Inequality of access in irrigation systems of the mid-hills of Nepal

Access to, and control over, water for irrigation is one of the most important factors for increasing agricultural productivity, thereby affecting household food security and levels of poverty in developing countries. However, investments in the irrigation sector have often failed to consider equity aspects of irrigation interventions. Using data from 199 households from three irrigation systems in the mid-hills of Nepal, we analyse access and control of water in different levels of socio-economic heterogeneities. The results demonstrate that efforts to improve livelihoods of the rural poor should give due consideration to the distributional aspects of irrigation interventions, with authority for allocating the level of access to irrigation water given to the farmers throughout the system

Association of Vegetable and Animal Flesh Intake with Inflammation in Pregnant Women from India

In pregnant women, studies are lacking on the relationship of vegetable and animal flesh (poultry, red meat and seafood) intake with inflammation, especially in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a cohort study of pregnant women receiving antenatal care at BJ Medical College in Pune, India. The dietary intake of pregnant women was queried in the third trimester using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Twelve inflammatory markers were measured in plasma samples using immunoassays. Only 12% of the study population were vegetarians, although animal flesh intake levels were lower compared to Western populations. In multivariable models, higher intakes of total vegetables were associated with lower levels of the T-helper (Th) 17 cytokine interleukin (IL)-17a (p = 0.03) and the monocyte/macrophage activation marker soluble CD163 (sCD163) (p = 0.02). Additionally, higher intakes of poultry were negatively associated with intestinal fatty-acid binding protein (I-FABP) levels (p = 0.01), a marker of intestinal barrier dysfunction and Th2 cytokine IL-13 (p = 0.03), and higher seafood was associated with lower IL-13 (p = 0.005). Our data from pregnant women in India suggest that a higher quality diet emphasizing vegetables and with some animal flesh is associated with lower inflammation. Future studies should confirm these findings and test if modulating vegetables and animal flesh intake could impact specific aspects of immunity and perinatal health

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Molecular epidemiology of avian influenza viruses circulating among healthy poultry flocks in farms in northern Vietnam.

Repeated epizootics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus subtype H5N1 were reported from 2003 to 2005 among poultry in Vietnam. More than 200 million birds were killed to control the spread of the disease. Human cases of H5N1 infection have been sporadically reported in an area where repeated H5N1 outbreaks among birds had occurred. Subtype H5N1 strains are established as endemic among poultry in Vietnam, however, insights into how avian influenza viruses including the H5N1 subtype are maintained in endemic areas is not clear. In order to determine the prevalence of different avian influenza viruses (AIVs), including H5N1 circulating among poultry in northern Vietnam, surveillance was conducted during the years 2006-2009. A subtype H5N1 strain was isolated from an apparently healthy duck reared on a farm in northern Vietnam in 2008 and was identified as an HPAI. Although only one H5N1 virus was isolated, it supports the view that healthy domestic ducks play a pivotal role in maintaining and transmitting H5N1 viruses which cause disease outbreaks in northern Vietnam. In addition, a total of 26 AIVs with low pathogenicity were isolated from poultry and phylogenetic analysis of all the eight gene segments revealed their diverse genetical backgrounds, implying that reassortments have occurred frequently among strains in northern Vietnam. It is, therefore, important to monitor the prevalence of influenza viruses among healthy poultry between epidemics in an area where AIVs are endemic

Navigating complexities and management prospects of natural resources in Northern Vietnam

Vietnam is a country with high levels of biodiversity, a large and growing population, and experiencing rapid transformations from a developing country to a mid-level economy. This chapter looks at the complexities of managing natural resources and development in northern Vietnam with specific reference to issues related to climate change and the renovation of Vietnam’s economy over the past 30 years. The chapter draws from the other chapters in this volume to discuss the challenges related to forestland allocation policies, governance of natural resources, intricacies of payment for environmental services, and ends by discussing some of the issues regarding the analysis of these situations in the complex socioecological systems that are found in the lowlands, midlands, and uplands of northern Vietnam. Recommendations based on the findings of the chapters in this volume are made with specific focus on improving the management of the natural resources base

Heterogeneous returns to chemical fertilizer at the intensive margins: insights from Nepal

Increased fertilizer use is considered important for agricultural development in low-income countries. Promoting increased use of chemical fertilizer by lowering its price may be ineffective if demand is price inelastic. In theory, the price elasticity of demand depends on the returns to its use, but the evidence is scarce. Furthermore, while returns are often estimated for small changes in chemical fertilizer use, returns to larger changes in its use (intensive margins) are less understood. Through the inter-zonal comparisons in Nepal, we provide indicative evidence that greater returns to chemical fertilizer are associated with greater price elasticities of demand. Moreover, the evidence suggests that returns at the intensive margins, rather than returns to small changes, may largely account for inter-zonal differences in returns to chemical fertilizer within Nepal. The results suggest that better understanding the returns at the intensive margins is critical for effective agricultural inputs policies in developing countries