The development and application of aerodynamic uncertainties: And flight test verification for the space shuttle orbiter

The approach used in establishing the predicted aerodynamic uncertainties and the process used in applying these uncertainties during the design of the Orbiter flight control system and the entry trajectories are presented. The flight test program that was designed to verify the stability and control derivatives with a minimum of test flights is presented and a comparison of preflight predictions with preliminary flight test results is made. It is concluded that the approach used for the Orbiter is applicable to future programs where testing is limited due to time constraints or funding

A Parameter Model of Gas Exchange for the Seasonal Sea Ice Zone

Carbon budgets for the polar oceans require better constraint on air–sea gas exchange in the sea ice zone (SIZ). Here, we utilize advances in the theory of turbulence, mixing and air–sea flux in the ice–ocean boundary layer (IOBL) to formulate a simple model for gas exchange when the surface ocean is partially covered by sea ice. The gas transfer velocity (k) is related to shear-driven and convection-driven turbulence in the aqueous mass boundary layer, and to the mean-squared wave slope at the air–sea interface. We use the model to estimate k along the drift track of ice-tethered profilers (ITPs) in the Arctic. Individual estimates of daily-averaged k from ITP drifts ranged between 1.1 and 22 m d−1, and the fraction of open water (f) ranged from 0 to 0.83. Converted to area-weighted effective transfer velocities (keff), the minimum value of keff was 10−55 m d−1 near f = 0 with values exceeding keff = 5 m d−1 at f = 0.4. The model indicates that effects from shear and convection in the sea ice zone contribute an additional 40% to the magnitude of keff, beyond what would be predicted from an estimate of keff based solely upon a wind speed parameterization. Although the ultimate scaling relationship for gas exchange in the sea ice zone will require validation in laboratory and field studies, the basic parameter model described here demonstrates that it is feasible to formulate estimates of k based upon properties of the IOBL using data sources that presently exist

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

The effect of intermittent shedding on prevalence estimation in populations

When studying the epidemiology of an infectious agent such as Salmonella, it is often necessary to estimate infection prevalence. The researcher must measure the amount of infection in those animals, pens, or herds that do or do not have a given exposure experience, e.g. all-in all-out versus continuous ·now. Accurate measurement, or statistical estimation, of the prevalence is important to calculate the relative risk of a management factor. An inaccurate prevalence estimate can be acceptable if it is nondifferential, and if both exposed and nonexposed populations have the same amount of error, unbiased (l ). If the measurement error is unbiased, the study may be weakened but not invalidated. However, if there is differential misclassification among the exposed and non exposed, or if there is a tendency to over or underestimate the prevalence, inappropriate conclusions could be reached

Tracer Applications of Noble Gas Radionuclides in the Geosciences

The noble gas radionuclides, including 81Kr (half-life = 229,000 yr), 85Kr (11 yr), and 39Ar (269 yr), possess nearly ideal chemical and physical properties for studies of earth and environmental processes. Recent advances in Atom Trap Trace Analysis (ATTA), a laser-based atom counting method, have enabled routine measurements of the radiokrypton isotopes, as well as the demonstration of the ability to measure 39Ar in environmental samples. Here we provide an overview of the ATTA technique, and a survey of recent progress made in several laboratories worldwide. We review the application of noble gas radionuclides in the geosciences and discuss how ATTA can help advance these fields, specifically determination of groundwater residence times using 81Kr, 85Kr, and 39Ar; dating old glacial ice using 81Kr; and an 39Ar survey of the main water masses of the oceans, to study circulation pathways and estimate mean residence times. Other scientific questions involving deeper circulation of fluids in the Earth's crust and mantle also are within the scope of future applications. We conclude that the geoscience community would greatly benefit from an ATTA facility dedicated to this field, with instrumentation for routine measurements, as well as for research on further development of ATTA methods

The Gas Transfer through Polar Sea Ice Experiment: Insights into the Rates and Pathways that Determine Geochemical Fluxes

