Regional but not global temperature variability underestimated by climate models at supradecadal timescales

Knowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of plausible future climate trajectories in the next decades to centuries. The reliable detection of climate fluctuations on multidecadal to centennial timescales depends on proxy reconstructions and model simulations, as the instrumental record extends back only a few decades in most parts of the world. Systematic comparisons between model-simulated and proxy-based inferences of natural variability, however, often seem contradictory. Locally, simulated temperature variability is consistently smaller on multidecadal and longer timescales than is indicated by proxy-based reconstructions, implying that climate models or proxy interpretations might have deficiencies. In contrast, at global scales, studies found agreement between simulated and proxy reconstructed temperature variations. Here we review the evidence regarding the scale of natural temperature variability during recent millennia. We identify systematic reconstruction deficiencies that may contribute to differing local and global model–proxy agreement but conclude that they are probably insufficient to resolve such discrepancies. Instead, we argue that regional climate variations persisted for longer timescales than climate models simulating past climate states are able to reproduce. This would imply an underestimation of the regional variability on multidecadal and longer timescales and would bias climate projections and attribution studies. Thus, efforts are needed to improve the simulation of natural variability in climate models accompanied by further refining proxy-based inferences of variability.This study was undertaken by members of CVAS and 2k Network, working groups of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Global Research association. This is a contribution to the SPACE ERC, STACY and PALMOD projects. The SPACE ERC project has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 716092). STACY has been funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation, project no. 395588486). This work has also been supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), through the PalMod project (subprojects 01LP1926B (O.B.), 01LP1926D (M.C.) and 01LP1926C (B.E., P.S. and N.W.)) from the Research for Sustainability initiative (FONA). B.E. is supported by the Heinrich Böll Foundation. E.M.-C. was supported by the PARAMOUR project, funded by the Fonds de la Recherche Scientifique–FNRS and the FWO under the Excellence of Science (EOS) programme (grant no. O0100718F, EOS ID no. 30454083). A.H. was supported by a Legacy Grant from the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and Heritage. B.M. was supported by LINKA20102 and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation project CEX2018‐000794‐S. The work originated from discussions at the CVAS working group of PAGES at a workshop at the Internationales Wissenschaftsforum Heidelberg, which was funded by a Hengstberger Prize. We thank N. Beech, C. Brierley, F. Gonzalez-Rouco and M. MacPartland for comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript. This manuscript uses data provided by the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP and PMIP. We thank the research groups for producing and kindly making their model outputs, measurements and palaeoclimate reconstructions available to us. Editorial assistance, in the form of language editing and correction, was provided by XpertScientific Editing and Consulting Services. We acknowledge support by the Open Access Publication Funds of Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

RAN-Vic : renal access nurses of Victoria unite.

The Renal Access Nurse has recently become an integral member of the renal health care team in Australia. Research has shown that the introduction of a Renal Access Nurse into dialysis units enhances the referral process for new access, improves survival rates, and success of access creation. Australia has been relatively slow in the introduction of the role of the Renal Access Nurse. The USA, UK and Europe have been utilising Renal Access Nurses in renal units for many years and their roles are firmly entrenched.The first Renal Access Nurse was introduced in Victoria in 2003, increasing to 7 in 2007. It was evident in 2006 that a networking system for Renal Access Nurses was needed in Victoria, so RAN-Vic was born.RAN-Vic consists of 6 Renal Access Nurses from the major hubs in Melbourne and Geelong, thus covering a large part of the Victorian dialysis community through satellite units throughout the state. The group meet quarterly, with the main goals being to network, share ideas, support each other with challenges arising from the new role, benchmark, undertake quality initiatives and education of renal nursing staff. By doing this, we hope to improve outcomes for patients, improve work practices pertaining to renal access, and further redefine the new role.RAN-Vic is the first of its kind in Australia, providing care for renal access for the dialysis population throughout Victoria. We recommend for all states in Australia to consider forming a Renal Access Group to help improve renal access outcomes.<br /

Measurement of polarisation observables in Ks0Σ+K^0_s\Sigma^+ photoproduction off the proton

The reaction $\gamma \, p \rightarrow K^0_S\,\Sigma^+$ is studied in the photon energy range from threshold. Linearly polarised photon beams from coherent bremsstrahlung enabled the first measurement of photon beam asymmetries in this reaction up to $E_\gamma = 2250$ MeV. In addition, the recoil hyperon polarisation was determined through the asymmetry in the weak decay $\Sigma^+ \rightarrow p \pi^0$ up to $E_\gamma = 1650$ MeV. The data are compared to partial wave analyses, and the possible impact on the interpretation of a recently observed cusp-like structure near the $K^*$ thresholds is discussed.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figures. References [8,9,10,11] which were not on the original submission are now include

