Validation of the cardiovascular risk model NORRISK 2 in South Asians and people with diabetes

To evaluate the predictive ability of the previously published NORRISK 2 cardiovascular risk model in Norwegian-born and immigrants born in South Asia living in Norway, and to add information about diabetes and ethnicity in an updated model for South Asians and diabetics (NORRISK 2-SADia). Design. We included participants (30–74 years) born in Norway (n = 13,885) or South Asia (n = 1942) from health surveys conducted in Oslo 2000–2003. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor information including self-reported diabetes was linked with information on subsequent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acute cerebral stroke in hospital and mortality registry data throughout 2014 from the nationwide CVDNOR project. We developed an updated model using Cox regression with diabetes and South Asian ethnicity as additional predictors. We assessed model performance by Harrell’s C and calibration plots. Results. The NORRISK 2 model underestimated the risk in South Asians in all quintiles of predicted risk. The mean predicted 13-year risk by the NORRISK 2 model was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7–4.2) versus observed 7.3% (95% CI 5.9–9.1) in South Asian men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.0–1.2) versus 2.7% (95% CI 1.7–4.2) observed risk in South Asian women. The mean predictions from the NORRISK 2-SADia model were 7.2% (95% CI 6.7–7.6) in South Asian men and 2.7% (95% CI 2.4–3.0) in South Asian women. Conclusions. The NORRISK 2-SADia model improved predictions of CVD substantially in South Asians, whose risks were underestimated by the NORRISK 2 model. The NORRISK 2-SADia model may facilitate more intense preventive measures in this high-risk population.publishedVersio

Validation of the cardiovascular risk model NORRISK 2 in South Asians and people with diabetes

Objectives To evaluate the predictive ability of the previously published NORRISK 2 cardiovascular risk model in Norwegian-born and immigrants born in South Asia living in Norway, and to add information about diabetes and ethnicity in an updated model for South Asians and diabetics (NORRISK 2-SADia). Design. We included participants (30–74 years) born in Norway (n = 13,885) or South Asia (n = 1942) from health surveys conducted in Oslo 2000–2003. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor information including self-reported diabetes was linked with information on subsequent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and acute cerebral stroke in hospital and mortality registry data throughout 2014 from the nationwide CVDNOR project. We developed an updated model using Cox regression with diabetes and South Asian ethnicity as additional predictors. We assessed model performance by Harrell’s C and calibration plots. Results. The NORRISK 2 model underestimated the risk in South Asians in all quintiles of predicted risk. The mean predicted 13-year risk by the NORRISK 2 model was 3.9% (95% CI 3.7–4.2) versus observed 7.3% (95% CI 5.9–9.1) in South Asian men and 1.1% (95% CI 1.0–1.2) versus 2.7% (95% CI 1.7–4.2) observed risk in South Asian women. The mean predictions from the NORRISK 2-SADia model were 7.2% (95% CI 6.7–7.6) in South Asian men and 2.7% (95% CI 2.4–3.0) in South Asian women. Conclusions. The NORRISK 2-SADia model improved predictions of CVD substantially in South Asians, whose risks were underestimated by the NORRISK 2 model. The NORRISK 2-SADia model may facilitate more intense preventive measures in this high-risk population.publishedVersio

Change in cardiovascular risk assessment tool and updated Norwegian guidelines for cardiovascular disease in primary prevention increase the population proportion at risk: The Tromsø Study 2015-2016

Aims - To compare the population proportion at high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) using the Norwegian NORRISK 1 that predicts 10-year risk of CVD mortality and the Norwegian national guidelines from 2009, with the updated NORRISK 2 that predicts 10-year risk of both fatal and non-fatal risk of CVD and the Norwegian national guidelines from 2017. Methods - We included participants from the Norwegian population-based Tromsø Study (2015–2016) aged 40–69 years without a history of CVD (n=16 566). The total proportion eligible for intervention was identified by NORRISK 1 and the 2009 guidelines (serum total cholesterol ≥8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure ≥160 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥100 mm Hg) and NORRISK 2 and the 2017 guidelines (serum total cholesterol ≥7 mmol/L, low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol ≥5 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure ≥160 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥100 mm Hg). Results - The total proportion at high risk as defined by a risk score was 12.0% using NORRISK 1 and 9.8% using NORRISK 2. When including single risk factors specified by the guidelines, the total proportion eligible for intervention was 15.5% using NORRISK 1 and the 2009 guidelines and 18.9% using NORRISK 2 and the 2017 guidelines. The lowered threshold for total cholesterol and specified cut-off for LDL cholesterol stand for a large proportion of the increase in population at risk. Conclusion - The population proportion eligible for intervention increased by 3.4 percentage points from 2009 to 2017 using the revised NORRISK 2 score and guidelines

