Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: an Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment.Government spending shocks, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Real-time data, Spending reversal, Fiscal multipliers.

Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal: an approach based on U.S. real-time data

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment. JEL Classification: E62, E65, H20Fiscal multipliers, Government spending shocks, real-time data, Spending reversal, Survey of Professional Forecasters

Early Detection with Pulse Oximetry of Hypoxemic Neonatal Conditions. Development of the IX Clinical Consensus Statement of the Ibero-American Society of Neonatology (SIBEN)

This article reviews the development of the Ninth Clinical Consensus Statement by SIBEN (the Ibero-American of Neonatology) on “Early Detection with Pulse Oximetry (SpO2) of Hypoxemic Neonatal Conditions”. It describes the process of the consensus, and the conclusions and recommendations for screening newborns with pulse oximetry

Expected fiscal policy and interest rates in open economy

This paper reconsiders the long term effect of fiscal policy on interest rates using a real-time dataset of macroeconomic and fiscal variables in a panel of 17 OECD countries over the period 1989-2009. We show that, after controlling for cross sectional dependence using a Factor Augmented Panel, interest rates are mostly related to global factors. Among domestic fiscal variables, the level of expected public debt mantains a positive correlation with interest rates, while among the global factors, the aggregate monetary and fiscal stance play a quantitatively sizeable role. We then analyze how impulses from the aggregate fiscal stance influence each country's interest rates. We find that these effects are modest in large economies and particularly strong in economies characterized by low initial financial integration, leading the way to a novel interpretation of the divergent behaviour of interest rates in the recent financial crisis.Real time data; Fiscal Policy; Interest rates; Cross sectional dependence; Heterogeneous panels; Factor model.

Assessment of the Accuracy of a Multi-Beam LED Scanner Sensor for Measuring Olive Canopies

MDPI. CC BYCanopy characterization has become important when trying to optimize any kind of agricultural operation in high-growing crops, such as olive. Many sensors and techniques have reported satisfactory results in these approaches and in this work a 2D laser scanner was explored for measuring canopy trees in real-time conditions. The sensor was tested in both laboratory and field conditions to check its accuracy, its cone width, and its ability to characterize olive canopies in situ. The sensor was mounted on a mast and tested in laboratory conditions to check: (i) its accuracy at different measurement distances; (ii) its measurement cone width with different reflectivity targets; and (iii) the influence of the target’s density on its accuracy. The field tests involved both isolated and hedgerow orchards, in which the measurements were taken manually and with the sensor. The canopy volume was estimated with a methodology consisting of revolving or extruding the canopy contour. The sensor showed high accuracy in the laboratory test, except for the measurements performed at 1.0 m distance, with 60 mm error (6%). Otherwise, error remained below 20 mm (1% relative error). The cone width depended on the target reflectivity. The accuracy decreased with the target density

DCA Control. Prevención y seguimiento de pacientes con epilepsia

Monitorización de pacientes con pulseras o relojes inteligentes tipo Angel Sensor o Xiaomi MyBand. Aplicaciones de monitorización mediante el uso de cámaras y sensores de tipo pulseras y relojes inteligentes para detectar ataques de epilepsia, desplazamientos inusuales y otros síntomas de comportamiento no habitual de personas con daño cerebral, Alzheimer y otras enfermedades

Vibration analysis of the fruit detachment process in late-season ‘Valencia’ orange with canopy shaker technology

The mechanical harvesting of juice oranges can be achieved by the application of forced vibration to the tree canopy to detach fruit. Among the available harvesting technologies, canopy shaker systems have the advantage of working continuously, with rods that penetrate the tree canopy generating low-frequency, high-amplitude movement. The objective of this work is to analyse the fruit detachment process in order to improve the design and management of canopy shaker systems, reducing the risk of damage to fruit during the mechanical harvesting process. Three different canopy shaker systems were used to remove oranges in a well-adapted intensive orchard during the harvesting period. The fruit detachment process was recorded with a triaxial accelerometer sensor with a datalogger inserted into each tested fruit. Fruit movement displayed a similar frequency value as harvester rods (4.1-4.9 Hz), while the resultant acceleration depended on the interaction of the tree-machine system (38.8-60.4 m s-2). The fruit detachment event occurrence required a vibration time ranging between 1.45-5.75 s, which can limit the machine’s maximum speed. After the detachment event, fruit presented a short mean time (0.28 s) with no interaction with other fruit, branch or machine. The interaction of fruit during the harvesting process was more important, in terms of maximum acceleration, after the detachment event (527.6 m s-2) than before (401.0 m s-2). The use of a catch frame to collect fruit and of padding material in the machinery are fundamental measures to reduce the damage caused to fruit with canopy shaker technologie

