in the amplitude of the P300 is associated with an increased vulnerability to psychosis. Neurophysiological and other biological markers may be of use to predict clinical outcomes in populations at high risk

Use of targeted exome sequencing as a diagnostic tool for familial hypercholesterolaemia

Familial Hypercholesterolaemia (FH) is an autosomal dominant disease, caused by mutations in LDLR, APOB or PCSK9, which results in high levels of LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) leading to early coronary heart disease. An autosomal recessive form of FH is also known, due to homozygous mutations in LDLRAP1. This study assessed the utility of an exome capture method and deep sequencing in FH diagnosis