Simple study designs in ecology produce inaccurate estimates of biodiversity responses

Monitoring the impacts of anthropogenic threats and interventions to mitigate these threats is key to understanding how to best conserve biodiversity. Ecologists use many different study designs to monitor such impacts. Simpler designs lacking controls (e.g. Before-After (BA) and After) or pre-impact data (e.g. Control-Impact (CI)) are considered to be less robust than more complex designs (e.g. Before-After Control-Impact (BACI) or Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs)). However, we lack quantitative estimates of how much less accurate simpler study designs are in ecology. Understanding this could help prioritise research and weight studies by their design’s accuracy in meta-analysis and evidence assessment. 2. We compared how accurately five study designs estimated the true effect of a simulated environmental impact that caused a step-change response in a population’s density. We derived empirical estimates of several simulation parameters from 47 ecological datasets to ensure our simulations were realistic. We measured design performance by determining the percentage of simulations where: (i) the true effect fell within the 95% Confidence Intervals of effect size estimates, and (ii) each design correctly estimated the true effect’s direction and magnitude. We also considered how sample size affected their performance. 3. We demonstrated that BACI designs performed: 1.3-1.8 times better than RCTs; 2.9-4.2 times vs BA; 3.2-4.6 times vs CI; and 7.1-10.1 times vs After designs (depending on sample size), when correctly estimating true effect’s direction and magnitude to within ±30%. Although BACI designs suffered from low power at small sample sizes, they outperformed other designs for almost all performance measures. Increasing sample size improved BACI design accuracy but only increased the precision of simpler designs around biased estimates. 4. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that more investment in more robust designs is needed in ecology since inferences from simpler designs, even with large sample sizes may be misleading. Facilitating this requires longer-term funding and stronger research-practice partnerships. We also propose ‘accuracy weights’ and demonstrate how they can weight studies in three recent meta-analyses by accounting for study design and sample size. We hope these help decision-makers and meta-analysts better account for study design when assessing evidence

Cluster randomized test-negative design (CR-TND) trials: a novel and efficient method to assess the efficacy of community level dengue interventions

Cluster randomized trials are the gold standard for assessing efficacy of community-level interventions, such as vector control strategies against dengue. We describe a novel cluster randomized trial methodology with a test-negative design, which offers advantages over traditional approaches. It utilizes outcome-based sampling of patients presenting with a syndrome consistent with the disease of interest, who are subsequently classified as test-positive cases or test-negative controls on the basis of diagnostic testing. We use simulations of a cluster trial to demonstrate validity of efficacy estimates under the test-negative approach. This demonstrates that, provided study arms are balanced for both test-negative and test-positive illness at baseline and that other test-negative design assumptions are met, the efficacy estimates closely match true efficacy. We also briefly discuss analytical considerations for an odds ratio-based effect estimate arising from clustered data, and outline potential approaches to analysis. We conclude that application of the test-negative design to certain cluster randomized trials could increase their efficiency and ease of implementation

Poor availability of context-specific evidence hampers decision-making in conservation

Evidence-based conservation relies on reliable and relevant evidence. Practitioners often prefer locally relevant studies whose results are more likely to be transferable to the context of planned conservation interventions. To quantify the availability of relevant evidence for amphibian and bird conservation we reviewed Conservation Evidence, a database of quantitative tests of conservation interventions. Studies were geographically clustered, and few locally conducted studies were found in Western sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, South East Asia, and Eastern South America. Globally there were extremely low densities of studies per intervention - fewer than one study within 2000 km of a given location. The availability of relevant evidence was extremely low when we restricted studies to those studying biomes or taxonomic orders containing high percentages of threatened species, compared to the most frequently studied biomes and taxonomic orders. Further constraining the evidence by study design showed that only 17–20% of amphibian and bird studies used reliable designs. Our results highlight the paucity of evidence on the effectiveness of conservation interventions, and the disparity in evidence for local contexts that are frequently studied and those where conservation needs are greatest. Addressing the serious global shortfall in context-specific evidence requires a step change in the frequency of testing conservation interventions, greater use of reliable study designs and standardized metrics, and methodological advances to analyze patchy evidence bases

Effect of formant frequency spacing on perceived gender in pre-pubertal children's voices

