Systemic risks emerging from global climate hotspots and their impacts on Europe

In a globalized world, Europe is increasingly affected by climate change events beyond its borders that propagate through our interconnected systems impacting the socio-economic welfare in Europe. The REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT) project uses a novel stakeholder-driven storytelling approach that maps representative connections between remote climate hazards such as droughts or hurricanes and European socio-economic activities in the agricultural, finance, development, shipping and manufacturing sectors. As part of RECEIPT, this work focuses on systemic risks in global climate risk hotspots and their knock-on effects on the European economy. In five stakeholder workshops, expert elicitation methods are used to identify and map sector- and storyline-specific systemic risks: interlinkages between different events, hidden causes and consequences, potential feedback loops, uncertainties and other systemic risk characteristics will be investigated. A special focus lies on “gray rhino” events, “foreseeable random surprises” that follow clear warning signs but are only known to a smaller group of people. Results reveal sector-specific “topographies of risk” within the storylines identified by stakeholders

Present and future atmospheric blocking and its impact on European mean and extreme climate

Atmospheric blocking plays an important role in the mid-latitude climate variability and can be responsible for anomalous mean and/or extreme climate. In this study, a potential vorticity based blocking indicator is used to investigate the representation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking events in the ECHAM5/MPI-OM climate model. The impact of blocking events on present and future mean and extreme climate is studied by means of composite maps and correlation analyses. In comparison to ERA-40 re-analysis, the model represents the blocking frequency and seasonal distribution well. We show that European blocking events have a sustained influence particularly on anomalous cold winter temperatures in Europe. In a future climate, the blocking frequency is slightly diminished but the influence on the European winter climate remains robust. Due to a northeastward shift of the blocking pattern and an increase in maximum blocking duration, cold winter temperature extremes can still be expected in a future climat

When will unusual heat waves become normal in a warming Africa?

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Slow and fast response of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations

We are investigating the fast and slow responses of changes in mean and extreme precipitation to different climate forcing mechanisms, such as greenhouse gas and solar forcing, to understand whether rapid adjustments are important for extreme precipitation. To disentangle the effect of rapid adjustment to a given forcing on the overall change in extreme precipitation we use a linear regression method that has been previously applied to mean precipitation. Equilibrium experiments with preindustrial CO2 concentrations and reduced solar constant were compared with a four times CO2 concentration experiment for 10 state-of-the-art climate models. We find that the two forcing mechanisms, greenhouse gases and solar, impose clearly different rapid adjustment signals in the mean precipitation, while such difference is difficult to discern for extreme precipitation due to large internal variability. In contrast to mean precipitation, changes in extreme precipitation scale with surface temperature trends and do not seem to depend on the forcing mechanism

Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios

This study investigates changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events under different future scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol emissions (i.e., SO2 and black and organic carbon) simulated with an aerosol-climate model (ECHAM5-HAM) with focus on Europe. The simulations include a maximum feasible aerosol reduction (MFR) scenario and a current legislation emission (CLEmod) scenario where Europe implements the MFR scenario, but the rest of the world follows the current legislation scenario and a greenhouse gas scenario. The strongest changes relative to the year 2000 are projected for the MFR scenario, in which the global aerosol reduction greatly enforces the general warming effect due to greenhouse gases and results in significant increases of temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe. Regional warming effects can also be identified from aerosol reductions under the CLEmodscenario. This becomes most obvious in the increase of the hottest summer daytime temperatures in Northern Europe. © 2013 American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Local biomass burning is a dominant cause of the observed precipitation reduction in southern Africa

Observations indicate a precipitation decline over large parts of southern Africa since the 1950s. Concurrently, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols have increased due to anthropogenic activities. Here we show that local black carbon and organic carbon aerosol emissions from biomass burning activities are a main cause of the observed decline in southern African dry season precipitation over the last century. Near the main biomass burning regions, global and regional modelling indicates precipitation decreases of 20–30%, with large spatial variability. Increasing global CO2 concentrations further contribute to precipitation reductions, somewhat less in magnitude but covering a larger area. Whereas precipitation changes from increased CO2 are driven by large-scale circulation changes, the increase in biomass burning aerosols causes local drying of the atmosphere. This study illustrates that reducing local biomass burning aerosol emissions may be a useful way to mitigate reduced rainfall in the region

Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes

A transition to renewable energy is needed to mitigate climate change. In Europe, this transition has been led by wind energy, which is one of the fastest growing energy sources. However, energy demand and production are sensitive to meteorological conditions and atmospheric variability at multiple time scales. To accomplish the required balance between these two variables, critical conditions of high demand and low wind energy supply must be considered in the design of energy systems. We describe a methodology for modeling joint distributions of meteorological variables without making any assumptions about their marginal distributions. In this context, Gaussian copulas are used to model the correlated nature of cold and weak-wind events. The marginal distributions are modeled with logistic regressions defining two sets of binary variables as predictors: four large-scale weather regimes (WRs) and the months of the extended winter season. By applying this framework to ERA5 data, we can compute the joint probabilities of co-occurrence of cold and weak-wind events on a high-resolution grid .Our results show that (a) WRs must be considered when modeling cold and weak-wind events, (b) it is essential to account for the correlations between these events when modeling their joint distribution, (c) we need to analyze each month separately, and (d) the highest estimated number of days with compound events are associated with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (3 days on average over Finland, Ireland, and Lithuania in January, and France and Luxembourg in February) and the Scandinavian blocking pattern (3 days on average over Ireland in January and Denmark in February). This information could be relevant for application in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts of such events

Synoptic and meteorological drivers of extreme ozone concentrations over Europe

The present work assesses the relationship between local and synoptic meteorological conditions and surface ozone concentration over Europe in spring and summer months, during the period 1998–2012 using a new interpolated data set of observed surface ozone concentrations over the European domain. Along with local meteorological conditions, the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on surface ozone is addressed through a set of airflow indices computed with a novel implementation of a grid-by-grid weather type classification across Europe. Drivers of surface ozone over the full distribution of maximum daily 8 h average values are investigated, along with drivers of the extreme high percentiles and exceedances or air quality guideline thresholds. Three different regression techniques are applied: multiple linear regression to assess the drivers of maximum daily ozone, logistic regression to assess the probability of threshold exceedances and quantile regression to estimate the meteorological influence on extreme values, as represented by the 95th percentile. The relative importance of the input parameters (predictors) is assessed by a backward stepwise regression procedure that allows the identification of the most important predictors in each model. Spatial patterns of model performance exhibit distinct variations between regions. The inclusion of the ozone persistence is particularly relevant over southern Europe. In general, the best model performance is found over central Europe, where the maximum temperature plays an important role as a driver of maximum daily ozone as well as its extreme values, especially during warmer months

High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics

Heat stress in cities is projected to strongly increase due to climate change. The associated health risks will be exacerbated by the high population density in cities and the urban heat island effect. However, impacts are still uncertain, which is among other factors due to the existence of multiple metrics for quantifying ambient heat and the typically rather coarse spatial resolution of climate models. Here we investigate projections of ambient heat for 36 major European cities based on a recently produced ensemble of regional climate model simulations for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) at 0.11∘ spatial resolution (∼ 12.5 km). The 0.11∘ EURO-CORDEX ensemble provides the best spatial resolution currently available from an ensemble of climate model projections for the whole of Europe and makes it possible to analyse the risk of temperature extremes and heat waves at the city level. We focus on three temperature-based heat metrics – yearly maximum temperature, number of days with temperatures exceeding 30 ∘C, and Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) – to analyse projections of ambient heat at 3 ∘C warming in Europe compared to 1981–2010 based on climate data from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble. The results show that southern European cities will be particularly affected by high levels of ambient heat, but depending on the considered metric, cities in central, eastern, and northern Europe may also experience substantial increases in ambient heat. In several cities, projections of ambient heat vary considerably across the three heat metrics, indicating that estimates based on a single metric might underestimate the potential for adverse health effects due to heat stress. Nighttime ambient heat, quantified based on daily minimum temperatures, shows similar spatial patterns to daytime conditions, albeit with substantially higher HWMId values. The identified spatial patterns of ambient heat are generally consistent with results from global Earth system models, though with substantial differences for individual cities. Our results emphasise the value of high-resolution climate model simulations for analysing climate extremes at the city level. At the same time, they highlight that improving the predominantly rather simple representations of urban areas in climate models would make their simulations even more valuable for planning adaptation measures in cities. Further, our results stress that using complementary metrics for projections of ambient heat gives important insights into the risk of future heat stress that might otherwise be missed.</p

Increasing spatiotemporal proximity of heat and precipitation extremes in a warming world quantified by a large model ensemble

Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges of climate change. Situations in which hazards occur close enough to one another to result in amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or because hazards themselves are made more severe, are of special concern. We consider projected changes in such compounding hazards using the MPI Grand Ensemble under the moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, which produces warming of about 2.25°C between pre-industrial (1851-1880) and 2100. We find that extreme heat events occurring on 3 or more consecutive days increase in frequency by 100-300%, and consecutive extreme precipitation events increase in most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance of concurrent heat and drought leading to simultaneous maize failures in 3 or more breadbasket regions increases by about 50%, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% more likely across much of the subtropics. Our results highlight the importance of taking compounding climate extremes into account when looking at possible tipping points of socio-environmental systems