Moving towards a wave-resolved approach to forecasting mountain wave induced clear air turbulence

Mountain wave breaking in the lower stratosphere is one of the major causes of atmospheric turbulence encountered in commercial aviation, which in turn is the cause of most weather-related aircraft incidents. In the case of clear air turbulence (CAT), there are no visual clues and pilots are reliant on operational forecasts and reports from other aircraft. Traditionally mountain waves have been sub-grid-scale in global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, but recent developments in NWP mean that some forecast centres (e.g. the UK Met Office) are now producing operational global forecasts that resolve mountain wave activity explicitly, allowing predictions of mountain wave induced turbulence with greater accuracy and confidence than previously possible. Using a bespoke turbulent kinetic energy diagnostic, the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) is shown to produce useful forecasts of mountain CAT during three case studies over Greenland, and to outperform the current operational Met Office CAT prediction product (the World Area Forecast Centre (WAFC) London gridded CAT product) in doing so. In a long term, 17-month, verification, MetUM forecasts yield a turbulence prediction hit rate of 80% with an accompanying false alarm rate of under 40%. These skill scores are a considerable improvement on those reported for the mountain wave component of the WAFC product, although no direct comparison is available. The major implication of this work is that sophisticated global NWP models are now sufficiently advanced to provide skilful forecasts of mountain wave turbulence

Uncertainty in the Representation of Orography in Weather and Climate Models and Implications for Parameterized Drag

The representation of orographic drag remains a major source of uncertainty for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models. Its accuracy depends on contributions from both the model grid‐scale orography (GSO) and the subgrid‐scale orography (SSO). Different models use different source orography datasets and different methodologies to derive these orography fields. This study presents the first comparison of orography fields across several operational global NWP models. It also investigates the sensitivity of an orographic drag parameterisation to the inter‐model spread in SSO fields and the resulting implications for representing the northern hemisphere winter circulation in a NWP model. The inter‐model spread in both the GSO and the SSO fields is found to be considerable. This is due to differences in the underlying source dataset employed and in the manner in which this dataset is processed (in particular how it is smoothed and interpolated) to generate the model fields. The sensitivity of parameterised orographic drag to the inter‐model variability in SSO fields is shown to be considerable and dominated by the influence of two SSO fields: the standard deviation and the mean gradient of the SSO. NWP model sensitivity experiments demonstrate that the inter‐model spread in these fields is of first‐order importance to the inter‐model spread in parameterised surface stress, and to current known systematic model biases. The revealed importance of the SSO fields supports careful reconsideration of how these fields are generated, guiding future development of orographic drag parameterisations and re‐evaluation of the resolved impacts of orography on the flow

Sensitivity of the surface orographic gravity wave drag to vertical wind shear over Antarctica

The effects of vertical wind shear on orographic gravity wave drag derived previously from inviscid linear theory are evaluated using reanalysis data. Emphasis is placed on the relative importance of uniform and directional shear (associated with first and second vertical derivatives of the wind velocity), which are theoretically predicted, respectively, to reduce and enhance the surface drag. Two levels at which the wind derivatives are estimated are considered for evaluating the shear corrections to the drag: a height just above the parametrized boundary layer height in the ECMWF model (BLH), and a height of order the standard deviation of the subgrid-scale orography elevation (SDH), adopted by previous authors. A climatology of the Richardson number (Ri) computed for the decade 2006-2015 suggests that the Antarctic region has a high incidence of low Ri values, implying high shear conditions. Shear estimated at the BLH has a relatively modest impact on the drag, whereas shear estimated at the SDH has a stronger impact. Predicted drag enhancement is more widespread than drag reduction because terms involving second wind derivatives dominate the drag correction for a larger fraction of the time than terms involving first derivatives. A comparison of climatologies of the drag corrections for horizontally elliptical mountains (which represent anisotropic subgrid-scale orography in parametrizations) and axisymmetric mountains always results in drag enhancement over Antarctica, with a maximum during the JJA season, showing qualitative robustness to both calculation height and orography anisotropy. However, this enhancement is smaller when using elliptical instead of axisymmetric orography. This is because the shear vector is predominantly oriented along mountain ridges rather than across them when the orography is anisotropic

COnstraining ORographic Drag Effects (COORDE): A Model Comparison of Resolved and Parametrized Orographic Drag