<div><p>Background</p><p>It is usually possible to identify the sex of a pre-pubertal child from their voice, despite the absence of sex differences in fundamental frequency at these ages. While it has been suggested that the overall spacing between formants (formant frequency spacing - ΔF) is a key component of the expression and perception of sex in children's voices, the effect of its continuous variation on sex and gender attribution has not yet been investigated.</p><p>Methodology/Principal findings</p><p>In the present study we manipulated voice ΔF of eight year olds (two boys and two girls) along continua covering the observed variation of this parameter in pre-pubertal voices, and assessed the effect of this variation on adult ratings of speakers' sex and gender in two separate experiments. In the first experiment (sex identification) adults were asked to categorise the voice as either male or female. The resulting identification function exhibited a gradual slope from male to female voice categories. In the second experiment (gender rating), adults rated the voices on a continuum from “masculine boy” to “feminine girl”, gradually decreasing their masculinity ratings as ΔF increased.</p><p>Conclusions/Significance</p><p>These results indicate that the role of ΔF in voice gender perception, which has been reported in adult voices, extends to pre-pubertal children's voices: variation in ΔF not only affects the perceived sex, but also the perceived masculinity or femininity of the speaker. We discuss the implications of these observations for the expression and perception of gender in children's voices given the absence of anatomical dimorphism in overall vocal tract length before puberty.</p></div

A patient with glycogen storage disease type Ib presenting with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) bearing monosomy 7 and translocation t(3;8)(q26;q24) after 14 years of treatment with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF): A case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Glycogen storage disease type Ib is an autosomal recessive transmitted disorder of glycogen metabolism caused by mutations in the glucose-6-phosphate translocase gene on chromosome 11q23 and leads to disturbed glycogenolysis as well as gluconeogenesis. Besides hepatomegaly, growth retardation, hypoglycemia, hyperlactatemia, hyperuricemia and hyperlipidemia, patients suffer from neutropenia associated with functional defects predisposing for severe infections. In order to attenuate these complications, long-term treatment with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor is common but this is associated with an increased risk for acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndromes in patients with inherited bone marrow failures such as severe congenital neutropenia. Onset of these myeloid malignancies is linked to cytogenetic aberrations involving chromosome 7. In addition, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor is known to stimulate proliferation of monosomy 7 cells <it>in vitro</it>. To our knowledge, we report for the first time a case report of a patient with glycogen storage disease type Ib, who developed acute myeloid leukemia with a classical monosomy 7 and acute myeloid leukemia-associated translocation t(3;8)(q26;q24) after 14 years of continuous treatment with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 28-year-old Turkish man with glycogen storage disease type Ib was admitted to our department because of dyspnea and increasing fatigue. He also presented with gum bleeding, bone pain in his legs, night sweats, recurrent episodes of fever with temperatures up to 39°C and hepatosplenomegaly.</p> <p>A blood count taken on the day of admission showed pancytopenia and a differential count displayed 30% blasts. A bone marrow biopsy was taken which showed a hypercellular marrow with dysplastic features of all three cell lines, while blast count was 20%. Classical cytogenetic analyses as well as fluorescence in situ hybridization showed a monosomy 7 with a translocation t(3;8)(q26;q24). Based on these findings, the diagnosis of acute myeloid leukemia was made.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our observations suggest that bone marrow examinations including cytogenetic analysis should be carried out on a regular basis in patients with glycogen storage disease type Ib who are on long-term treatment with granulocyte colony-stimulating factor for severe neutropenia, since this treatment might also contribute to an increased risk for acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndromes.</p

Serotonin tranporter methylation and response to cognitive behaviour therapy in children with anxiety disorders

Anxiety disorders that are the most commonly occurring psychiatric disorders in childhood, are associated with a range of social and educational impairments and often continue into adulthood. Cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment option for the majority of cases, although up to 35-45% of children do not achieve remission. Recent research suggests that some genetic variants may be associated with a more beneficial response to psychological therapy. Epigenetic mechanisms such as DNA methylation work at the interface between genetic and environmental influences. Furthermore, epigenetic alterations at the serotonin transporter (SERT) promoter region have been associated with environmental influences such as stressful life experiences. In this study, we measured DNA methylation upstream of SERT in 116 children with an anxiety disorder, before and after receiving CBT. Change during treatment in percentage DNA methylation was significantly different in treatment responders vs nonresponders. This effect was driven by one CpG site in particular, at which responders increased in methylation, whereas nonresponders showed a decrease in DNA methylation. This is the first study to demonstrate differences in SERT methylation change in association with response to a purely psychological therapy. These findings confirm that biological changes occur alongside changes in symptomatology following a psychological therapy such as CBT