Sea ice is a defining feature of the polar marine environment. It is a critical domain for marine biota and it regulates ocean-atmosphere exchange, including the exchange of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4. In this study, we determined the rates and pathways that govern gas transport through a mixed sea ice cover. N2O, SF6, 3He, 4He, and Ne were used as gas tracers of the exchange processes that take place at the ice-water and air-water interfaces in a laboratory sea ice experiment. Observation of the changes in gas concentrations during freezing revealed that He is indeed more soluble in ice than in water; Ne is less soluble in ice, and the larger gases (N2O and SF6) are mostly excluded during the freezing process. Model estimates of gas diffusion through ice were calibrated using measurements of bulk gas content in ice cores, yielding gas transfer velocity through ice (kice) of ∼5 × 10−4 m d−1. In comparison, the effective air-sea gas transfer velocities (keff) ranged up to 0.33 m d−1 providing further evidence that very little mixed-layer ventilation takes place via gas diffusion through columnar sea ice. However, this ventilation is distinct from air-ice gas fluxes driven by sea ice biogeochemistry. The magnitude of keff showed a clear increasing trend with wind speed and current velocity beneath the ice, as well as the combination of the two. This result indicates that gas transfer cannot be uniquely predicted by wind speed alone in the presence of sea ice

Spatial Light Modulators for the Manipulation of Individual Atoms

We propose a novel dipole trapping scheme using spatial light modulators (SLM) for the manipulation of individual atoms. The scheme uses a high numerical aperture microscope to map the intensity distribution of a SLM onto a cloud of cold atoms. The regions of high intensity act as optical dipole force traps. With a SLM fast enough to modify the trapping potential in real time, this technique is well suited for the controlled addressing and manipulation of arbitrarily selected atoms.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Summation and transformation formulas for elliptic hypergeometric series

Using matrix inversion and determinant evaluation techniques we prove several summation and transformation formulas for terminating, balanced, very-well-poised, elliptic hypergeometric series.Comment: 21 pages, AMS-LaTe

Population characteristics of Shovelnose Sturgeon during low- and high-water conditions in the lower Platte River, Nebraska

Cycles of low- and high-water periods (i.e., years) in river systems are natural occurrences, but understanding how cyclical climatological patterns affect fishes, especially long-lived species, is unclear. We assessed Shovelnose Sturgeon population dynamics between a period of low- (2001-2004) and high- (2009-2012) water years in the lower Platte River, Nebraska. Low-flow periods in the lower Platte River can cause disconnection(s) between upstream and downstream reaches resulting in isolated pools and elevated water temperatures leading to stressful situations for aquatic life and possible mortality. Our data show no measurable differences between key population indices between flow condition periods which is consistent with current paradigms for long-lived fish species. Shovelnose Sturgeon relative weights were generally \u3e 80 during both low- and high-water periods and the size structure did not differ between the two periods. Shovelnose Sturgeon abundances, however, were greater during high-water conditions compared to low-water conditions (Kruskal-Wallis: χ2 = 6.15, d.f. = 1, P = 0.01). Shovelnose Sturgeon may have migrated to more suitable habitats during low-water periods to seek refuge allowing these individuals to return during more suitable conditions. Shovelnose Sturgeon and other riverine fish have evolved in a variable environment and have been able to endure relatively minor anthropogenic changes within the lower Platte River. Rivers like the lower Platte River that have retained much of their original physical features and flow regimes are likely key components for the resistance and resilience of riverine species. However, as alterations to landscapes continue and uncertainty exists surrounding future climate predictions, it is unknown how these riverine species will be able to adapt to future changes. The reduction in anthropogenic changes that disrupt flow regimes and increasing connectivity among river systems could provide more fish refuge during stressful conditions helping to protect these riverine species

A Nanofiber-Based Optical Conveyor Belt for Cold Atoms

We demonstrate optical transport of cold cesium atoms over millimeter-scale distances along an optical nanofiber. The atoms are trapped in a one-dimensional optical lattice formed by a two-color evanescent field surrounding the nanofiber, far red- and blue-detuned with respect to the atomic transition. The blue-detuned field is a propagating nanofiber-guided mode while the red-detuned field is a standing-wave mode which leads to the periodic axial confinement of the atoms. Here, this standing wave is used for transporting the atoms along the nanofiber by mutually detuning the two counter-propagating fields which form the standing wave. The performance and limitations of the nanofiber-based transport are evaluated and possible applications are discussed