Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: Results from a co-design process

The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project "BioNex - The future of the biomass nexus" is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches

Modelling consumption and constructing long-term baselines in final demand

Modelling and projecting consumption, investment and government demand by detailed commodities in CGE models poses many data and methodological challenges. We review the state of knowledge of modelling consumption of commodities (price and income elasticities and demographics), as well as the historical trends that we should be able to explain. We then discuss the current approaches taken in CGE models to project the trends in demand at various levels of commodity disaggregation. We examine the pros and cons of the various approaches to adjust parameters over time or using functions of time and suggest a research agenda to improve modelling and projection. We compare projections out to 2050 using LES, CES and AIDADS functions in the same CGE model to illustrate the size of the differences. In addition, we briefly discuss the allocation of total investment and government demand to individual commodities

The impact of livestock support measures on groundwater depletion in Turkey

Turkey is a major agricultural player and serves as an important food hub for its neighboring countries in the water-scarce Middle East and North African region. However, partly due to a lack of natural pasture land, the Turkish livestock sector exhibits low productivity, and this is why the Turkish government has introduced various policies in support of this sector, including direct payments to irrigated fodder crops such as maize for silage. In order to assess the effect of these policies, a single country CGE model has been linked to a water footprint module. Results suggest that removal of Turkish subsidies and tariffs that currently support the livestock sector may not lead to water savings in absolute terms, but would redirect a substantial amount of irrigation water towards crops that Turkey can produce more competitively. Also, it is found that programs for the improvement of livestock genetics in Turkey may lead to net economic gains and overall water savings

Higher income and higher prices: the role of demand specifications and elasticities of livestock products for global land use

Global land use change is influenced by changes in diets towards more livestock products as well as additional demand for biomass from a growing biofuels industry. Global simulation models trying to quantify future food demand and subsequent land use change often differ in their results due to different demand specifications and elasticities. In order to isolate the impact of the latter on food demand and subsequent land use change we calibrate the global CGE model DART-BIO to different demand specifications and test the effect of changing income elasticities for livestock products. Our findings confirm the importance of demand specifications and income elasticities in influencing final models results, as the size of fixed subsistence quantities in the linear expenditure system (LES) determines the overall flexibility of demand. Large subsistence quantities dampen the responsiveness of private demand to income and price changes and lead to unrealistic reductions in global land use. As income elasticities of livestock demand in China and India become less elastic with growing income, the subsequent decrease in demand for livestock products and fodder crops affects land use worldwide. In general, there is some land use change at the expense of either soybeans or wheat in favor of oilseeds in all regions although the percentages remain very small. In addition, our results imply that the positive impact of biofuel production on livestock output as found by other studies is not reciprocal

The impact of livestock support measures on groundwater depletion in Turkey

Turkey is a major agricultural player and serves as an important food hub for its neighboring countries in the water-scarce Middle East and North African region. However, partly due to a lack of natural pasture land, the Turkish livestock sector exhibits low productivity, and this is why the Turkish government has introduced various policies in support of this sector, including direct payments to irrigated fodder crops such as maize for silage. In order to assess the effect of these policies, a single country CGE model has been linked to a water footprint module. Results suggest that removal of Turkish subsidies and tariffs that currently support the livestock sector may not lead to water savings in absolute terms, but would redirect a substantial amount of irrigation water towards crops that Turkey can produce more competitively. Also, it is found that programs for the improvement of livestock genetics in Turkey may lead to net economic gains and overall water savings

Livestock Support and Water Depletion in Turkey

Turkey serves as an important food hub for neighboring countries in the water‐scarce Middle East and North African region, and self‐sufficiency in agri‐food production is one of the country's major policy objectives. The Turkish government had therefore introduced various support measures for its inefficient livestock sector, including payments for irrigated fodder crops, which are likely to increase water depletion. To simultaneously assess the economic and environmental effects of these policies, we link an economy‐wide computable general equilibrium model of Turkey to a newly developed water footprint module. We find that removal of direct livestock support may not lead to large water savings, but may instead redirect irrigation water to higher value crops. Conversely, removal of fodder subsidies and overall efficiency improvements in livestock can lead to overall water savings and net economic gains.Plain Language Summary: Turkey is a major exporter of food for the dry Middle East and North African region, while the goal of the Turkish government is to become more independent of imported livestock products. The government therefore pays different subsidies to encourage production within Turkey's inefficient livestock sector. As part of this strategy, a subsidy is paid to fodder crops that are irrigated with an increasing amount of water, although water resources in Turkey are already under stress. We therefore develop a new methodology that combines an economic model of the Turkish economy with a new water footprint calculation tool. With this method, we assess how different types of subsidies affect water use in Turkey through economic linkages and livestock‐related policies. Our model results show that removal of subsidies which are directly paid to livestock producers would not much reduce irrigation water use. However, the valuable irrigation water would increasingly be used to produce high value export crops such as vegetables, rather than low value fodder crops. Moreover, the abolishment of subsidies directly paid to fodder crop producers and technical measures that spur productivity in the livestock sector can achieve both, a reduction in irrigation water use and better economic outcomes.Key Points: Removal of direct Turkish livestock support may not lead to large water savings but redirects irrigation water to higher value crops. Removal of fodder subsidies shows the largest potential for water savings out of all scenarios. Improvements to overall economic efficiency in Turkey's livestock sector lead to net economic gains without major effects on blue water use.https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v9/default.asphttps://waterfootprint.org/en/resources/waterstat/product-water-footprint-statistics/https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2025-2021https://www.ifpri.org/publication/standard-computable-general-equilibrium-cge-model-gams-0https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.19486772.v

