A Bayesian approach to correct for unmeasured or semi-unmeasured confounding in survival data using multiple validation data sets

Purpose: The existence of unmeasured confounding can clearly undermine the validity of an observational study. Methods of conducting sensitivity analyses to evaluate the impact of unmeasured confounding are well established. However, application of such methods to survival data (“time-to-event” outcomes) have received little attention in the literature. The purpose of this study is to propose a novel Bayesian method to account for unmeasured confounding for survival data.   Methods: The Bayesian method is proposed under an assumption that the supplementary information on unmeasured confounding in the form of internal validation data, external validation data or expert elicited prior distributions is available. The method for incorporating such information to Cox proportional hazard model is described.  Simulation studies are performed based on the recently published instrumental variable method to assess the impact of unmeasured confounding and to illustrate the improvement of the proposed method over the naïve model which ignores unmeasured confounding.   Results: Simulation studies illustrate the impact of ignoring the unmeasured confounding and the effectiveness of our Bayesian approach. The corrected model had significantly less bias and coverage of 95% intervals much closer to nominal.   Conclusion: The proposed Bayesian method provides a useful and flexible tool in incorporating different types of supplemental information on unmeasured confounding to adjust the treatment estimates when the outcome is survival data.  It out-performed the naïve model in simulation studies based on a real world study. &nbsp

Earliest archaeological evidence of persistent hominin carnivory

The emergence of lithic technology by ~2.6 million years ago (Ma) is often interpreted as a correlate of increasingly recurrent hominin acquisition and consumption of animal remains. Associated faunal evidence, however, is poorly preserved prior to ~1.8 Ma, limiting our understanding of early archaeological (Oldowan) hominin carnivory. Here, we detail three large well-preserved zooarchaeological assemblages from Kanjera South, Kenya. The assemblages date to ~2.0 Ma, pre-dating all previously published archaeofaunas of appreciable size. At Kanjera, there is clear evidence that Oldowan hominins acquired and processed numerous, relatively complete, small ungulate carcasses. Moreover, they had at least occasional access to the fleshed remains of larger, wildebeest-sized animals. The overall record of hominin activities is consistent through the stratified sequence ??? spanning hundreds to thousands of years ??? and provides the earliest archaeological evidence of sustained hominin involvement with fleshed animal remains (i.e., persistent carnivory), a foraging adaptation central to many models of hominin evolution.This research was supported by funding from the National Science Foundation, Leakey Foundation, Wenner-Gren Foundation, National Geographic Society, The Leverhulme Trust, University of California, Baylor University, and the City University of New York. Additional logistical support was provided by the Smithsonian Institution???s Human Origins Program and the Peter Buck Fund for Human Origins Research, the British Institute in Eastern Africa, and the National Museums of Kenya. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Correlating Global Gene Regulation to Angiogenesis in the Developing Chick Extra-Embryonic Vascular System

International audienceBACKGROUND: Formation of blood vessels requires the concerted regulation of an unknown number of genes in a spatial-, time- and dosage-dependent manner. Determining genes, which drive vascular maturation is crucial for the identification of new therapeutic targets against pathological angiogenesis. METHOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We accessed global gene regulation throughout maturation of the chick chorio-allantoic membrane (CAM), a highly vascularized tissue, using pan genomic microarrays. Seven percent of analyzed genes showed a significant change in expression (>2-fold, FDR<5%) with a peak occurring from E7 to E10, when key morphogenetic and angiogenic genes such as BMP4, SMO, HOXA3, EPAS1 and FGFR2 were upregulated, reflecting the state of an activated endothelium. At later stages, a general decrease in gene expression occurs, including genes encoding mitotic factors or angiogenic mediators such as CYR61, EPAS1, MDK and MYC. We identified putative human orthologs for 77% of significantly regulated genes and determined endothelial cell enrichment for 20% of the orthologs in silico. Vascular expression of several genes including ENC1, FSTL1, JAM2, LDB2, LIMS1, PARVB, PDE3A, PRCP, PTRF and ST6GAL1 was demonstrated by in situ hybridization. Up to 9% of the CAM genes were also overexpressed in human organs with related functions, such as placenta and lung or the thyroid. 21-66% of CAM genes enriched in endothelial cells were deregulated in several human cancer types (P<.0001). Interfering with PARVB (encoding parvin, beta) function profoundly changed human endothelial cell shape, motility and tubulogenesis, suggesting an important role of this gene in the angiogenic process. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study underlines the complexity of gene regulation in a highly vascularized organ during development. We identified a restricted number of novel genes enriched in the endothelium of different species and tissues, which may play crucial roles in normal and pathological angiogenesis

