New patient-oriented summary measure of net total gain in certainty for dichotomous diagnostic tests

OBJECTIVES: To introduce a new, patient-oriented predictive index as a measure of gain in certainty. STUDY DESIGN: Algebraic equations. RESULTS: A new measure is suggested based on error rates in a patient population. The new Predictive Summary Index (PSI) reflects the true total gain in certainty obtained by performing a diagnostic test based on knowledge of disease prevalence, i.e., the overall additional certainty. We show that the overall gain in certainty can be expressed in the form of the following expression: PSI = PPV+NPV-1. PSI is a more comprehensive measure than the post-test probability or the Youden Index (J). The reciprocal of J is interpreted as the number of persons with a given disease who need to be examined in order to detect correctly one person with the disease. The reciprocal of PSI is suggested as the number of persons who need to be examined in order to correctly predict a diagnosis of the disease. CONCLUSION: PSI provides more information than J and the predictive values, making it more appropriate in a clinical setting

Supernova PTF12glz: a possible shock breakout driven through an aspherical wind

We present visible-light and ultraviolet (UV) observations of the supernova PTF12glz. The SN was discovered and monitored in near-UV and R bands as part of a joint GALEX and Palomar Transient Factory campaign. It is among the most energetic Type IIn supernovae observed to date (~10^51erg). If the radiated energy mainly came from the thermalization of the shock kinetic energy, we show that PTF12glz was surrounded by ~1 solar mass of circumstellar material (CSM) prior to its explosive death. PTF12glz shows a puzzling peculiarity: at early times, while the freely expanding ejecta are presumably masked by the optically thick CSM, the radius of the blackbody that best fits the observations grows at ~8000km/s. Such a velocity is characteristic of fast moving ejecta rather than optically thick CSM. This phase of radial expansion takes place before any spectroscopic signature of expanding ejecta appears in the spectrum and while both the spectroscopic data and the bolometric luminosity seem to indicate that the CSM is optically thick. We propose a geometrical solution to this puzzle, involving an aspherical structure of the CSM around PTF12glz. By modeling radiative diffusion through a slab of CSM, we show that an aspherical geometry of the CSM can result in a growing effective radius. This simple model also allows us to recover the decreasing blackbody temperature of PTF12glz. SLAB-Diffusion, the code we wrote to model the radiative diffusion of photons through a slab of CSM and evaluate the observed radius and temperature, is made available on-line.Comment: Sumbitted to ApJ. Comments are welcom

Global Burden of Multiple Myeloma ASystematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Introduction: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell neoplasm with substantial morbidity and mortality. A comprehensive description of the global burden of MM is needed to help direct health policy, resource allocation, research, and patient care.Objective: To describe the burden of MM and the availability of effective therapies for 21 world regions and 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.Design and Setting: We report incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. Data sources include vital registration system, cancer registry, drug availability, and survey data for stem cell transplant rates. We analyzed the contribution of aging, population growth, and changes in incidence rates to the overall change in incident cases from 1990 to 2016 globally, by sociodemographic index (SDI) and by region. We collected data on approval of lenalidomide and bortezomib worldwide.Main Outcomes and Measures: Multiple myeloma mortality; incidence; years lived with disabilities; years of life lost; and DALYs by age, sex, country, and year.Results: Worldwide in 2016 there were 138 509 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 000-155 480) incident cases of MM with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.1 per 100 000 persons (95% UI, 1.8-2.3). Incident cases from 1990 to 2016 increased by 126% globally and by 106% to 192% for all SDI quintiles. The 3 world regions with the highest ASIR of MM were Australasia, North America, and Western Europe. Multiple myeloma caused 2.1 million (95% UI, 1.9-2.3 million) DALYs globally in 2016. Stem cell transplantation is routinely available in higher-income countries but is lacking in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East. In 2016, lenalidomide and bortezomib had been approved in 73 and 103 countries, respectively.Conclusions and Relevance: Incidence of MM is highly variable among countries but has increased uniformly since 1990, with the largest increase in middle and low-middle SDI countries. Access to effective care is very limited in many countries of low socioeconomic development, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Global health policy priorities for MM are to improve diagnostic and treatment capacity in low and middle income countries and to ensure affordability of effective medications for every patient. Research priorities are to elucidate underlying etiological factors explaining the heterogeneity in myeloma incidence