Policies for a sustainable biomass energy sector in Malawi: Enhancing energy and food security simultaneously

Biomass energy still dominates the energy sector in Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular as the main cooking energy source in rural and urban areas. The strong linkages to food security and the environment place biomass energy at the heart of sustainable development, a fact that is largely ignored by policy makers in favor of modern energy. At the same time, population and GDP growth are exacerbating already existing supply–demand imbalances in highly populated countries such as Malawi. These trends make it imperative to identify policy interventions that promote sustainable biomass energy while simultaneously considering linkages with other sectors. We use new data on demand and supply for biomass energy in Malawi and develop a model that estimates fuelwood demand based on actual diets and project demand in future years. We simulate how demand side interventions in the form of improved cookstoves affect biomass demand and built a behavioral model to analyze the potential of agroforestry for promoting a sustainable biomass energy sector in Malawi. Our findings show that policy measures aimed at increasing cooking efficiency are not enough to decrease demand for cooking energy due to high population growth. Supply side interventions like agroforestry on the other hand will not only increase sustainable supply, but can also enhance food security and protect the environment. We find that biomass energy can be inherently sustainable and should be an integral part of every energy sector strategy in developing countries as well as of the Sustainable Development Goals

Using Used Cooking Oil (UCO) for biofuel production: Effects on global land use and interlinkages with food and feed production.

The production of advanced biofuels aims at replacing food and feed crops with feedstocks without negative side effects on food prices and land use. Biodiesel from so-called used cooking oil (UCO) has reached a substantial market share particularly in the EU due to political support schemes. This paper quantifies the market effects of an increased use of UCO for biofuel production on agricultural and related markets by using the global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model DART-BIO which accounts for the interlinkages with food and feed production This paper describes in detail how to introduce UCO and the related biodiesel production (UCOME) into the GTAP 9 database and how to integrate the sectors into the disaggregated conventional biofuel production sectors in the DART-BIO model. We quantify and analyze the effects of an increased use of UCO for biofuel production on global food prices and land use by comparing scenarios of global biofuel production with and without UCO in the production portfolios. In addition, we test for the effect of the different mechanisms of the EU biofuel mandate such as the double-counting of advanced biofuels and the cap on conventional biofuels. Our main focus is the question whether the use of UCO indeed decreases the market effects of conventional biofuels and how the double-counting mechanism affects to use of UCOME and other transportation fuels. In addition, we evaluate the amount of UCO used for UCOME production in the different scenarios against limited collection rates of UCO inside and outside the EU

Using Used Cooking Oil (UCO) for biofuel production: Effects on global land use and interlinkages with food and feed production.

The production of advanced biofuels aims at replacing food and feed crops with feedstocks without negative side effects on food prices and land use. Biodiesel from so-called used cooking oil (UCO) has reached a substantial market share particularly in the EU due to political support schemes. This paper quantifies the market effects of an increased use of UCO for biofuel production on agricultural and related markets by using the global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model DART-BIO which accounts for the interlinkages with food and feed production This paper describes in detail how to introduce UCO and the related biodiesel production (UCOME) into the GTAP 9 database and how to integrate the sectors into the disaggregated conventional biofuel production sectors in the DART-BIO model. We quantify and analyze the effects of an increased use of UCO for biofuel production on global food prices and land use by comparing scenarios of global biofuel production with and without UCO in the production portfolios. In addition, we test for the effect of the different mechanisms of the EU biofuel mandate such as the double-counting of advanced biofuels and the cap on conventional biofuels. Our main focus is the question whether the use of UCO indeed decreases the market effects of conventional biofuels and how the double-counting mechanism affects to use of UCOME and other transportation fuels. In addition, we evaluate the amount of UCO used for UCOME production in the different scenarios against limited collection rates of UCO inside and outside the EU

Advanced vs conventional biofuels: Impacts of the latest reform of the European Union’s biofuel policy

Biofuel production has experienced strong growth over the last years. While global production increased sevenfold between 2000 and 2012 (IEA 2013), the growth slowed to relatively modest annual growth rates of 2% due to structural challenges and market uncertainties in key markets (IEA 2017). One of the key consumers of biofuels is the European Union. After promoting the use of biofuels with the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) which came into force in 2009, the EU recast the directive for the time period 2020-2030 (RED II). This new legislation limits the amount of biofuels and bioliquids produced from cereal and other starch-rich crops, sugars and oil crops counting towards the mandate and promotes the use of non-food crops for biofuel production. This paper quantifies the resulting impacts on global land use and agricultural markets. We use an updated version of the DART-BIO model, a global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model. The model is based on the GTAP9 database (Aguiar et al. 2016). Following Calzadilla et al. (2016), the model includes bioethanol production from sugar cane/beet, wheat, maize and other grains; and biodiesel production from palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil and other oilseed oils. DART-BIO explicitly accounts for the by-products generated during the production process of different vegetable oils and biofuels. Dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) are by-products of the production of bioethanol from grains and oilseed meals/cakes are by-products of different vegetable oil industries. To test the sensitivity of our results we test different assumptions on 1) elasticity of substitutions between feedstock used in the livestock sector, 2) availability of used cooking oil and straw, 3) different assumptions on crops with a high share of expansion into high-carbon stock by source country. In the result section we discuss implications for production, trade flows, and prices of agricultural goods and biofuel products