The parametrization of orographic drag processes is a major source of circulation uncertainty in models. The COnstraining ORographic Drag Effects (COORDE) project makes a coordinated effort to narrow this uncertainty by bringing together the modeling community to: explore the variety of orographic drag parametrizations employed in current operational models; assess the resolution sensitivity of resolved and parametrized orographic drag across models; and to validate the parametrized orographic drag in low-resolution simulations using explicitly resolved orographic drag from high-resolution simulations. Eleven models from eight major modeling centers are used to estimate resolved orographic drag from high-resolution (km-scale) simulations and parametrized orographic drag from low-resolution simulations, typically used for seasonal forecasting (&sim;40&thinsp;km) and climate projections (&sim;100&thinsp;km). In most models, at both seasonal and climate resolutions, the total (resolved plus parametrized) orographic gravity wave drag over land is shown to be underestimated by a considerable amount (up to 50%) over the Northern and Southern Hemisphere and by more than 60% over the Middle East region, with respect to the resolved gravity wave drag estimated from km-scale simulations. The km-scale simulations also provide evidence that the parametrized surface stress and the parametrized low-level orographic drag throughout the troposphere are overestimated in most models over the Middle East region, particularly at climate resolutions. Through this process-based evaluation, COORDE provides model developers new valuable information on the current representation of orographic drag at seasonal and climate resolutions and the vertical partitioning of orographic low-level and gravity wave&nbsp;drag. </div

A pan-African convection-permitting regional climate simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa

A convection-permitting multi-year regional climate simulation using the Met Office Unified Model has been run for the first time on an Africa-wide domain. The model has been run as part of the Future Climate for Africa (FCFA) IMPALA (Improving Model Processes for African cLimAte) project and its configuration, domain and forcing data are described here in detail. The model (CP4-Africa) uses a 4.5km horizontal grid spacing at the equator and is run without a convection parametrization, nested within a global atmospheric model driven by observations at the sea-surface which does include a convection scheme. An additional regional simulation, with identical resolution and physical parametrizations to the global model, but with the domain, land surface and aerosol climatologies of the CP4-Africa model, has been run to aid understanding of the differences between the CP4-Africa and global model, in particular to isolate the impact of the convection parametrization and resolution. The effect of enforcing moisture conservation in the CP4-Africa model is described and its impact on reducing extreme precipitation values is assessed. Preliminary results from the first 5 years of the CP4-Africa simulation show substantial improvements in JJA average rainfall compared to the parameterized convection models, with most notably a reduction in the persistent dry bias in West Africa - giving an indication of the benefits to be gained from running a convection-permitting simulation over the whole African continent

What can we learn about orographic drag parametrisation from high‐resolution models? A case study over the Rocky Mountains

Comprehensive high-resolution numerical weather prediction models provide a virtual laboratory for modelling the atmospheric flow over complex mountain ranges. In this study, global and regional simulations with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2 to 32 km, focused over the northern Rocky Mountains, are used to assess the orographic blocking and gravity wave drag parametrisations employed in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The total, resolved and parametrised drag components in coarse-resolution simulations are compared with those in high-resolution simulations, in which the orographic drag processes are better resolved. The total surface stresses and gravity wave momentum fluxes in the free atmosphere of the global 16 km UM and IFS simulations are shown to compare well with 2 km regional simulations in terms of variability and mean. While the total gravity wave momentum flux is somewhat underestimated by both global models, its vertical distribution is well captured. The “seamlessness” of the parametrisation scheme is then assessed by comparing the total orographic stress – and its components – across several horizontal resolutions of the UM. The surface stress remains relatively constant across resolutions, such that the reduction in resolved orographic stress at coarser resolutions is compensated for by an almost equivalent increase in parametrised orographic stress. However, the parametrised orographic gravity wave momentum flux in the free atmosphere remains almost constant with resolution, failing to compensate for the lack of resolved flux at coarse resolutions. This leads to an underestimation of the total gravity wave drag at coarser resolutions. Further analysis suggests that this underestimation is due to the monochromatic wave assumption made by the gravity wave drag parametrisation scheme

What can we learn about orographic drag parametrisation from high-resolution models? A case study over the Rocky Mountains

Comprehensive high-resolution numerical weather prediction models provide a virtual laboratory for modelling the atmospheric flow over complex mountain ranges. In this study, global and regional simulations with horizontal grid spacing ranging from 2 to 32 km, focused over the northern Rocky Mountains, are used to assess the orographic blocking and gravity wave drag parametrisations employed in the Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The total, resolved and parametrised drag components in coarse-resolution simulations are compared with those in high-resolution simulations, in which the orographic drag processes are better resolved. The total surface stresses and gravity wave momentum fluxes in the free atmosphere of the global 16 km UM and IFS simulations are shown to compare well with 2 km regional simulations in terms of variability and mean. While the total gravity wave momentum flux is somewhat underestimated by both global models, its vertical distribution is well captured. The “seamlessness” of the parametrisation scheme is then assessed by comparing the total orographic stress – and its components – across several horizontal resolutions of the UM. The surface stress remains relatively constant across resolutions, such that the reduction in resolved orographic stress at coarser resolutions is compensated for by an almost equivalent increase in parametrised orographic stress. However, the parametrised orographic gravity wave momentum flux in the free atmosphere remains almost constant with resolution, failing to compensate for the lack of resolved flux at coarse resolutions. This leads to an underestimation of the total gravity wave drag at coarser resolutions. Further analysis suggests that this underestimation is due to the monochromatic wave assumption made by the gravity wave drag parametrisation scheme

