Monte Carlo Simulation and Scenario Analysis Based Limestone Quarry Production Planning

The key factor behind raw mix design in the cement factory is the appropriate production planning, resulting in high-quality raw material. Quarry managers usually come up with uncertainty-related raw materials due to variations in chemical composition. These uncertainties required efficient planning in terms of useful insight into this problem. This research provides a detailed explanation of scenario analysis of raw materials used in cement manufacturing using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and indices. Scenario analysis is used to predict the possibility of best, worst and most likely cases of raw material’s quality. Whereas, Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the inherent uncertainty associated with chemical composition values in order to analyze the impact of truly unpredictable scenarios. The predictive results help in decisions related to production planning, raw mix design optimization and increasing the probability of designing the best plan

Analysis and Forecast of Mining Fatalities in Cherat Coal Field, Pakistan

Mineral exploitation contributes to the economic growth of developing countries. Managing mineral production brought a more disturbing environment linked to workers' causalities due to scarcities in the safety management system. One of the barriers to attaining an adequate safety management system is the unavailability of future information relating to accidents causing fatalities. Policymakers always try to manage the safety system after each accident. Therefore, a precise forecast of the number of workers fatalities can provide significant observation to strengthen the safety management system. This study involves forecasting the number of mining workers fatalities in Cherat coal mines by using Auto-Regressive Integrating Moving Average Method (ARIMA) model. Workers' fatalities information was collected over the period of 1994 to 2018 from Mine Workers Federation, Inspectorate of Mines and Minerals and company records to evaluate the long-term forecast. Various diagnostic tests were used to obtain an optimistic model. The results show that ARIMA (0, 1, 2) was the most appropriate model for workers fatalities. Based on this model, casualties from 2019 to 2025 have been forecasted. The results suggest that policymakers should take systematic consideration by evaluating possible risks associated with an increased number of fatalities and develop a safe and effective working platform

A brief review on molecular, genetic and imaging techniques for HCV fibrosis evaluation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic HCV is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in the present day world. The assessment of disease progression not only provides useful information for diagnosis and therapeutic supervision judgment but also for monitoring disease. Different invasive and non invasive methods are applied to diagnose the disease from initial to end stage (mild fibrosis to cirrhosis). Although, liver biopsy is still considered as gold standard to identify liver histological stages, an assessment of the disease development based on non-invasive clinical findings is also emerging and this may replace the need of biopsy in near future. This review gives brief insight on non-invasive methods currently available for predicting liver fibrosis in HCV with their current pros and cons to make easier for a clinician to choose better marker to assess liver fibrosis in HCV infected patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>More than 200 studies regarding invasive and noninvasive markers available for HCV liver disease diagnosis were thoroughly reviewed. We examined year wise results of these markers based on their sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and AUROCs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We found that in all non-invasive serum markers for HCV, FibroTest, Forn's Index, Fibrometer and HepaScore have high five-year predictive value but with low AUROCs (0.60~0.85) and are not comparable to liver biopsy (AUROC = 0.97). Even though from its beginning, Fibroscan is proved to be best with high AUROCs (> 0.90) in all studies, no single noninvasive marker is able to differentiate all fibrosis stages from end stage cirrhosis. Meanwhile, specific genetic markers may not only discriminate fibrotic and cirrhotic liver but also differentiate individual fibrosis stages.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There is a need of marker which accurately determines the stage based on simplest routine laboratory test. Genetic marker in combination of imaging technique may be the better non invasive diagnostic method in future.</p

A comparison of four fibrosis indexes in chronic HCV: Development of new fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI)

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hepatitis C can lead to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. We compared readily available non-invasive fibrosis indexes for the fibrosis progression discrimination to find a better combination of existing non-invasive markers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied 157 HCV infected patients who underwent liver biopsy. In order to differentiate HCV fibrosis progression, readily available AAR, APRI, FI and FIB-4 serum indexes were tested in the patients. We derived a new fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI) comprised of ALP, bilirubin, serum albumin and platelet count. FCI = [(ALP × Bilirubin) / (Albumin × Platelet count)].</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Already established serum indexes AAR, APRI, FI and FIB-4 were able to stage liver fibrosis with correlation coefficient indexes 0.130, 0.444, 0.578 and 0.494, respectively. Our new fibrosis cirrhosis index FCI significantly correlated with the histological fibrosis stages F0-F1, F2-F3 and F4 (r = 0.818, p < 0.05) with AUROCs 0.932 and 0.996, respectively. The sensitivity and PPV of FCI at a cutoff value < 0.130 for predicting fibrosis stage F0-F1 was 81% and 82%, respectively with AUROC 0.932. Corresponding value of FCI at a cutoff value ≥1.25 for the prediction of cirrhosis was 86% and 100%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The fibrosis-cirrhosis index (FCI) accurately predicted fibrosis stages in HCV infected patients and seems more efficient than frequently used serum indexes.</p

Reducing the environmental impact of surgery on a global scale: systematic review and co-prioritization with healthcare workers in 132 countries

Abstract Background Healthcare cannot achieve net-zero carbon without addressing operating theatres. The aim of this study was to prioritize feasible interventions to reduce the environmental impact of operating theatres. Methods This study adopted a four-phase Delphi consensus co-prioritization methodology. In phase 1, a systematic review of published interventions and global consultation of perioperative healthcare professionals were used to longlist interventions. In phase 2, iterative thematic analysis consolidated comparable interventions into a shortlist. In phase 3, the shortlist was co-prioritized based on patient and clinician views on acceptability, feasibility, and safety. In phase 4, ranked lists of interventions were presented by their relevance to high-income countries and low–middle-income countries. Results In phase 1, 43 interventions were identified, which had low uptake in practice according to 3042 professionals globally. In phase 2, a shortlist of 15 intervention domains was generated. In phase 3, interventions were deemed acceptable for more than 90 per cent of patients except for reducing general anaesthesia (84 per cent) and re-sterilization of ‘single-use’ consumables (86 per cent). In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for high-income countries were: introducing recycling; reducing use of anaesthetic gases; and appropriate clinical waste processing. In phase 4, the top three shortlisted interventions for low–middle-income countries were: introducing reusable surgical devices; reducing use of consumables; and reducing the use of general anaesthesia. Conclusion This is a step toward environmentally sustainable operating environments with actionable interventions applicable to both high– and low–middle–income countries

Analysis of Underground Mining Accidents at Cherat Coalfield, Pakistan

Coal is the most extensively used nonrenewable energy source worldwide. In Pakistan coal is mostly mined by underground mining methods under poor and unsafe working environment. In this study, accident records of underground coal mines of Cherat coal field were collected and analysis was carried out to understand the consequences, time of occurrence and causes of accidents. Besides, occupation of a victim, responsible party and effects on production were also considered in present study. The relationship between workers’ age and severity rate was examined using regression analysis. The main causes of accidents were the fall of the roof, mine gases, electrocution, oxygen deficiency and slip fall. At Cherat coalfield, for every two mines, there is one fatality and most of the accidents occur due to roof fall between 10:00 am to 12:00 noon. It is due to the stress of production efficiency. Moreover, there is a negligible impact of accidents on coal production at Cherat coalfield from 1994 to 2015. Keyword