The VOL-CALPUFF model for atmospheric ash dispersal: 1. Approach and physical formulation

We present a new modeling tool, named VOL-CALPUFF, that is able to simulate the transient and three-dimensional transport and deposition of volcanic ash under the action of realistic meteorological and volcanological conditions throughout eruption duration. The new model derives from the CALPUFF System, a software program widely used in environmental applications of pollutant dispersion, that describes the dispersal process in both the proximal and distal regions and also in the presence of complex orography. The main novel feature of the model is its capability of coupling a Eulerian description of plume rise with a Lagrangian representation of ash dispersal described as a series of diffusing packets of particles or puffs. The model is also able to describe the multiparticle nature of the mixture as well as the tilting effects of the plume due to wind action. The dispersal dynamics and ash deposition are described by using refined orography-corrected meteorological data with a spatial resolution up to 1 km or less and a temporal step of 1 h. The modeling approach also keeps the execution time to a few minutes on common PCs, thus making VOL-CALPUFF a possible tool for the production of ash dispersal forecasts for hazard assessment. Besides the model formulation, this paper presents the type of outcomes produced by VOL-CALPUFF, shows the effect of main model parameters on results, and also anticipates the fundamental control of atmospheric conditions on the ash dispersal processes. In the companion paper, Barsotti and Neri present a first thorough application of VOL-CALPUFF to the simulation of a weak plume at Mount Etna (Italy) with the specific aim of comparing model predictions with independent observations

The VOL-CALPUFF model for atmospheric ash dispersal. I. Approach and physical formulation

We present a new modeling tool, named VOL-CALPUFF able to simulate the transient and three-dimensional transport and deposition of volcanic ash under the action of realistic meteorological and volcanological conditions throughout eruption duration. The new model derives from the CALPUFF System, a software program widely-used in environmental applications of pollutant dispersion, that describes the dispersal process both in the proximal and distal regions and also in presence of complex orography. The main novel feature of the model is its capability of coupling a Eulerian description of plume rise with a Lagrangian representation of ash dispersal described as a series of diffusing packets of particles or puffs. The model is also able to describe the multiparticle nature of the mixture as well as the tilting effects of the plume due to wind action. The dispersal dynamics and ash deposition are described by using refined orography-corrected meteorological data with a spatial resolution up to 1 km or less and a temporal step of 1 hour. The modeling approach also keeps the execution time to a few minutes on common PCs, thus making VOL-CALPUFF a possible tool for the production of ash dispersal forecasts for hazard assessment. Besides the model formulation, the paper presents the type of outcomes produced by VOL-CALPUFF, shows the effect of main model parameters on results, and also anticipates the fundamental control of atmospheric conditions on the ash dispersal processes. In the companion paper (\cite{barsotti}, this issue) a first thorough application of VOL-CALPUFF to the simulation of a weak plume at Mount Etna (Italy) is presented with the specific aim of comparing model predictions with independent observations

Topological insight into the non-Arrhenius mode hopping of semiconductor ring lasers

We investigate both theoretically and experimentally the stochastic switching between two counter-propagating lasing modes of a semiconductor ring laser. Experimentally, the residence time distribution cannot be described by a simple one parameter Arrhenius exponential law and reveals the presence of two different mode-hop scenarios with distinct time scales. In order to elucidate the origin of these two time scales, we propose a topological approach based on a two-dimensional dynamical system.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Spitzer Warm Mission Transition and Operations

Following the successful dynamic planning and implementation of IRAC Warm Instrument Characterization activities, transition to Spitzer Warm Mission operations has gone smoothly. Operation teams procedures and processes required minimal adaptation and the overall composition of the Mission Operation System retained the same functionality it had during the Cryogenic Mission. While the warm mission scheduling has been simplified because all observations are now being made with a single instrument, several other differences have increased the complexity. The bulk of the observations executed to date have been from ten large Exploration Science programs that, combined, have more complex constraints, more observing requests, and more exo-planet observations with durations of up to 145 hours. Communication with the observatory is also becoming more challenging as the Spitzer DSN antenna allocations have been reduced from two tracking passes per day to a single pass impacting both uplink and downlink activities. While IRAC is now operating with only two channels, the data collection rate is roughly 60% of the four-channel rate leaving a somewhat higher average volume collected between the less frequent passes. Also, the maximum downlink data rate is decreasing as the distance to Spitzer increases requiring longer passes. Nevertheless, with well over 90% of the time spent on science observations, efficiency has equaled or exceeded that achieved during the cryogenic mission

Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change

Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for projecting smoke consequences in a rapidly warming climate that is expected to change wildfire regimes significantly. We describe each component of the system, offer suggestions for the elements of a modeling agenda, and provide some general guidelines for making choices among potential components. We address a prospective audience of researchers whom we expect to be fluent already in building some or many of these components, so we neither prescribe nor advocate particular models or software. Instead, our intent is to highlight fruitful ways of thinking about the task as a whole and its components, while providing substantial, if not exhaustive, documentation from the primary literature as reference. This paper provides a guide to the complexities of smoke modeling under climate change, and a research agenda for developing a modeling system that is equal to the task while being feasible with current resources