Energy landscapes shape animal movement ecology

The metabolic costs of animal movement have been studied extensively under laboratory conditions, although frequently these are a poor approximation of the costs of operating in the natural, heterogeneous environment. Construction of “energy landscapes,” which relate animal locality to the cost of transport, can clarify whether, to what extent, and how movement properties are attributable to environmental heterogeneity. Although behavioral responses to aspects of the energy landscape are well documented in some fields (notably, the selection of tailwinds by aerial migrants) and scales (typically large), the principles of the energy landscape extend across habitat types and spatial scales. We provide a brief synthesis of the mechanisms by which environmentally driven changes in the cost of transport can modulate the behavioral ecology of animal movement in different media, develop example cost functions for movement in heterogeneous environments, present methods for visualizing these energy landscapes, and derive specific predictions of expected outcomes from individual- to population- and species-level processes. Animals modulate a suite of movement parameters (e.g., route, speed, timing of movement, and tortuosity) in relation to the energy landscape, with the nature of their response being related to the energy savings available. Overall, variation in movement costs influences the quality of habitat patches and causes nonrandom movement of individuals between them. This can provide spatial and/or temporal structure to a range of population- and species-level processes, ultimately including gene flow. Advances in animal-attached technology and geographic information systems are opening up new avenues for measuring and mapping energy landscapes that are likely to provide new insight into their influence in animal ecology.Fil: Shepard, Emily L. C.. Swansea University; Reino UnidoFil: Wilson, Rory P.. Swansea University; Reino UnidoFil: Rees, W. Gareth. University of Cambridge; Reino UnidoFil: Grundy, Edward. Swansea University; Reino UnidoFil: Lambertucci, Sergio Agustin. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigación en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; ArgentinaFil: Vosper, Simon B.. Met Office; Reino Unid

Mountain Wave Induced Polar Stratospheric Cloud Forecasts for Aircraft Science Flights during SOLVE/THESEO 2000

The results of a multimodel forecasting effort to predict mountain wave–induced polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) for airborne science during the third Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE III) Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE)/Third European Stratospheric Experiment on Ozone (THESEO 2000) Arctic ozone campaign are assessed. The focus is on forecasts for five flights of NASA’s instrumented DC-8 research aircraft in which PSCs observed by onboard aerosol lidars were identified as wave related. Aircraft PSC measurements over northern Scandinavia on 25–27 January 2000 were accurately forecast by the mountain wave models several days in advance, permitting coordinated quasi- Lagrangian flights that measured their composition and structure in unprecedented detail. On 23 January 2000 mountain wave ice PSCs were forecast over eastern Greenland. Thick layers of wave-induced ice PSC were measured by DC-8 aerosol lidars in regions along the flight track where the forecasts predicted enhanced stratospheric mountain wave amplitudes. The data from these flights, which were planned using this forecast guidance, have substantially improved the overall understanding of PSC microphysics within mountain waves. Observations of PSCs south of the DC-8 flight track on 30 November 1999 are consistent with forecasts of mountain wave–induced ice clouds over southern Scandinavia, and are validated locally using radiosonde data. On the remaining two flights wavelike PSCs were reported in regions where no mountain wave PSCs were forecast. For 10 December 1999, it is shown that locally generated mountain waves could not have propagated into the stratosphere where the PSCs were observed, confirming conclusions of other recent studies. For the PSC observed on 14 January 2000 over northern Greenland, recent work indicates that nonorographic gravity waves radiated from the jet stream produced this PSC, confirming the original forecast of no mountain wave influence. This forecast is validated further by comparing with a nearby ER-2 flight segment to the south of the DC-8, which intercepted and measured local stratospheric mountain waves with properties similar to those predicted. In total, the original forecast guidance proves to be consistent with PSC data acquired from all five of these DC-8 flights. The work discussed herein highlights areas where improvements can be made in future wave PSC forecasting campaigns, such as use of anelastic rather than Boussinesq linearized gridpoint models and a need to forecast stratospheric gravity waves from sources other than mountains