Forecasting financial short time series

We study the application of time series forecasting methods to massive datasets of short financial time series. In our example, the time series arise from analyzing monthly expenses and incomes in personal financial records. Differently from traditional time series forecasting applications, we work with series of very short depth (as short as 24 data points), which prevents fromusing classical exponential smoothing methods. However, this shortcoming is compensated by the the size of our dataset: millions of time series. The latter allows tackling the problem of time series prediction from a pattern recognition perspective. Specifically, we propose a method for short time seriesprediction based on time series clustering and distance-based regression. We experimentally show that this strategy leads to improved accuracy compared to exponential smoothing methods. We additionally describe the underlying big data platform developed to carry out the forecasts in an efficient manner (comparisons to millions of elements in near real-time)

Empirical study on the use of public transport in the Community of Madrid as a key factor in sustainable mobility

The level of public transport use in the area of large cities is representative of the degree of sustainable mobility behavior. This article, based on a population survey of mobility in the Community of Madrid are and the approach of a set of hypotheses combining alternatives and modes of transportation in the framework of four different mobility scenarios, shows that, although the public transport system is currently perceived as sufficiently developed and accessible, is not capable of promoting an effective modal shift, mainly due to lower competitiveness and efficiency offered regarding the car. However, the existence of a favorable predisposition of Madrid society to accept measures aimed at improving sustainability in transportation can be a key factor in the modal shift in favor of more sustainable modes of transportEl grado de utilización del transporte público en el ámbito de las grandes ciudades es representativo del nivel de comportamiento sostenible en la movilidad. El presente artículo, sobre la base de una encuesta poblacional de movilidad en el ámbito de la Comunidad de Madrid y el planteamiento de un conjunto de hipótesis que relacionan alternativas disponibles y los modos de transporte utilizado en el marco de 4 escenarios de movilidad diferenciados, pone de manifiesto que si bien el sistema de transporte público se percibe actualmente como suficientemente desarrollado y accesible, no es capaz de impulsar un efectivo cambio modal, fundamentalmente debido a la menor competitividad y eficiencia que ofrece con respecto al automóvil. No obstante, la existencia de una predisposición favorable de la sociedad madrileña por la aceptación de medidas orientadas a una mejora de la sostenibilidad en el transporte puede suponer un factor clave en el cambio modal a favor de modos de transporte más sostenible

Developing a long short-term memory-based model for forecasting the daily energy consumption of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems in buildings

Forecasting the energy consumption of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems is important for the energy efficiency and sustainability of buildings. In fact, conventional models present limitations in these systems due to their complexity and unpredictability. To overcome this, the long short-term memory-based model is employed in this work. Our objective is to develop and evaluate a model to forecast the daily energy consumption of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems in buildings. For this purpose, we apply a comprehensive methodology that allows us to obtain a robust, generalizable, and reliable model by tuning different parameters. The results show that the proposed model achieves a significant improvement in the coefficient of variation of root mean square error of 9.5% compared to that proposed by international agencies. We conclude that these results provide an encouraging outlook for its implementation as an intelligent service for decision making, capable of overcoming the problems of other noise-sensitive models affected by data variations and disturbances without the need for expert knowledge in the domain.Se buscó pronosticar el consumo de energía de los sistemas de calefacción Heating, ventilating y aire acondicionado (HVAC) para la eficiencia energética de los edificios. En este estudio, se desarrolla un modelo de red neuronal artificial (RNA) recurrente del tipo Long short-term memory (LSTM) destinada a pronosticar el consumo de energía de un sistema HVAC en los edificios, en concreto una bomba de calor del Teatro Real de España. El trabajo comparó diferentes configuraciones del modelo con respecto a los datos reales proporcionados por el BMS del edificio y se identificó los hiperparámetros adecuados para el LSTM. El objetivo fue desarrollar y evaluar el modelo para pronosticar el consumo diario de energía de los sistemas HVAC, lográndose una predicción del uso de la energía según los criterios indicados por las directrices de American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers ASHRAE, The International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol IPMVP y The Federal Energy Management Program organismos que validan un modelo HVAC. La contribución del solicitante se centró en el diseño del LSTM, y en la validación de las pruebas con los datos experimentales, así como en el análisis de los resultados obtenidos

