Early cataloguing of fragments from break-up events

Break-up events represent the dominant source of objects in space catalogues, surpassing half of the overall population. These not so uncommon events include explosions, collisions or anomalous events resulting in fragmentations and their number is estimated to be higher than 630. The early cataloguing of the fragments generated during these events poses a complex challenge for space objects catalogue build-up and maintenance processes. The provision of Space Surveillance and Tracking products and services during the few first days after a break-up event can be crucial to avoid collisions between the fragments and other space objects, particularly in highly congested regimes, such as Low Earth Orbit. In this regard, reducing the time required to accurately estimate the trajectories of the fragments may enable the execution of collision avoidance manoeuvres, in the case of operational space objects with manoeuvre capabilities, and analyse potential collision cascade events, which may endanger the space environment. This paper studies the whole cataloguing process after a break-up event, starting from a catalogue with no fragments from the fragmentation under-analysis, and until a well-established orbit is obtained for all fragments, using a ground-based sensor network. First, the observations enter a multi-sensor multi-target track-to-track association algorithm in charge of grouping observations belonging to the same objects. To resolve the ambiguity, particularly shortly after the event, hypotheses about tracks belonging to the same fragment are generated, scored, pruned, and promoted, only when there is enough confidence, leading to the initialisation of new objects in the catalogue. As soon as the catalogue is populated, a track-to-orbit correlation algorithm is responsible for the correlation of observations and already catalogued orbits. This alleviates the track-to-track association and enables the update of the orbital estimates, required for maintaining the catalogue.This work was conducted during the research stay of A. Pastor in the ESA Space Debris Office at ESOC in Darmstadt. The corresponding author greatly appreciates the warm welcome, interest and support of the whole team. This project has received funding from the ”Comunidad de Madrid” under ”Ayudas destinadas a la realización de doctorados industriales” program (project IND2017/TIC7700).Publicad

Brazilian montane rainforest expansion induced by Heinrich Stadial 1 event

The origin of modern disjunct plant distributions in the Brazilian Highlands with strong floristic affinities to distant montane rainforests of isolated mountaintops in the northeast and northern Amazonia and the Guyana Shield remains unknown. We tested the hypothesis that these unexplained biogeographical patterns reflect former ecosystem rearrangements sustained by widespread plant migrations possibly due to climatic patterns that are very dissimilar from present-day conditions. To address this issue, we mapped the presence of the montane arboreal taxa Araucaria, Podocarpus, Drimys, Hedyosmum, Ilex, Myrsine, Symplocos, and Weinmannia, and cool-adapted plants in the families Myrtaceae, Ericaceae, and Arecaceae (palms) in 29 palynological records during Heinrich Stadial 1 Event, encompassing a latitudinal range of 30°S to 0°S. In addition, Principal Component Analysis and Species Distribution Modelling were used to represent past and modern habitat suitability for Podocarpus and Araucaria. The data reveals two long-distance patterns of plant migration connecting south/southeast to northeastern Brazil and Amazonia with a third short route extending from one of them. Their paleofloristic compositions suggest a climatic scenario of abundant rainfall and relative lower continental surface temperatures, possibly intensified by the effects of polar air incursions forming cold fronts into the Brazilian Highlands. Although these taxa are sensitive to changes in temperature, the combined pollen and speleothems proxy data indicate that this montane rainforest expansion during Heinrich Stadial 1 Event was triggered mainly by a less seasonal rainfall regime from the subtropics to the equatorial region.This work was funded by FAPESP research grant 2015/50683-2 to P.E. De Oliveira, VULPES Project, Belmount Forum

Strong floristic distinctiveness across Neotropical successional forests.

Forests that regrow naturally on abandoned fields are important for restoring biodiversity and ecosystem services, but can they also preserve the distinct regional tree floras? Using the floristic composition of 1215 early successional forests (<20 years) in 75 human-modified landscapes across the Neotropic realm, we identified 14 distinct floristic groups, with a between-group dissimilarity of 0.97. Floristic groups were associated with location, bioregions, soil pH, temperature seasonality, and water availability. Hence, there is large continental-scale variation in the species composition of early successional forests, which is mainly associated with biogeographic and environmental factors but not with human disturbance indicators. This floristic distinctiveness is partially driven by regionally restricted species belonging to widespread genera. Early secondary forests contribute therefore to restoring and conserving the distinctiveness of bioregions across the Neotropical realm, and forest restoration initiatives should use local species to assure that these distinct floras are maintained