Defining anti-synthetase syndrome: a systematic literature review

OBJECTIVES: Anti-synthetase syndrome (ASSD) is a heterogeneous autoimmune disease characterised by multi-system involvement with a wide variety of manifestations. Validated classification criteria are necessary to improve recognition and prevent misclassification, especially given the lack of reliable and standardised autoantibody testing. We systematically reviewed the literature to analyse proposed ASSD criteria, characteristics, and diagnostic performance. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase databases (01/01/1984 to 06/11/2018) and the ACR and EULAR meeting abstracts (2017-2018). Sensitivities, specificities, positive, negative likelihood ratios and risk of bias were calculated for ASSD criteria and key variables reported in the literature. We performed meta-analysis when appropriate. RESULTS: We retrieved 4,358 studies. We found 85 proposed ASSD criteria from a total of 82 studies. All but one study included anti-synthetase autoantibody (ARS) positivity in the ASSD criteria. Most studies required only one ASSD feature plus anti-ARS to define ASSD (n=64, 78%), whereas 16 studies required more than one ASSD variable plus anti-ARS. The only criteria not including anti-ARS positivity required 5 ASSD clinical features. We found limited data and wide variability in the diagnostic performance of each variable and definition proposed in the literature. Given these limitations we only meta-analysed the performance of individual muscle biopsy and clinical variables in diagnosing ASSD, which performed poorly. CONCLUSIONS: The current ASSD criteria include a variety of serological, clinical, and histological features with wide variability amongst proposed definitions and the performance of these definitions has not been tested. This systematic literature review suggests the need for additional data and consensus-driven classification criteria for ASSD

EULAR Points to Consider for the use of imaging to guide interventional procedures in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs)

OBJECTIVES: To develop evidence-based Points to Consider (PtC) for the use of imaging modalities to guide interventional procedures in patients with rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases (RMDs). METHODS: European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR) standardised operating procedures were followed. A systematic literature review was conducted to retrieve data on the role of imaging modalities including ultrasound (US), fluoroscopy, MRI, CT and fusion imaging to guide interventional procedures. Based on evidence and expert opinion, the task force (25 participants consisting of physicians, healthcare professionals and patients from 11 countries) developed PtC, with consensus obtained through voting. The final level of agreement was provided anonymously. RESULTS: A total of three overarching principles and six specific PtC were formulated. The task force recommends preference of imaging over palpation to guide targeted interventional procedures at peripheral joints, periarticular musculoskeletal structures, nerves and the spine. While US is the favoured imaging technique for peripheral joints and nerves, the choice of the imaging method for the spine and sacroiliac joints has to be individualised according to the target, procedure, expertise, availability and radiation exposure. All imaging guided interventions should be performed by a trained specialist using appropriate operational procedures, settings and assistance by technical personnel. CONCLUSION: These are the first EULAR PtC to provide guidance on the role of imaging to guide interventional procedures in patients with RMDs

Economic considerations and patients’ preferences affect treatment selection for rheumatoid arthritis patients : A discrete choice experiment among European rheumatologists

Peer reviewedPostprin

Influence of antisynthetase antibodies specificities on antisynthetase syndrome clinical spectrum time course

Antisynthetase syndrome (ASSD) is a rare clinical condition that is characterized by the occurrence of a classic clinical triad, encompassing myositis, arthritis, and interstitial lung disease (ILD), along with specific autoantibodies that are addressed to different aminoacyl tRNA synthetases (ARS). Until now, it has been unknown whether the presence of a different ARS might affect the clinical presentation, evolution, and outcome of ASSD. In this study, we retrospectively recorded the time of onset, characteristics, clustering of triad findings, and survival of 828 ASSD patients (593 anti-Jo1, 95 anti-PL7, 84 anti-PL12, 38 anti-EJ, and 18 anti-OJ), referring to AENEAS (American and European NEtwork of Antisynthetase Syndrome) collaborative group's cohort. Comparisons were performed first between all ARS cases and then, in the case of significance, while using anti-Jo1 positive patients as the reference group. The characteristics of triad findings were similar and the onset mainly began with a single triad finding in all groups despite some differences in overall prevalence. The "ex-novo" occurrence of triad findings was only reduced in the anti-PL12-positive cohort, however, it occurred in a clinically relevant percentage of patients (30%). Moreover, survival was not influenced by the underlying anti-aminoacyl tRNA synthetase antibodies' positivity, which confirmed that antisynthetase syndrome is a heterogeneous condition and that antibody specificity only partially influences the clinical presentation and evolution of this condition