Spatially-coordinated airborne data and complementary products for aerosol, gas, cloud, and meteorological studies: The NASA ACTIVATE dataset

The NASA Aerosol Cloud meTeorology Interactions oVer the western ATlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) produced a unique dataset for research into aerosol-cloud-meteorology interactions. An HU-25 Falcon and King Air conducted systematic and spatially coordinated flights over the northwest Atlantic Ocean. This paper describes the ACTIVATE flight strategy, instrument and complementary dataset products, data access and usage details, and data application notes

Finishing the euchromatic sequence of the human genome

The sequence of the human genome encodes the genetic instructions for human physiology, as well as rich information about human evolution. In 2001, the International Human Genome Sequencing Consortium reported a draft sequence of the euchromatic portion of the human genome. Since then, the international collaboration has worked to convert this draft into a genome sequence with high accuracy and nearly complete coverage. Here, we report the result of this finishing process. The current genome sequence (Build 35) contains 2.85 billion nucleotides interrupted by only 341 gaps. It covers ∼99% of the euchromatic genome and is accurate to an error rate of ∼1 event per 100,000 bases. Many of the remaining euchromatic gaps are associated with segmental duplications and will require focused work with new methods. The near-complete sequence, the first for a vertebrate, greatly improves the precision of biological analyses of the human genome including studies of gene number, birth and death. Notably, the human enome seems to encode only 20,000-25,000 protein-coding genes. The genome sequence reported here should serve as a firm foundation for biomedical research in the decades ahead

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Multivariate regression analysis with dependent observations: conditions for the invariance of the distribution of the Lawley-Hotelling test for the model utility

In this paper we derive necessary and sufficient conditions on the error covariance structure such that the Lawley-Hotelling statistic for testing model utility is invariant from its distribution under the usual assumption of normal i.i.d. observation vectors. We, therefore, generalize the work of Arnold (1979), Ghosh and Sinha (1980), and Tranquilli and Baldesarri (1988)

Co‐occurrence of antibiotic, biocide, and heavy metal resistance genes in bacteria from metal and radionuclide contaminated soils at the Savannah River Site

Summary Contaminants such as heavy metals may contribute to the dissemination of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by enriching resistance gene determinants via co‐selection mechanisms. In the present study, a survey was performed on soils collected from four areas at the Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina, USA, with varying contaminant profiles: relatively pristine (Upper Three Runs), heavy metals (Ash Basins), radionuclides (Pond B) and heavy metal and radionuclides (Tim’s Branch). Using 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, we explored the structure and diversity of soil bacterial communities. Sites with legacies of metal and/or radionuclide contamination displayed significantly lower bacterial diversity compared to the reference site. Metagenomic analysis indicated that multidrug and vancomycin antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and metal resistance genes (MRGs) including those associated with copper, arsenic, iron, nickel and zinc were prominent in all soils including the reference site. However, significant differences were found in the relative abundance and diversity of certain ARGs and MRGs in soils with metal/radionuclide contaminated soils compared to the reference site. Co‐occurrence patterns revealed significant ARG/MRG subtypes in predominant soil taxa including Acidobacteriaceae, Bradyrhizobium, Mycobacterium, Streptomyces, Verrumicrobium, Actinomadura and Solirubacterales. Overall, the study emphasizes the potential risk of human activities on the dissemination of AMR in the environment