Distinction between asymptomatic monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis with cyclin D1 overexpression and mantle cell lymphoma: from molecular profiling to flow cytometry

PMCID: PMC4488901.-- et al.[Purpose]: According to current diagnostic criteria, mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) encompasses the usual, aggressive variants and rare, nonnodal cases with monoclonal asymptomatic lymphocytosis, cyclin D1- positive (MALD1). We aimed to understand the biology behind this clinical heterogeneity and to identify markers for adequate identification of MALD1 cases. [Experimental Design]: We compared 17 typical MCL cases with a homogeneous group of 13 untreated MALD1 cases (median follow-up, 71 months). We conducted gene expression profiling with functional analysis in five MCL and five MALD1. Results were validated in 12 MCL and 8 MALD1 additional cases by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and in 24MCLand 13MALD1 cases by flow cytometry. Classification and regression trees strategy was used to generate an algorithm based on CD38 and CD200 expression by flow cytometry. [Results]: We found 171 differentially expressed genes with enrichment of neoplastic behavior and cell proliferation signatures in MCL. Conversely, MALD1 was enriched in gene sets related to immune activation and inflammatory responses. CD38 and CD200 were differentially expressed betweenMCLandMALD1and confirmed by flow cytometry (median CD38, 89% vs. 14%; median CD200, 0% vs. 24%, respectively). Assessment of both proteins allowed classifying 85% (11 of 13) of MALD1 cases whereas 15% remained unclassified. SOX11 expression by qRT-PCR was significantly different between MCL and MALD1 groups but did not improve the classification. [Conclusion]: We show for the first time that MALD1, in contrast to MCL, is characterized by immune activation and driven by inflammatory cues. Assessment of CD38/CD200 by flow cytometry is useful to distinguish most cases of MALD1 from MCL in the clinical setting. MALD1 should be identified and segregated from the current MCL category to avoid overdiagnosis and unnecessary treatment.This work has been supported, in part, by grants from Instituto de Salud Carlos III RD07/0020/2004, RD09/0076/00036, RD12/0036/0044, (RTICC, FEDER), Generalitat de Catalunya 2009/SGR541, and the “Xarxa de Bancs de Tumors” sponsored by Pla Director d'Oncologia de Catalunya (XBTC).Peer Reviewe

Fruit abscission pattern of ‘Valencia’ orange with canopy shaker system

Fruit detachment can occur due to natural causes or be mechanically performed by a combination of mechanical stresses that cause tissue breakage in the plant. Forced abscission should not coincide with natural abscission zones (AZ). Abscission zones are very important in citrus harvesting both in terms of the destination market and of the possible damage caused to the tree or fruit. The objective of this study is to determine the abscission pattern of sweet oranges with a canopy shaker and compare it with other detachment systems. Five plots of Valencia oranges were tested during the 2017 and 2018 harvesting seasons, using a commercial tractor-drawn canopy shaker. The diameter, weight and breakage type were evaluated in the cases of natural fall, snap method, mechanical harvesting with canopy shaker, and pull test. Breakage type AZ-C predominated in natural fall (89.0%) and the snap method (79.5%). Similarly, AZ-A predominated for the canopy shaker (58.8%) and pull test (45.3%). Mechanical action on the fruit produced peel tear by breaking the flavedo, which reached highest frequency in the snap method (7.6%). Peel tear breakage required a mean fruit detachment force value of 99.3 N, higher than the average abscission values for AZ-C (88.7 N) and AZ-A (66.6 N). The fruit that remained on the tree after canopy shaker harvesting showed lower mean values of fruit detachment force (16.3%) than the pre-harvest fruit. The frequency of fruit with calyx with the canopy shaker and snap methods was similar, with a mean value of 36%