A tale worth telling: the impact of the diagnosis experience on disclosure of genetic disorders: Impact of the diagnosis experience on disclosure

Research suggests children with genetic disorders exhibit greater coping skills when they are aware of their condition and its heritability. While the experiences parents have at diagnosis may influence their decision to disclose the diagnosis to their children, there is little research into this communication. The aim of the current study was to examine the relationship between the diagnosis experience and the disclosure experience for parents of children with intellectual disabilities; with a child affected by 22q11.2 deletion syndrome (22q11DS) compared to a group of parents with children affected with other genetic diagnoses, with a similar age of diagnosis (e.g., Fragile X syndrome) and a group where diagnosis generally occurs early (i.e., Down syndrome)

Transkingdom Networks: A Systems Biology Approach to Identify Causal Members of Host-Microbiota Interactions

Improvements in sequencing technologies and reduced experimental costs have resulted in a vast number of studies generating high-throughput data. Although the number of methods to analyze these "omics" data has also increased, computational complexity and lack of documentation hinder researchers from analyzing their high-throughput data to its true potential. In this chapter we detail our data-driven, transkingdom network (TransNet) analysis protocol to integrate and interrogate multi-omics data. This systems biology approach has allowed us to successfully identify important causal relationships between different taxonomic kingdoms (e.g. mammals and microbes) using diverse types of data

Electroosmotic flow reversal outside glass nanopores.

We report observations of a striking reversal in the direction of electroosmotic flow (EOF) outside a conical glass nanopore as a function of salt concentration. At high ionic strengths (>100 mM), we observe EOF in the expected direction as predicted by classical electrokinetic theory, while at low salt concentrations (<1 mM) the direction of the flow is reversed. The critical crossover salt concentration depends on the pore diameter. Finite-element simulations indicate a competition between the EOF generated from the inner and outer walls of the pore, which drives flows in opposite directions. We have developed a simple analytical model which reveals that, as the salt concentration is reduced, the flow rates inside the pore are geometrically constrained, whereas there is no such limit for flows outside the pore. This model captures all of the essential physics of the system and explains the observed data, highlighting the key role the external environment plays in determining the overall electroosmotic behavior

Measurement of the Beam Asymmetry Σ\Sigma in the Forward Direction for pi0 Photoproduction

Photoproduction of neutral pions has been studied with the CBELSA/TAPS detector for photon energies between 0.92 and 1.68~GeV at the electron accelerator ELSA. The beam asymmetry~$\Sigma$ has been extracted for $115^\circ < \theta_{\rm c.m.} < 155^\circ$ of the $\pi^0$~meson and for $\theta_{\rm c.m.} < 60^\circ$. The new beam asymmetry data improve the world database for photon energies above 1.5~GeV and, by covering the very forward region, extend previously published data for the same reaction by our collaboration. The angular dependence of $\Sigma$ shows overall good agreement with the SAID parameterization.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, published in Phys. Rev. C, included LEPS data and MAID 2007 predictions for comparison with our dat

Photoproduction of Neutral Pions off Protons

Photoproduction of neutral pions has been studied with the CBELSA/TAPS detector in the reaction $\gamma p\to p\pi^0$ for photon energies between 0.85 and 2.50 GeV. The $\pi^0$ mesons are observed in their dominant neutral decay mode: $\pi^0\to\gamma\gamma$. For the first time, the differential cross sections cover the very forward region, $\theta_{\rm c.m.}<60^\circ$. A partial-wave analysis of these data within the Bonn-Gatchina framework observes the high-mass resonances $G_{17}$(2190), $D_{13}$(2080), and $D_{15}$(2070).Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, minor modifications to PWA sectio

Photoproduction of meson pairs: First measurement of the polarization observable I^s

The polarization observable I^s, a feature exclusive to the acoplanar kinematics of multi-meson final states produced via linearly polarized photons, has been measured for the first time. Results for the reaction g p -> p pi0 eta are presented for incoming photon energies between 970 MeV and 1650 MeV along with the beam asymmetry I^c. The comparably large asymmetries demonstrate a high sensitivity of I^s to the dynamics of the reaction. Fits using Bonn-Gatchina partial wave analysis demonstrate that the new polarization observables carry significant information on the contributing partial waves.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, v2 to appear in Phys. Lett.

Photoproduction of pi0 omega off protons for E(gamma) < 3 GeV

Differential and total cross-sections for photoproduction of gamma proton to proton pi0 omega and gamma proton to Delta+ omega were determined from measurements of the CB-ELSA experiment, performed at the electron accelerator ELSA in Bonn. The measurements covered the photon energy range from the production threshold up to 3GeV.Comment: 8 pages, 13 figure