Adaptation of mediterranean agriculture to climate change: evaluation of some uncertainties

Ponencia presentada en: VII Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología: clima, ciudad y ecosistemas, celebrado en Madrid entre el 24 y 26 de noviembre de 2010.[ES]El cambio climático resulta en variaciones regionales de los riesgos y oportunidades para la mayoría de los agricultores del Mediterráneo en las próximas décadas. La identificación de políticas y acciones adaptación, políticas y acciones por parte de los agricultores, es difícil puesteo que es difícil comprender la incertidumbre asociada a los impactos en distintas zonas y en distintos cultivos. En este estudio evaluamos algunos aspectos relacionados con esta incertidumbre en la agricultura mediterránea. El resultado final es una evaluación del nivel de riesgo que tienen distintos cultivos en distintas zonas para apoyar la toma de decisiones relacionadas con la adaptación.[EN]Climate change inevitably results in large regional variations of risks and opportunities and will be felt by most farmers in the Mediterranean in the next decades. The interpretation of results to determine appropriate policy response is troubled with difficulties, such as understanding the local uncertainty and the interpretation of specific crop responses. Here we provide an analysis of the impact of climate and likelihood for Mediterranean agriculture. We generate multiple projections of impacts based on different models of climate change and crop response in order to capture uncertainties

Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity to develop an interdisciplinary approach for prioritising policies. It proposes a method for identifying relevant policies for different EU countries that are representative of various agroclimatic zones. Our analysis presents a framework for integrating current knowledge of future climate impacts with an understanding of the underlying socio-economic, agricultural and environmental traits that determine a region’s capacity for adapting to climate change

Impactos y capacidad de adaptación como factores determinantes para priorizar la adaptación agrícola al cambio climático en Europa

[EN] In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity to develop an interdisciplinary approach for prioritising policies. It proposes a method for identifying relevant policies for different EU countries that are representative of various agroclimatic zones. Our analysis presents a framework for integrating current knowledge of future climate impacts with an understanding of the underlying socio-economic, agricultural and environmental traits that determine a region’s capacity for adapting to climate change.[ES] A la hora de afrontar los potenciales impactos del cambio climático, las administraciones encargadas de la toma de decisiones a cualquier escala territorial deben disponer de herramientas de evaluación que permitan el diseño de políticas relevantes. Los últimos avances científicos han permitido el desarrollo de mejores proyecciones climáticas, pero aún está por ver si éstas se acaban traduciendo en estrategias de adaptación efectivas. En el presente trabajo se utilizan bases de datos existentes sobre impactos climáticos en la agricultura europea y se combinan con una evaluación de la capacidad de adaptación para desarrollar un enfoque interdisciplinar para la priorización de políticas. Asimismo, se propone una metodología para la identificación de políticas relevantes para diferentes países de la Unión Europea representativos de distintas zonas agroclimáticas. Nuestro análisis presenta un marco que permite hacer uso de los conocimientos actuales acerca de los futuros impactos del cambio climático teniendo en consideración los factores socio-económicos, agrícolas, y medioambientales subyacentes que determinan la capacidad de una región de adaptarse al cambio climático.Los autores agradecen los comentarios de los revisores anónimos. Este trabajo ha sido financiado parcialmente por CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment; FP6 Commission of the European Union - Contract No 036961 - http://www.circeproject.eu) y ARCO (Estudio Integrado Sobre la Agricultura, Recursos Hídricos y Costas; Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino, España).Schlickenrieder, J.; Quiroga, S.; Diz, A.; Iglesias, A. (2011). Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritising agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. 59-82. https://doi.org/10.7201/earn.2011.01.03SWORD598

Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region inview of climate change

Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water that is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems. Based on these projections this paper discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarise the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognising the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritise socially and economically sensitive policie

Towards a real-time susceptibility assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides on a regional scale

Abstract. In the framework of landslide risk management, it appears relevant to assess, both in space and in time, the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, in order to prevent damages due to these kind of disasters. In this context, the use of real-time landslide early warning systems has been attracting more and more attention from the scientific community. This paper deals with the application, on a regional scale, of two physically-based stability models: SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction) and TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope-stability analysis). A back analysis of some recent case-histories of soil slips which occurred in the territory of the central Emilian Apennine, Emilia Romagna Region (Northern Italy) is carried out and the main results are shown. The study area is described from geological and climatic viewpoints. The acquisition of geospatial information regarding the topography, the soil properties and the local landslide inventory is also explained. The paper outlines the main features of the SLIP model and the basic assumptions of TRIGRS. Particular attention is devoted to the discussion of the input data, which have been stored and managed through a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform. Results of the SLIP model on a regional scale, over a one year time interval, are finally presented. The results predicted by the SLIP model are analysed both in terms of safety factor (Fs) maps, corresponding to particular rainfall events, and in terms of time-varying percentage of unstable areas over the considered time interval. The paper compares observed landslide localizations with those predicted by the SLIP model. A further quantitative comparison between SLIP and TRIGRS, both applied to the most important event occurred during the analysed period, is presented. The limits of the SLIP model, mainly due to some restrictions of simplifying the physically based relationships, are analysed in detail. Although an improvement, in terms of spatial accuracy, is needed, thanks to the fast calculation and the satisfactory temporal prediction of landslides, the SLIP model applied on the study area shows certain potential as a landslides forecasting tool on a regional scale

Climate change and agricultural adaptation: assessing management uncertainty for four crop types in Spain

Climate change inevitably leads to large regional variations in risks and opportunities and is likely to affect most farmers in the Mediterranean in the next decades. The interpretation of climate projections to determine appropriate policy responses is not without difficulties, such as understanding local uncertainty and responses of specific crops to sets of conditions. Here we analyse the potential impacts of climate on agriculture in the Mediterranean — a region that exemplifies other regions of the world that are prone to drought and are likely to experience increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the future. Our analysis relies on understanding the sources of uncertainty derived from climate scenarios, agricultural systems, impact responses and risk levels to support informed decisions for planned agricultural adaptation. We generated multiple projections of impacts based on different models of climate change and crop response in order to capture uncertainties. We used statistical models of yield response and projections of climate change generated from 16 climate scenarios to address the likelihood of projected impacts on traditional Mediterranean farming systems, represented in this study by cereals, grapes, olives and citrus. Results show that uncertainty varies widely by crop and location, and adaptation priorities will therefore depend on the risk focus of adaptation plan

Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity to develop an interdisciplinary approach for prioritising policies. It proposes a method for identifying relevant policies for different EU countries that are representative of various agroclimatic zones. Our analysis presents a framework for integrating current knowledge of future climate impacts with an understanding of the underlying socio-economic, agricultural and environmental traits that determine a region’s capacity for adapting to climate change

Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity to develop an interdisciplinary approach for prioritising policies. It proposes a method for identifying relevant policies for different EU countries that are representative of various agroclimatic zones. Our analysis presents a framework for integrating current knowledge of future climate impacts with an understanding of the underlying socio-economic, agricultural and environmental traits that determine a region’s capacity for adapting to climate change.Adaptation, adaptive capacity, agriculture, climate change, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q18, Q54,