The expression of the ubiquitin ligase subunit Cks1 in human breast cancer

INTRODUCTION: Loss of the cell-cycle inhibitory protein p27(Kip1 )is associated with a poor prognosis in breast cancer. The decrease in the levels of this protein is the result of increased proteasome-dependent degradation, mediated and rate-limited by its specific ubiquitin ligase subunits S-phase kinase protein 2 (Skp2) and cyclin-dependent kinase subunit 1 (Cks1). Skp2 was recently found to be overexpressed in breast cancers, but the role of Cks1 in these cancers is unknown. The present study was undertaken to examine the role of Cks1 expression in breast cancer and its relation to p27(Kip1 )and Skp2 expression and to tumor aggressiveness. METHODS: The expressions of Cks1, Skp2, and p27(Kip1 )were examined immunohistochemically on formalin-fixed, paraffin-wax-embedded tissue sections from 50 patients with breast cancer and by immunoblot analysis on breast cancer cell lines. The relation between Cks1 levels and patients' clinical and histological parameters were examined by Cox regression and the Kaplan–Meier method. RESULTS: The expression of Cks1 was strongly associated with Skp2 expression (r = 0.477; P = 0.001) and inversely with p27(Kip1 )(r = -0.726; P < 0.0001). Overexpression of Cks1 was associated with loss of tumor differentiation, young age, lack of expression of estrogen receptors and of progesterone receptors, and decreased disease-free (P = 0.0007) and overall (P = 0.041) survival. In addition, Cks1 and Skp2 expression were increased by estradiol in estrogen-dependent cell lines but were down-regulated by tamoxifen. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that Cks1 is involved in p27(Kip1 )down-regulation and may have an important role in the development of aggressive tumor behavior in breast cancer

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed agespecific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitorin

Supernova PTF 12glz: A Possible Shock Breakout Driven through an Aspherical Wind

We present visible-light and ultraviolet (UV) observations of the supernova PTF 12glz. The SN was discovered and monitored in the near-UV and R bands as part of a joint GALEX and Palomar Transient Factory campaign. It is among the most energetic SNe IIn observed to date (≈10^(51) erg). If the radiated energy mainly came from the thermalization of the shock kinetic energy, we show that PTF 12glz was surrounded by ~1 M⊙ of circumstellar material (CSM) prior to its explosive death. PTF 12glz shows a puzzling peculiarity: at early times, while the freely expanding ejecta are presumably masked by the optically thick CSM, the radius of the blackbody that best fits the observations grows at ≈7000 km s^(−1). Such a velocity is characteristic of fast moving ejecta rather than optically thick CSM. This phase of radial expansion takes place before any spectroscopic signature of expanding ejecta appears in the spectrum and while both the spectroscopic data and the bolometric luminosity seem to indicate that the CSM is optically thick. We propose a geometrical solution to this puzzle, involving an aspherical structure of the CSM around PTF 12glz. By modeling radiative diffusion through a slab of CSM, we show that an aspherical geometry of the CSM can result in a growing effective radius. This simple model also allows us to recover the decreasing blackbody temperature of PTF 12glz. SLAB-Diffusion, the code we wrote to model the radiative diffusion of photons through a slab of CSM and evaluate the observed radius and temperature, is made available online

Morbidity and mortality from road injuries: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BackgroundThe global burden of road injuries is known to follow complex geographical, temporal and demographic patterns. While health loss from road injuries is a major topic of global importance, there has been no recent comprehensive assessment that includes estimates for every age group, sex and country over recent years.MethodsWe used results from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study to report incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years for all locations in the GBD 2017 hierarchy from 1990 to 2017 for road injuries. Second, we measured mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we assessed the distribution of the natures of injury (eg, traumatic brain injury) that result from each road injury.ResultsGlobally, 1 243 068 (95% uncertainty interval 1 191 889 to 1 276 940) people died from road injuries in 2017 out of 54 192 330 (47 381 583 to 61 645 891) new cases of road injuries. Age-standardised incidence rates of road injuries increased between 1990 and 2017, while mortality rates decreased. Regionally, age-standardised mortality rates decreased in all but two regions, South Asia and Southern Latin America, where rates did not change significantly. Nine of 21 GBD regions experienced significant increases in age-standardised incidence rates, while 10 experienced significant decreases and two experienced no significant change.ConclusionsWhile road injury mortality has improved in recent decades, there are worsening rates of incidence and significant geographical heterogeneity. These findings indicate that more research is needed to better understand how road injuries can be prevented