The terrestrial biosphere model farm

Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are fundamental to our understanding of how the land surface responds to changes in climate. However, MIPs are challenging to conduct, requiring the organization of multiple, decentralized modeling teams throughout the world running common protocols. We explored centralizing these models on a single supercomputing system. We ran nine offline terrestrial biosphere models through the Terrestrial Biosphere Model Farm: CABLE, CENTURY, HyLand, ISAM, JULES, LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, SiB-3, and SiB-CASA. All models were wrapped in a software framework driven with common forcing data, spin-up, and run protocols specified by the Multi-scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP) for years 1901–2100. We ran more than a dozen model experiments. We identify three major benefits and three major challenges. The benefits include: (a) processing multiple models through a MIP is relatively straightforward, (b) MIP protocols are run consistently across models, which may reduce some model output variability, and (c) unique multimodel experiments can provide novel output for analysis. The challenges are: (a) technological demand is large, particularly for data and output storage and transfer; (b) model versions lag those from the core model development teams; and (c) there is still a need for intellectual input from the core model development teams for insight into model results. A merger with the open-source, cloud-based Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) ecoinformatics system may be a path forward to overcoming these challenges

Sustainable Biomass Energy and Indigenous Cultural Models of Well-being in an Alaska Forest Ecosystem

Oil-dependent indigenous communities in remote regions of Alaska and elsewhere are facing an unprecedented crisis. With the cost of fuel and transport skyrocketing, energy costs are crippling local economies, leading to increasing outmigration and concern for their very existence in the future. What can be done to address this energy crisis, and promote energy security, sustainability and resilience in rural forest communities? We examine the potential of developing a sustainable biomass-energy industry in Southeast Alaska, home to nearly 16,000 Alaska Natives in a dozen rural and two urban communities within the United States' largest national forest: The Tongass. Although the potential for biomass energy has long been touted, realization of the opportunity has been catalyzed only recently as part of a model of sustainable development being enacted by the region's largest Native corporation, Sealaska, and its subsidiary, Haa Aaní ("Our Land") L.L.C. In this paper we examine the unique nature of Alaska Native corporations and their potential as engines of sustainable development, particularly through Sealaska's emerging cultural model of sustainability in relation to social-ecological well-being. We assess the economic, ecological, and atmospheric emissions parameters of a wood-biomass energy industry at various scales according to the "triple bottom line" of sustainability. Finally, we address what additional policy and support measures may be necessary to nurture the successful transition to biomass energy at a sustainable scale to support rural indigenous communities, a more resilient, renewable energy system, and a lower carbon footprint

African tropical rainforest net carbon dioxide fluxes in the twentieth century

The African humid tropical biome constitutes the second largest rainforest region, significantly impacts global carbon cycling and climate, and has undergone major changes in functioning owing to climate and land-use change over the past century. We assess changes and trends in CO2 fluxes from 1901 to 2010 using nine land surface models forced with common driving data, and depict the inter-model variability as the uncertainty in fluxes. The biome is estimated to be a natural (no disturbance) net carbon sink (−0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1 or −0.04 Pg C yr−1, p < 0.05) with increasing strength fourfold in the second half of the century. The models were in close agreement on net CO2 flux at the beginning of the century (σ1901 = 0.02 kg C m−2 yr−1), but diverged exponentially throughout the century (σ2010 = 0.03 kg C m−2 yr−1). The increasing uncertainty is due to differences in sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO2, but not increasing water stress, despite a decrease in precipitation and increase in air temperature. However, the largest uncertainties were associated with the most extreme drought events of the century. These results highlight the need to constrain modelled CO2 fluxes with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and extreme climatic events, as the uncertainties will only amplify in the next century

Global Surface Net-Radiation at 5 km from MODIS Terra

Reliable and fine resolution estimates of surface net-radiation are required for estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, currently, fine resolution estimates of net-radiation are not available and consequently it is challenging to develop multi-year estimates of evapotranspiration at scales that can capture land surface heterogeneity and are relevant for policy and decision-making. We developed and evaluated a global net-radiation product at 5 km and 8-day resolution by combining mutually consistent atmosphere and land data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Terra. Comparison with net-radiation measurements from 154 globally distributed sites (414 site-years) from the FLUXNET and Surface Radiation budget network (SURFRAD) showed that the net-radiation product agreed well with measurements across seasons and climate types in the extratropics (Wilmott’s index ranged from 0.74 for boreal to 0.63 for Mediterranean sites). Mean absolute deviation between the MODIS and measured net-radiation ranged from 38.0 ± 1.8 W∙m−2 in boreal to 72.0 ± 4.1 W∙m−2 in the tropical climates. The mean bias was small and constituted only 11%, 0.7%, 8.4%, 4.2%, 13.3%, and 5.4% of the mean absolute error in daytime net-radiation in boreal, Mediterranean, temperate-continental, temperate, semi-arid, and tropical climate, respectively. To assess the accuracy of the broader spatiotemporal patterns, we upscaled error-quantified MODIS net-radiation and compared it with the net-radiation estimates from the coarse spatial (1° × 1°) but high temporal resolution gridded net-radiation product from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES). Our estimates agreed closely with the net-radiation estimates from the CERES. Difference between the two was less than 10 W·m−2 in 94% of the total land area. MODIS net-radiation product will be a valuable resource for the science community studying turbulent fluxes and energy budget at the Earth’s surface.ISSN:2072-429