Class of self-limiting growth models in the presence of nonlinear diffusion

The source term in a reaction-diffusion system, in general, does not involve explicit time dependence. A class of self-limiting growth models dealing with animal and tumor growth and bacterial population in a culture, on the other hand are described by kinetics with explicit functions of time. We analyze a reaction-diffusion system to study the propagation of spatial front for these models.Comment: RevTex, 13 pages, 5 figures. To appear in Physical Review

Evaluating range-expansion models for calculating nonnative species' expansion rate

Species range shifts associated with environmental change or biological invasions are increasingly important study areas. However, quantifying range expansion rates may be heavily influenced by methodology and/or sampling bias. We compared expansion rate estimates of Roesel's bush-cricket (Metrioptera roeselii, Hagenbach 1822), a nonnative species currently expanding its range in south-central Sweden, from range statistic models based on distance measures (mean, median, 95th gamma quantile, marginal mean, maximum, and conditional maximum) and an area-based method (grid occupancy). We used sampling simulations to determine the sensitivity of the different methods to incomplete sampling across the species' range. For periods when we had comprehensive survey data, range expansion estimates clustered into two groups: (1) those calculated from range margin statistics (gamma, marginal mean, maximum, and conditional maximum: similar to 3 km/year), and (2) those calculated from the central tendency (mean and median) and the area-based method of grid occupancy (similar to 1.5 km/year). Range statistic measures differed greatly in their sensitivity to sampling effort; the proportion of sampling required to achieve an estimate within 10% of the true value ranged from 0.17 to 0.9. Grid occupancy and median were most sensitive to sampling effort, and the maximum and gamma quantile the least. If periods with incomplete sampling were included in the range expansion calculations, this generally lowered the estimates (range 16-72%), with exception of the gamma quantile that was slightly higher (6%). Care should be taken when interpreting rate expansion estimates from data sampled from only a fraction of the full distribution. Methods based on the central tendency will give rates approximately half that of methods based on the range margin. The gamma quantile method appears to be the most robust to incomplete sampling bias and should be considered as the method of choice when sampling the entire distribution is not possible

Ecological Invasion, Roughened Fronts, and a Competitor's Extreme Advance: Integrating Stochastic Spatial-Growth Models

Both community ecology and conservation biology seek further understanding of factors governing the advance of an invasive species. We model biological invasion as an individual-based, stochastic process on a two-dimensional landscape. An ecologically superior invader and a resident species compete for space preemptively. Our general model includes the basic contact process and a variant of the Eden model as special cases. We employ the concept of a "roughened" front to quantify effects of discreteness and stochasticity on invasion; we emphasize the probability distribution of the front-runner's relative position. That is, we analyze the location of the most advanced invader as the extreme deviation about the front's mean position. We find that a class of models with different assumptions about neighborhood interactions exhibit universal characteristics. That is, key features of the invasion dynamics span a class of models, independently of locally detailed demographic rules. Our results integrate theories of invasive spatial growth and generate novel hypotheses linking habitat or landscape size (length of the invading front) to invasion velocity, and to the relative position of the most advanced invader.Comment: The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com/content/8528v8563r7u2742

A mathematical modelling tool for predicting survival of individual patients following resection of glioblastoma: a proof of principle

The prediction of the outcome of individual patients with glioblastoma would be of great significance for monitoring responses to therapy. We hypothesise that, although a large number of genetic-metabolic abnormalities occur upstream, there are two ‘final common pathways' dominating glioblastoma growth – net rates of proliferation (ρ) and dispersal (D). These rates can be estimated from features of pretreatment MR images and can be applied in a mathematical model to predict tumour growth, impact of extent of tumour resection and patient survival. Only the pre-operative gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted (T1-Gd) and T2-weighted (T2) volume data from 70 patients with previously untreated glioblastoma were used to derive a ratio D/ρ for each patient. We developed a ‘virtual control' for each patient with the same size tumour at the time of diagnosis, the same ratio of net invasion to proliferation (D/ρ) and the same extent of resection. The median durations of survival and the shapes of the survival curves of actual and ‘virtual' patients subjected to biopsy or subtotal resection (STR) superimpose exactly. For those actually receiving gross total resection (GTR), as shown by post-operative CT, the actual survival curve lies between the ‘virtual' results predicted for 100 and 125% resection of the T1-Gd volume. The concordance between predicted (virtual) and actual survivals suggests that the mathematical model is realistic enough to allow precise definition of the effectiveness of individualised treatments and their site(s) of action on proliferation (ρ) and/or dispersal (D) of the tumour cells without knowledge of any other clinical or pathological information

Biosecurity and Yield Improvement Technologies Are Strategic Complements in the Fight against Food Insecurity

The delivery of food security via continued crop yield improvement alone is not an effective food security strategy, and must be supported by pre- and post-border biosecurity policies to guard against perverse outcomes. In the wake of the green revolution, yield gains have been in steady decline, while post-harvest crop losses have increased as a result of insufficiently resourced and uncoordinated efforts to control spoilage throughout global transport and storage networks. This paper focuses on the role that biosecurity is set to play in future food security by preventing both pre- and post-harvest losses, thereby protecting crop yield. We model biosecurity as a food security technology that may complement conventional yield improvement policies if the gains in global farm profits are sufficient to offset the costs of implementation and maintenance. Using phytosanitary measures that slow global spread of the Ug99 strain of wheat stem rust as an example of pre-border biosecurity risk mitigation and combining it with post-border surveillance and invasive alien species control efforts, we estimate global farm profitability may be improved by over US$4.5 billion per annum

