Testing The Limits: A Robustness Analysis Of Logistic Growth Models For Life Cycle Estimation During The COVID-19 Pandemic

The semiconductor industry operates in a dynamic environment characterized by rapid technological advancements, extensive research and development investments, long planning horizons, and cyclical market behavior. Consequently, staying vigilant to technological disruptions and shifting trends is crucial. This is especially challenging when external shocks seriously affect supply chain processes and demand patterns. Particularly, recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, and high consumer price inflation impacting the semiconductor cycle emphasize the need to account for these influences. In this context, we analyze growth patterns and life cycles of various technologies within the semiconductor industry by estimating logistic growth models. The logistic growth model was originally formulated to describe population dynamics. However, many processes outside the discipline of ecology share the fundamental characteristics of natural growth: self-proportionality and a self-regulating mechanism. Out of the different applications, two are of particular interest in the context of strategic business decisions: (1) modeling innovation diffusion and technological change to predict the mid- to long-term growth of a market, and (2) modeling of product life cycles. To obtain market growth and life cycle predictions, we apply the logistic growth model to forecast cumulative revenues by technology over time. This model treats the analyzed technology as a closed system. However, in practice, external shocks are the norm. To analyze the robustness to such external shocks, we compare technology life cycle estimates derived from logistic growth models before and after the effects of COVID-19 became evident for a wide array of semiconductor technologies. We find that the impact of COVID-19 on these life cycle estimates is mixed, but the median change is low. Our findings have implications for the application of logistic growth models in strategic decision-making, helping stakeholders navigate the complexities of technological innovation, diffusion, and market growth

Chlorogenic acid versus amaranth's caffeoylisocitric acid – Gut microbial degradation of caffeic acid derivatives

PL, FF, and SHD receive financial support from the ScottisMoh Government Rural and Environmental Sciences and Analytical Services (RESAS). Parts of this work were financially supported by the project “Horticultural Innovation and Learning for Improved Nutrition and Livelihood in East Africa” (FZK 031A248J and FKZ 031A248K), funded within the global food security (GlobE) initiative of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development.Peer reviewedPostprin

Dilatancy transition in a granular model

We introduce a model of granular matter and use a stress ensemble to analyze shearing. Monte Carlo simulation shows the model to exhibit a second order phase transition, associated with the onset of dilatancy.Comment: Future versions can be obtained from: http://www.ma.utexas.edu/users/radin/papers/shear2.pd

Integrating ecosystem services and disservices: insights from plant invasions

There is growing interest in ecosystem disservices, i.e. the negative effects of ecosystems on humans. The focus on disservices has been controversial because of the lack of clarity on how to disentangle ecosystem services and disservices related to human wellbeing. A perspective that considers both services and disservices is needed to inform objective decision-making. We propose a comprehensive typology of ecosystem disservices, and present a framework for integrating ecosystem services and disservices for human wellbeing linked to ecosystem functioning. Our treatment is underpinned by three key assumptions: (1) ecosystem attributes and functions are value-free; (2) the perception of benefits or nuisances are however dependent on societal context, and preferences and actions by societal actors may trigger, enhance or alleviate benefits or nuisances derived from ecosystems; and (3) the notion of disservices must account for the role of human management in assessments of ecosystem values, i.e. the social and technological measures that identify, protect, promote or restore desirable levels of services, and concurrently minimise, mitigate or adapt to disservices. We illustrate our ideas with examples from plant invasions as a complex social-ecological phenomenon

Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years. The papers cover all the topics contemplated in the European Geo-sciences Union (EGU) Division on Natural Hazards including dissemination, education, outreach and teaching. The selected articles thus represent excellent scientific contributions in the major areas of natural hazards and risks and helped NHESS to become an exceptionally strong journal representing interdisciplinary areas of natural hazards and risks. At its 20th anniversary, we are proud that NHESS is not only used by scientists to disseminate research results and novel ideas but also by practitioners and decision-makers to present effective solutions and strategies for sustainable disaster risk reduction

Brief communication: Key papers of 20 years in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years. The papers cover all the topics contemplated in the European Geo-sciences Union (EGU) Division on Natural Hazards including dissemination, education, outreach and teaching. The selected articles thus represent excellent scientific contributions in the major areas of natural hazards and risks and helped NHESS to become an exceptionally strong journal representing interdisciplinary areas of natural hazards and risks. At its 20th anniversary, we are proud that NHESS is not only used by scientists to disseminate research results and novel ideas but also by practitioners and decision-makers to present effective solutions and strategies for sustainable disaster risk reduction

Refractive-index sensing with ultra-thin plasmonic nanotubes

We study the refractive-index sensing properties of plasmonic nanotubes with a dielectric core and ultra-thin metal shell. The few-nm thin metal shell is described by both the usual Drude model and the nonlocal hydrodynamic model to investigate the effects of nonlocality. We derive an analytical expression for the extinction cross section and show how sensing of the refractive index of the surrounding medium and the figure-of-merit are affected by the shape and size of the nanotubes. Comparison with other localized surface plasmon resonance sensors reveals that the nanotube exhibits superior sensitivity and comparable figure-of-merit

Mutations in Mll2, an H3K4 methyltransferase, result in insulin resistance and impaired glucose tolerance in mice.

We employed a random mutagenesis approach to identify novel monogenic determinants of type 2 diabetes. Here we show that haplo-insufficiency of the histone methyltransferase myeloid-lineage leukemia (Mll2/Wbp7) gene causes type 2 diabetes in the mouse. We have shown that mice heterozygous for two separate mutations in the SET domain of Mll2 or heterozygous Mll2 knockout mice were hyperglycaemic, hyperinsulinaemic and developed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Consistent with previous Mll2 knockout studies, mice homozygous for either ENU mutation (or compound heterozygotes) died during embryonic development at 9.5-14.5 days post coitum. Heterozygous deletion of Mll2 induced in the adult mouse results in a normal phenotype suggesting that changes in chromatin methylation during development result in the adult phenotype. Mll2 has been shown to regulate a small subset of genes, a number of which Neurod1, Enpp1, Slc27a2, and Plcxd1 are downregulated in adult mutant mice. Our results demonstrate that histone H3K4 methyltransferase Mll2 is a component of the genetic regulation necessary for glucose homeostasis, resulting in a specific disease pattern linking chromatin modification with causes and progression of type 2 diabetes, providing a basis for its further understanding at the molecular level