A Gaussian Model for the Time Development of the Sars-Cov-2 Corona Pandemic Disease. Predictions for Germany Made on 30 March 2020

For Germany, it is predicted that the first wave of the corona pandemic disease reaches its maximum of new infections on 11 April 2020 −3.4+5.4 days with 90% confidence. With a delay of about 7 days the maximum demand on breathing machines in hospitals occurs on 18 April 2020 −3.4+5.4 days. The first pandemic wave ends in Germany end of May 2020. The predictions are based on the assumption of a Gaussian time evolution well justified by the central limit theorem of statistics. The width and the maximum time and thus the duration of this Gaussian distribution are determined from a statistical χ2 -fit to the observed doubling times before 28 March 2020

Cosmic-ray pitch-angle scattering in imbalanced mhd turbulence simulations

Pitch-angle scattering rates for cosmic-ray particles in magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations with imbalanced turbulence are calculated for fully evolving electromagnetic turbulence. We compare with theoretical predictions derived from the quasilinear theory of cosmic-ray diffusion for an idealized slab spectrum and demonstrate how cross helicity affects the shape of the pitch-angle diffusion coefficient. Additional simulations in evolving magnetic fields or static field configurations provide evidence that the scattering anisotropy in imbalanced turbulence is not primarily due to coherence with propagating Alfven waves, but an effect of the spatial structure of electric fields in cross-helical MHD turbulence.Comment: 13 pages, 15 figures. Accepted by Ap

Internal gamma gamma-opacity in Active Galactic Nuclei and the consequences for the TeV observations of M87 and Cen A

Low Luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (LLAGNs) possess the characteristic features of more luminous Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) but exhibit a much lower nuclear Halpha luminosity than their more luminous counterparts. M87 (NGC 4486) and Centaurus A (NGC 5128, CenA) are well-studied nearby LLAGNs. As an additional feature they show gamma-radiation up to TeV (10^{12}eV) energies, but the origin of this radiation is not resolved. The coincident observation of a radio and TeV flare in M87 suggests that the TeV radiation is produced within around 50-100 gravitational radii of the central supermassive black hole, depending on the assumed value of the mass of the black hole. Strong radiation fields can be produced in the central region of an (LL)AGN, e.g., by the accretion flow around the black hole, the jet plasma, or stars closely orbiting the black hole. These radiation fields can lead to the absorption of emitted TeV photons, and in fact high optical depths of such fields can make TeV detection from inner regions impossible. In this paper we consider the accretion flow around the black hole as the most prominent source for such a radiation field and we accordingly calculate the probability for absorption of TeV photons produced near the black holes in M87 and CenA assuming a low luminosity Shakura-Sunyaev Disk (SSD). We find that the results are very different for between the two LLAGNs. While the inner region of M87 is transparent for TeV radiation up to 15TeV, the optical depth in CenA is >> 1, leading to an absorption of TeV photons that might be produced near the central black hole. These results imply either that the TeV gamma production sites and processes are different for both sources, or that LLAGN black holes do not accrete (at least only) in form of a low luminosity SSD.Comment: accepted for publication in Ap

Multi-scale modeling of the thermal control of magnetic nanostructures

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Covid-19 Predictions Using a Gauss Model, Based on Data from April 2

We study a Gauss model (GM), a map from time to the bell-shaped Gaussian function to model the deaths per day and country, as a simple, analytically tractable model to make predictions on the coronavirus epidemic. Justified by the sigmoidal nature of a pandemic, i.e., initial exponential spread to eventual saturation, and an agent-based model, we apply the GM to existing data, as of 2 April 2020, from 25 countries during first corona pandemic wave and study the model’s predictions. We find that logarithmic daily fatalities caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) are well described by a quadratic function in time. By fitting the data to second order polynomials from a statistical χ2 -fit with 95% confidence, we are able to obtain the characteristic parameters of the GM, i.e., a width, peak height, and time of peak, for each country separately, with which we extrapolate to future times to make predictions. We provide evidence that this supposedly oversimplifying model might still have predictive power and use it to forecast the further course of the fatalities caused by Covid-19 per country, including peak number of deaths per day, date of peak, and duration within most deaths occur. While our main goal is to present the general idea of the simple modeling process using GMs, we also describe possible estimates for the number of required respiratory machines and the duration left until the number of infected will be significantly reducedISSN:1943-287

Role of Entropy in Domain Wall Motion in Thermal Gradients

Thermally driven domain wall (DW) motion caused solely by magnonic spin currents was forecast theoretically and has been measured recently in a magnetic insulator using magneto-optical Kerr effect microscopy. We present an analytical calculation of the DW velocity as well as the Walker breakdown within the framework of the Landau Lifshitz Bloch equation of motion. The temperature gradient leads to a torque term acting on the magnetization where the DW is mainly driven by the temperature dependence of the exchange stiffness, or—in a more general picture—by the maximization of entropy. The existence of this entropic torque term does not rest on the angular momentum transfer from the magnonic spin current. Hence, even DWs in antiferromagnets or compensated ferrimagnets should move accordingly. We further argue that the entropic torque exceeds that of the magnonic spin current

Temperature dependence of the frequencies and effective damping parameters of ferrimagnetic resonance

Recent experiments on all-optical switching in GdFeCo and CoGd have raised the question about the importance of the angular momentum or the magnetization compensation point for ultrafast magnetization dynamics. We investigate the dynamics of ferrimagnets by means of computer simulations as well as analytically. The results from atomistic modeling are explained by a theory based on the two-sublattice Landau-Lifshitz-Bloch equation. Similarly to the experimental results and unlike predictions based on the macroscopic Landau-Lifshitz equation, we find an increase in the effective damping at temperatures approaching the Curie temperature. Further results for the temperature dependence of the frequencies and effective damping parameters of the normal modes represent an improvement of former approximated solutions, building a better basis for comparison to recent experiments