269 research outputs found

    A note on Youden's J and its cost ratio

    Get PDF
    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Youden index, the sum of sensitivity and specificity minus one, is an index used for setting optimal thresholds on medical tests.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>When using this index, one implicitly uses decision theory with a ratio of misclassification costs which is equal to one minus the prevalence proportion of the disease. It is doubtful whether this cost ratio truly represents the decision maker's preferences. Moreover, in populations with a different prevalence, a selected threshold is optimal with reference to a different cost ratio.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>The Youden index is not a truly optimal decision rule for setting thresholds because its cost ratio varies with prevalence. Researchers should look into their cost ratio and employ it in a decision theoretic framework to obtain genuinely optimal thresholds.</p

    Telomere shortening occurs in Asian Indian Type 2 diabetic patients

    Get PDF
    Aim: Telomere shortening has been reported in several diseases including atherosclerosis and Type 1 diabetes. Asian Indians have an increased predilection for Type 2 diabetes and premature coronary artery disease. The aim of this study was to determine whether telomeric shortening occurs in Asian Indian Type 2 diabetic patients. Methods: Using Southern‐blot analysis we determined mean terminal restriction fragment (TRF) length, a measure of average telomere size, in leucocyte DNA. Type 2 diabetic patients without any diabetes‐related complications (n = 40) and age‐ and sex‐matched control non‐diabetic subjects (n = 40) were selected from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES). Plasma level of malondialdehyde (MDA), a marker of lipid peroxidation, was measured by TBARS (thiobarbituric acid reactive substances) using a fluorescence method. Results: Mean (± SE) TRF lengths of the Type 2 diabetic patients (6.01 ± 0.2 kb) were significantly shorter than those of the control subjects (9.11 ± 0.6 kb) (P = 0.0001). Among the biochemical parameters, only levels of TBARS showed a negative correlation with shortened telomeres in the diabetic subjects (r = −0.36; P = 0.02). However, telomere lengths were negatively correlated with insulin resistance (HOMA‐IR) (r = −0.4; P = 0.01) and age (r = −0.3; P = 0.058) and positively correlated with HDL levels (r = 0.4; P = 0.01) in the control subjects. Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis revealed diabetes to be significantly (P < 0.0001) associated with shortening of TRF lengths. Conclusions: Telomere shortening occurs in Asian Indian Type 2 diabetic patients

    Does long-term care use within primary health care reduce hospital use among older people in Norway? A national five-year population-based observational study

    Get PDF
    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Population ageing may threaten the sustainability of future health care systems. Strengthening primary health care, including long-term care, is one of several measures being taken to handle future health care needs and budgets. There is limited and inconsistent evidence on the effect of long-term care on hospital use. We explored the relationship between the total use of long-term care within public primary health care in Norway and the use of hospital beds when adjusting for various effect modifiers and confounders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This national population-based observational study consists of all Norwegians (59% women) older than 66 years (N = 605676) (13.2% of total population) in 2002-2006. The unit of analysis was defined by municipality, age and sex. The association between total number of recipients of long-term care per 1000 inhabitants (LTC-rate) and hospital days per 1000 inhabitants (HD-rate) was analysed in a linear regression model. Modifying and confounding effects of socioeconomic, demographic and geographic variables were included in the final model. We defined a difference in hospitalization rates of more than 1000 days per 1000 inhabitants as clinically important.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Thirty-one percent of women and eighteen percent of men were long-term care users. Men had higher HD-rates than women. The crude association between LTC-rate and HD-rate was weakly negative. We identified two effect modifiers (age and sex) and two strong confounders (travel time to hospital and mortality). Age and sex stratification and adjustments for confounders revealed a positive statistically significant but not clinically important relationship between LTC-rates and hospitalization for women aged 67-79 years and all men. For women 80 years and over there was a weak but negative relationship which was neither statistically significant nor clinically important.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found a weak positive adjusted association between LTC-rates and HD-rates. Opposite to common belief, we found that increased volume of LTC by itself did not reduce pressure on hospitals. There still is a need to study integrated care models for the elderly in the Norwegian setting and to explore further why municipalities far away from hospital achieve lower use of hospital beds.</p

    Low Dose Organochlorine Pesticides and Polychlorinated Biphenyls Predict Obesity, Dyslipidemia, and Insulin Resistance among People Free of Diabetes

    Get PDF
    There is emerging evidence that background exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are important in the development of conditions predisposing to diabetes as well as of type 2 diabetes itself. We recently reported that low dose POPs predicted incident type 2 diabetes in a nested case-control study. The current study examined if low dose POPs predicted future adiposity, dyslipidemia, and insulin resistance among controls without diabetes in that study.The 90 controls were diabetes-free during 20 years follow-up. They were a stratified random sample, enriched with overweight and obese persons. POPs measured in 1987-88 (year 2) sera included 8 organochlorine (OC) pesticides, 22 polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and 1 polybrominated biphenyl (PBB). Body mass index (BMI), triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, and homeostasis model assessment value for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) were study outcomes at 2005-06 (year 20). The evolution of study outcomes during 18 years by categories of serum concentrations of POPs at year 2 was evaluated by adjusting for the baseline values of outcomes plus potential confounders. Parallel to prediction of type 2 diabetes, many statistically significant associations of POPs with dysmetabolic conditions appeared at low dose, forming inverted U-shaped dose-response relations. Among OC pesticides, p,p'-DDE most consistently predicted higher BMI, triglycerides, and HOMA-IR and lower HDL-cholesterol at year 20 after adjusting for baseline values. Oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor, and hexachlorobenzene also significantly predicted higher triglycerides. Persistent PCBs with ≥7 chlorides predicted higher BMI, triglycerides, and HOMA-IR and lower HDL-cholesterol at year 20 with similar dose-response curves.Simultaneous exposure to various POPs in the general population may contribute to development of obesity, dyslipidemia, and insulin resistance, common precursors of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Although obesity is a primary cause of these metabolic abnormalities, POPs exposure may contribute to excess adiposity and other features of dysmetabolism

    Children who are both wasted and stunted are also underweight and have a high risk of death: a descriptive epidemiology of multiple anthropometric deficits using data from 51 countries.