Hypertensive pregnancy disorders increase the risk of maternal cardiovascular disease after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors

Background and aim: Hypertensive pregnancy disorders are associated with subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the extent to which this association is explained by shared risk factors is unknown. We aimed to evaluate whether hypertensive pregnancy disorder in first pregnancy is associated with increased subsequent risk of maternal CVD after adjustment for established CVD risk factors measured after pregnancy. Methods and results: A total of 20,075 women with a first delivery registered in the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (1980–2003) participated in Cohort of Norway (CONOR) health surveys a mean (standard deviation) of 10.7 (5.5) years after delivery. They were then followed (median 11.4 years) for an incident fatal or non-fatal CVD event through linkage to the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) database and the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Hypertensive pregnancy disorders were associated with an increased risk of CVD [Hazard ratio (HR) 2.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9–2.8], which remained significant after adjustment for established CVD risk factors including body mass index, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, serum glucose and lipid levels (HR 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8). The population attributable fraction of CVD due to hypertensive pregnancy disorder was 4.3% (95% CI 1.9–6.6) after multivariable adjustment. Conclusion: The association between hypertensive pregnancy disorders and CVD risk was mediated in part by related CVD risk factors measured 10 years following delivery. These results underline the importance of post-pregnancy follow-up of women with hypertensive pregnancy disorders focusing on modifiable, lifestyle related risk factors to prevent future CVD.acceptedVersio

Prevalence and incidence rates of atrial fibrillation in Norway 2004-2014

Objective: To study time trends in incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the entire Norwegian population from 2004 to 2014, by age and sex, and to estimate the prevalence of AF at the end of the study period. Methods: A national cohort of patients with AF (≥18 years) was identified from inpatient admissions with AF and deaths with AF as underlying cause (1994–2014), and AF outpatient visits (2008–2014) in the Cardiovascular Disease in Norway (CVDNOR) project. AF admissions or out-of-hospital death from AF, with no AF admission the previous 10 years defined incident AF. Age-standardised incidence rates (IR) and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were calculated. All AF cases identified through inpatient admissions and outpatient visits and alive as of 31 December 2014 defined AF prevalence. Results: We identified 175 979 incident AF cases (30% primary diagnosis, 69% secondary diagnosis, 0.6% out-of-hospital deaths). AF IRs (95% confidence intervals) per 100 000 person years were stable from 2004 (433 (426–440)) to 2014 (440 (433–447)). IRs were stable or declining across strata of sex and age with the exception of an average yearly increase of 2.4% in 18–44 year-olds: IRR 1.024 (1.014–1.034). In 2014, the prevalence of AF in the adult population was 3.4%. Conclusions: We found overall stable IRs of AF for the adult Norwegian population from 2004 to 2014. The prevalence of AF was 3.4% at the end of 2014, which is higher than reported in previous studies. Signs of an increasing incidence of early-onset AF (<45 years) are worrying and need further investigation.publishedVersio

“The people who are out of ‘right’ English”: Japanese university students' social evaluations of English language diversity and the internationalisation of Japanese higher education

Previous research indicates that evaluations of speech forms reflect stereotypes of, and attitudes towards, the perceived group(s) of speakers of the language/variety under consideration. This study, employing both implicit and explicit attitude measures, investigates 158 Japanese university students' perceptions of forms of UK, US, Japanese, Chinese, Thai and Indian English speech. The results show a general convergence between students' explicit and implicit attitudes, for instance, regarding US and UK English as the most correct, and solidarity with Japanese speakers of English. The findings are discussed in relation to intergroup relations between the traditional Japanese cohort and specific groups of overseas students, particularly in light of recent internationalisation policies adopted by many Japanese universities, and the resultant increase in international students from South and East Asia

Identification of known and novel recurrent viral sequences in data from multiple patients and multiple cancers