The Effect of Diet Quality and Wing Morph on Male and Female Reproductive Investment in a Nuptial Feeding Ground Cricket

A common approach in the study of life-history trade-off evolution is to manipulate the nutrient content of diets during the life of an individual in order observe how the acquisition of resources influences the relationship between reproduction, lifespan and other life-history parameters such as dispersal. Here, we manipulate the quality of diet that replicate laboratory populations received as a thorough test of how diet quality influences the life-history trade-offs associated with reproductive investment in a nuptial feeding Australian ground cricket (Pteronemobius sp.). In this species, both males and females make significant contributions to the production of offspring, as males provide a nuptial gift by allowing females to chew on a modified tibial spur during copulation and feed directing on their haemolymph. Individuals also have two distinct wing morphs, a short-winged flightless morph and a long-winged morph that has the ability to disperse. By manipulating the quality of diet over seven generations, we found that the reproductive investment of males and females were affected differently by the diet quality treatment and wing morph of the individual. We discuss the broader implications of these findings including the differences in how males and females balance current and future reproductive effort in nuptial feeding insects, the changing nature of sexual selection when diets vary, and how the life-history trade-offs associated with the ability to disperse are expected to differ among populations

Nonlinear Sigma Model for Disordered Media: Replica Trick for Non-Perturbative Results and Interactions

In these lectures, given at the NATO ASI at Windsor (2001), applications of the replicas nonlinear sigma model to disordered systems are reviewed. A particular attention is given to two sets of issues. First, obtaining non-perturbative results in the replica limit is discussed, using as examples (i) an oscillatory behaviour of the two-level correlation function and (ii) long-tail asymptotes of different mesoscopic distributions. Second, a new variant of the sigma model for interacting electrons in disordered normal and superconducting systems is presented, with demonstrating how to reduce it, under certain controlled approximations, to known ``phase-only'' actions, including that of the ``dirty bosons'' model.Comment: 25 pages, Proceedings of the NATO ASI "Field Theory of Strongly Correlated Fermions and Bosons in Low - Dimensional Disordered Systems", Windsor, August, 2001; to be published by Kluwe

Aurora kinase A drives the evolution of resistance to third-generation EGFR inhibitors in lung cancer.

Although targeted therapies often elicit profound initial patient responses, these effects are transient due to residual disease leading to acquired resistance. How tumors transition between drug responsiveness, tolerance and resistance, especially in the absence of preexisting subclones, remains unclear. In epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutant lung adenocarcinoma cells, we demonstrate that residual disease and acquired resistance in response to EGFR inhibitors requires Aurora kinase A (AURKA) activity. Nongenetic resistance through the activation of AURKA by its coactivator TPX2 emerges in response to chronic EGFR inhibition where it mitigates drug-induced apoptosis. Aurora kinase inhibitors suppress this adaptive survival program, increasing the magnitude and duration of EGFR inhibitor response in preclinical models. Treatment-induced activation of AURKA is associated with resistance to EGFR inhibitors in vitro, in vivo and in most individuals with EGFR-mutant lung adenocarcinoma. These findings delineate a molecular path whereby drug resistance emerges from drug-tolerant cells and unveils a synthetic lethal strategy for enhancing responses to EGFR inhibitors by suppressing AURKA-driven residual disease and acquired resistance

Alterations in cognitive performance during passive hyperthermia are task dependent

The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the effect of passive heating upon attention and memory task performance, and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of the application of cold packs to the head on preserving these functions. Using a counterbalance design 16 subjects underwent three trials: a control (CON, 20°C, 40% rH), hot (HOT, 50°C, 50% rH) and hot with the head kept cool (HHC). In each condition, three attention tests and two memory tests were performed. Mean core, forehead and tympanic temperatures were all significantly higher (p< 0.05) during HOT (38.6° ±0.1°, 39.6° ±0.2° and 38.8°±0.1°C, respectively) and HHC (38°±0.2, 37.7°±0.3° and 37.7°C, respectively) than in CON (37.1°±0.6°, 33.3° ±0.2° and 35.9°±0.3°C, respectively). Results indicate that there was impairment in working memory with heat exposure (p < 0.05) without alteration in attentional processes. The regular application of cold packs only prevented the detrimental effect of hyperthermia on short-term memory. Our results show that impairments in cognitive function with passive hyperthermia and the beneficial effect of head cooling are task dependent and suggests that exposure to a hot environment is a competing variable to the cognitive processes