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: Wasting and stunting are common. They are implicated in the deaths of almost two million children each year and account for over 12% of disability-adjusted life years lost in young children. Wasting and stunting tend to be addressed as separate issues despite evidence of common causality and the fact that children may suffer simultaneously from both conditions (WaSt). Questions remain regarding the risks associated with WaSt, which children are most affected, and how best to reach them. METHODS: A database of cross-sectional survey datasets containing data for almost 1.8 million children was compiled. This was analysed to determine the intersection between sets of wasted, stunted, and underweight children; the association between being wasted and being stunted; the severity of wasting and stunting in WaSt children; the prevalence of WaSt by age and sex, and to identify weight-for-age z-score and mid-upper arm circumference thresholds for detecting cases of WaSt. An additional analysis of the WHO Growth Standards sought the maximum possible weight-for-age z-score for WaSt children. RESULTS: All children who were simultaneously wasted and stunted were also underweight. The maximum possible weight-for-age z-score in these children was below - 2.35. Low WHZ and low HAZ have a joint effect on WAZ which varies with age and sex. WaSt and "multiple anthropometric deficits" (i.e. being simultaneously wasted, stunted, and underweight) are identical conditions. The conditions of being wasted and being stunted are positively associated with each other. WaSt cases have more severe wasting than wasted only cases. WaSt cases have more severe stunting than stunted only cases. WaSt is largely a disease of younger children and of males. Cases of WaSt can be detected with excellent sensitivity and good specificity using weight-for-age. CONCLUSIONS: The category "multiple anthropometric deficits" can be abandoned in favour of WaSt. Therapeutic feeding programs should cover WaSt cases given the high mortality risk associated with this condition. Work on treatment effectiveness, duration of treatment, and relapse after cure for WaSt cases should be undertaken. Routine reporting of the prevalence of WaSt should be encouraged. Further work on the aetiology, prevention, case-finding, and treatment of WaSt cases as well as the extent to which current interventions are reaching WaSt cases is required

    Progression of coronary calcification in healthy postmenopausal women

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcium score incrementally improves coronary risk prediction beyond that provided by conventional risk factors. Limited information is available regarding rates of progression of coronary calcification in women, particularly those with baseline scores above zero. Further, determinants of progression of coronary artery calcification in women are not well understood. This study prospectively evaluated rates and determinants of progression of coronary artery calcium score in a group of healthy postmenopausal women. METHODS: We determined coronary calcium score by computed tomography and recorded demographic, lifestyle and health characteristics of 914 postmenopausal women, a subset of those enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study. The 305 women with calcium score ≥10 Agatston units at baseline were invited for repeat scan. This analysis includes the 94 women who underwent second scans. RESULTS: Mean age of study participants was 65 ± 9 years (mean ± SD), body mass index was 26.1 ± 6.1 kg/m(2), and baseline calcium score was 162 ± 220 Agatston units. Mean interval between scans was 3.3 ± 0.7 years. A wide range of changes in coronary calcium score was observed, from -53 to +452 Agatston units/year. Women with lower scores at baseline had smaller annual increases in absolute calcium score. Coronary calcium scores increased 11, 31 and 79 Agatston units/year among women with baseline calcium score in the lowest, middle and highest tertiles. In multivariate analysis, age was not an independent predictor of absolute change in coronary calcium score. Hydroxymethylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitor (statin) use at baseline was a negative predictor (p = 0.015), whereas baseline calcium score was a strong, positive predictor (p < 0.0001) of progression of coronary calcification. CONCLUSION: Among postmenopausal women with coronary calcium score ≥ 10 Agatston units, rates of change of coronary calcium score varied widely. In multivariate analysis, statin use was a negative independent determinant, whereas baseline calcium score was a strong positive predictor of annual change in coronary calcium score

    Recent cadmium exposure among male partners may affect oocyte fertilization during in vitro fertilization (IVF)

    Get PDF
    We recently reported evidence suggesting associations between urine cadmium concentrations, reflecting long-term exposure, measured in 25 female patients (relative risk = 1.41, P = 0.412) and 15 of their male partners (relative risk = 0.19, P = 0.097) and oocyte fertilization in vitro. Blood cadmium concentrations reflect more recent exposure. We here incorporate those measures into our prior data set and employ multivariable log-binomial regression models to generate hypotheses concerning the relative effects of long-term and recent cadmium exposure on oocyte fertilization in vitro. No association is indicated for blood cadmium from women and oocyte fertilization, adjusted for urine cadmium and creatinine, blood lead and mercury, age, race/ethnicity and cigarette smoking (relative risk = 0.88, P = 0.828). However, we suggest an inverse adjusted association between blood cadmium from men and oocyte fertilization (relative risk = 0.66, P = 0.143). These results suggest that consideration of long-term and recent exposures are both important for assessing the effect of partner cadmium levels on oocyte fertilization in vitro
    corecore