Role of Human-Mediated Dispersal in the Spread of the Pinewood Nematode in China

Background: Intensification of world trade is responsible for an increase in the number of alien species introductions. Human-mediated dispersal promotes not only introductions but also expansion of the species distribution via long-distance dispersal. Thus, understanding the role of anthropogenic pathways in the spread of invading species has become one of the most important challenges nowadays. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analysed the invasion pattern of the pinewood nematode in China based on invasion data from 1982 to 2005 and monitoring data on 7 locations over 15 years. Short distance spread mediated by long-horned beetles was estimated at 7.5 km per year. Infested sites located further away represented more than 90% of observations and the mean long distance spread was estimated at 111–339 km. Railways, river ports, and lakes had significant effects on the spread pattern. Human population density levels explained 87% of the variation in the invasion probability (P,0.05).Since 2001, the number of new records of the nematode was multiplied by a factor of 5 and the spread distance by a factor of 2. We combined a diffusion model to describe the short distance spread with a stochastic,individual based model to describe the long distance jumps. This combined model generated an error of only 13% when used to predict the presence of the nematode. Under two climate scenarios (stable climate or moderate warming), projections of the invasion probability suggest that this pest could expand its distribution 40–55% by 2025. Conclusions/Significance: This study provides evidence that human-induced dispersal plays a fundamental role in the spread of the pinewood nematode, and appropriate control measures should be taken to stop or slow its expansion. This model can be applied to Europe, where the nematode had been introduced later, and is currently expanding its distribution. Similar models could also be derived for other species that could be accidentally transported by humans

Transcriptional Regulation of N-Acetylglutamate Synthase

The urea cycle converts toxic ammonia to urea within the liver of mammals. At least 6 enzymes are required for ureagenesis, which correlates with dietary protein intake. The transcription of urea cycle genes is, at least in part, regulated by glucocorticoid and glucagon hormone signaling pathways. N-acetylglutamate synthase (NAGS) produces a unique cofactor, N-acetylglutamate (NAG), that is essential for the catalytic function of the first and rate-limiting enzyme of ureagenesis, carbamyl phosphate synthetase 1 (CPS1). However, despite the important role of NAGS in ammonia removal, little is known about the mechanisms of its regulation. We identified two regions of high conservation upstream of the translation start of the NAGS gene. Reporter assays confirmed that these regions represent promoter and enhancer and that the enhancer is tissue specific. Within the promoter, we identified multiple transcription start sites that differed between liver and small intestine. Several transcription factor binding motifs were conserved within the promoter and enhancer regions while a TATA-box motif was absent. DNA-protein pull-down assays and chromatin immunoprecipitation confirmed binding of Sp1 and CREB, but not C/EBP in the promoter and HNF-1 and NF-Y, but not SMAD3 or AP-2 in the enhancer. The functional importance of these motifs was demonstrated by decreased transcription of reporter constructs following mutagenesis of each motif. The presented data strongly suggest that Sp1, CREB, HNF-1, and NF-Y, that are known to be responsive to hormones and diet, regulate NAGS transcription. This provides molecular mechanism of regulation of ureagenesis in response to hormonal and dietary changes

Effects of co-habitation between Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Culex quinquefasciatus aquatic stages on life history traits

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effective measures for the control of malaria and filariasis vectors can be achieved by targeting immature stages of anopheline and culicine mosquitoes in productive habitat. To design this strategy, the mechanisms (like biotic interactions with conspecifc and heterospecific larvae) regulating mosquito aquatic stages survivorship, development time and the size of emerging adults should be understood. This study explored the effect of co-habitation between <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>on different life history traits of both species under different densities and constant food supply in the habitats of the same size under semi-natural conditions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Experiments were set up with three combinations; <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>alone (single species treatment), <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. alone (single species treatment); and <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. with <it>Cx. quiquefasciatus </it>(co-habitation treatment) in different densities in semi field situation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The effect of co-habitation of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>was found to principally affect three parameters. The wing-lengths (a proxy measure of body size) of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. in co-habitation treatments were significantly shorter in both females and males than in <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s single species treatments. In <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus</it>, no significant differences in wing-length were observed between the single species and co-habitation treatments. Daily survival rates were not significantly different between co-habitation and single species treatments for both <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus</it>. Developmental time was found to be significantly different with single species treatments developing better than co-habitation treatments. Sex ratio was found to be significantly different from the proportion of 0.5 among single and co-habitation treatments species at different densities. Single species treatments had more males than females emerging while in co-habitation treatments more females emerged than males. In this study, there was no significant competitive survival advantage in co-habitation.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest that co-habitation of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>in semi-natural conditions affect mostly <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. body size. Hence, more has to be understood on the effects of co-habitation of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. and <it>Cx. quinquefasciatus </it>in a natural ecology and its possible consequences in malaria and filariasis epidemiology.</p