Virus discovery from high throughput sequencing data often follows a bottom-up approach where taxonomic annotation takes place prior to association to disease. Albeit effective in some cases, the approach fails to detect novel pathogens and remote variants not present in reference databases. We have developed a species independent pipeline that utilises sequence clustering for the identification of nucleotide sequences that co-occur across multiple sequencing data instances. We applied the workflow to 686 sequencing libraries from 252 cancer samples of different cancer and tissue types, 32 non-template controls, and 24 test samples. Recurrent sequences were statistically associated to biological, methodological or technical features with the aim to identify novel pathogens or plausible contaminants that may associate to a particular kit or method. We provide examples of identified inhabitants of the healthy tissue flora as well as experimental contaminants. Unmapped sequences that co-occur with high statistical significance potentially represent the unknown sequence space where novel pathogens can be identified

Cardiovascular Risk Factors Associated With Venous Thromboembolism.

IMPORTANCE: It is uncertain to what extent established cardiovascular risk factors are associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE). OBJECTIVE: To estimate the associations of major cardiovascular risk factors with VTE, ie, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study included individual participant data mostly from essentially population-based cohort studies from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (ERFC; 731 728 participants; 75 cohorts; years of baseline surveys, February 1960 to June 2008; latest date of follow-up, December 2015) and the UK Biobank (421 537 participants; years of baseline surveys, March 2006 to September 2010; latest date of follow-up, February 2016). Participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline were included. Data were analyzed from June 2017 to September 2018. EXPOSURES: A panel of several established cardiovascular risk factors. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hazard ratios (HRs) per 1-SD higher usual risk factor levels (or presence/absence). Incident fatal outcomes in ERFC (VTE, 1041; coronary heart disease [CHD], 25 131) and incident fatal/nonfatal outcomes in UK Biobank (VTE, 2321; CHD, 3385). Hazard ratios were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Of the 731 728 participants from the ERFC, 403 396 (55.1%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 51.9 (9.0) years; of the 421 537 participants from the UK Biobank, 233 699 (55.4%) were female, and the mean (SD) age at the time of the survey was 56.4 (8.1) years. Risk factors for VTE included older age (ERFC: HR per decade, 2.67; 95% CI, 2.45-2.91; UK Biobank: HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.71-1.92), current smoking (ERFC: HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58; UK Biobank: HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.08-1.40), and BMI (ERFC: HR per 1-SD higher BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.35-1.50; UK Biobank: HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.32-1.41). For these factors, there were similar HRs for pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in UK Biobank (except adiposity was more strongly associated with pulmonary embolism) and similar HRs for unprovoked vs provoked VTE. Apart from adiposity, these risk factors were less strongly associated with VTE than CHD. There were inconsistent associations of VTEs with diabetes and blood pressure across ERFC and UK Biobank, and there was limited ability to study lipid and inflammation markers. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Older age, smoking, and adiposity were consistently associated with higher VTE risk.This research has been conducted using the UK Biobank resource under Application Number 26865. This work was supported by underpinning grants from the UK Medical Research Council (grant G0800270), the British Heart Foundation (grant SP/09/002), the British Heart Foundation Cambridge Cardiovascular Centre of Excellence, UK National Institute for Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, European Research Council (grant 268834), the European Commission Framework Programme 7 (grant HEALTH-F2-2012-279233), and Health Data Research UK. Dr Danesh holds a British Heart Foundation Personal Chair and a National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator Award

The Cancer Registry of Norway – “a ground for scientific harvesting”

The Cancer Registry of Norway (CRN) has been important in registry-based research in Norway for decades. The use of CRN in combination with other population-based registries and health surveys have been the basis for numerous research projects, which has contributed to fill important knowledge gaps. Researchers at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health and CRN have a long tradition of using these data sources to address research questions of common interests such as e.g. the effect of life style and diet on cancer risk. CRN and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway have co-existed for a long period, making it possible to study cancer incidence and birth characteristics over generations. During the last decades, several new registries such as the Norwegian Prescription Database and the Norwegian Patient Registry have been established, providing opportunities for studying for example drug use and cancer risk and the influence of comorbidities on the development of cancer. In the future, the CRN will be an even more valuable data source when also other population-based registries and health surveys have existed for longer time periods.publishedVersio