Connections between postparotid terminal branches of the facial nerve: An immunohistochemistry study

It has been assumed that connections between the postparotid terminal branches of the facial nerve are purely motor. However, the nature of their fibers remains unexplored. The aim of this study is to determine whether these connections comprise motor fibers exclusively. In total 17 connections between terminal facial nerve branches were obtained from 13 different facial nerves. Choline acetyltransferase antibody (ChAT) was used to stain the fibers in the connections and determine whether or not all of them were motor. All connections contained ChAT positive and negative fibers. The average number of fibers overall was 287 (84–587) and the average proportion of positive fibers was 63% (37.7%–91.5%). In 29% of the nerves, >75% of the fibers were ChAT+ (strongly positive); in 52.94%, 50%–75% were ChAT+ (intermediately positive); and in 17.65%, <50% were ChAT+ (weakly positive). Fibers traveling inside the postparotid terminal cranial nerve VII branch connections are not exclusively motor

Variables psicológicas implicadas en la actitud e iniciativa emprendedora (II): personalidad, cognición y emoción

El proyecto titulado: Variables implicadas en la actitud e iniciativa emprendedora (II): personalidad, cognición y emoción, es la continuidad de otro presentado en la convocatoria anterior (2016-2017) cuyo objetivo era evaluar variables psicológicas en la actitud emprendedora de los estudiantes universitarios de la Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM). Este segundo proyecto ha tenido por objetivo principal ampliar la evaluación a otras facultades y áreas de conocimiento de nuestra universidad a fin de obtener el mapa y perfil de la iniciativa emprendedora del universitario UCM

Emotional Perception in 11S (USA) and 11M (Spain) Advertisement

The aim of this paper is to contrast whether cognitive memory and emotional recall related to a tragic event and exposure to advertisements that evoke such an experience generates a negative emotional change in the target. We performed an experiment that analyzes emotional changes derived from advertisements featured in the national press ten years after terrorist attacks. We chose the attacks: September 11, 2001, in New York City, and March 11, 2004, in Madrid and analyze the cognitive recall in a set of Spanish and United States focus groups. The results show a significant emotional change in the respondents after the advertisement visualization that is more strongly linked to the recall of a negative event than to the advertisement creativity

Metodología Docente Basada en Casos

En este trabajo se presenta un ejemplo de docencia online real en el que se exponen el uso de herramientas novedosas de comunicación para e-learning. Además se muestra una metodología basada en casos oportuna para la consecución de objetivos propuestos en la guía de estudios

Consecución de objetivos en un Master Universitario Oficial on-line

En este trabajo se describe la experiencia del proceso de concrección necesario para el diseño e impartición on-line de un Máster Oficial cuyas competencias generales vienen establecidas dentro del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior. Se presenta un ejemplo real, basado en el Master Oficial de Ingeniería de la Decisión impartido en la Universidad Rey Juan Carlos

Emotional Perception in 11S (USA) and 11M (Spain) Advertisement

The aim of this paper is to contrast whether cognitive memory and emotional recall related to a tragic event and exposure to advertisements that evoke such an experience generates a negative emotional change in the target. We performed an experiment that analyzes emotional changes derived from advertisements featured in the national press ten years after terrorist attacks. We chose the attacks: September 11, 2001, in New York City, and March 11, 2004, in Madrid and analyze the cognitive recall in a set of Spanish and United States focus groups. The results show a significant emotional change in the respondents after the advertisement visualization that is more strongly linked to the recall of a negative event than to the advertisement creativity

La Adecuación del e-Learning a los objetivos del Espacio Europeo de Educación Superior

En este trabajo se presentan los aspectos más importantes de nuestra experiencia en la formación virtual. Los retos planteados a la hora de elaborar la asignatura Optimización de Recursos y Tecnologías de la Información dentro del Campus Virtual de ADA-Madrid suponen un punto de apoyo para afrontar algunos de los objetivos planteados por el EEES y su inminente implantación