Comprehensive analysis of tornado statistics in comparison to earthquakes: intensity and temporal behaviour

Tornadoes and earthquakes are characterised by a high variability in their properties concerning intensity, geometric properties and temporal behaviour. Earthquakes are known for power-law behaviour in their intensity (Gutenberg–Richter law) and temporal statistics (e.g. Omori law and interevent waiting times). The observed similarity of high variability of these two phenomena motivated us to compare the statistical behaviour of tornadoes using seismological methods and quest for power-law behaviour. In general, the statistics of tornadoes show power-law behaviour partly coextensive with characteristic scales when the temporal resolution is high (10 to 60 min). These characteristic scales match with the typical diurnal behaviour of tornadoes, which is characterised by a maximum of tornado occurrences in the late afternoon hours. Furthermore, the distributions support the observation that tornadoes cluster in time. Finally, we shortly discuss a possible similar underlying structure composed of heterogeneous, coupled, interactive threshold oscillators that possibly explains the observed behaviour

Kinematic vorticity number - a tool for estimating vortex sizes and circulations

The influence of extratropical vortices on a global scale is mainly characterised by their size and by the magnitude of their circulation. However, the determination of these properties is still a great challenge since a vortex has no clear delimitations but is part of the flow field itself. In this work, we introduce a kinematic vortex size determination method based on the kinematic vorticity number Wk to atmospheric flows. Wk relates the local rate-of-rotation to the local rate-of-deformation at every point in the field and a vortex core is identified as a simply connected region where the rotation prevails over the deformation. Additionally, considering the sign of vorticity in the extended Wk-method allows to identify highs and lows in different vertical layers of the atmosphere and to study vertical as well as horizontal vortex interactions. We will test the Wk-method in different idealised 2-D (superposition of two lows/low and jet) and real 3-D flow situations (winter storm affecting Europe) and compare the results with traditional methods based on the pressure and the vorticity fields. In comparison to these traditional methods, the Wk-method is able to extract vortex core sizes even in shear-dominated regions that occur frequently in the upper troposphere. Furthermore, statistics of the size and circulation distributions of cyclones will be given. Since the Wk-method identifies vortex cores, the identified radii are subsynoptic with a broad peak around 300-500km at the 1000 hPa level. However, the total circulating area is not only restricted to the core. In general, circulations are in the order of 107m2/s with only a few cyclones in the order of 108m2/s

The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany

Cold fronts provide an environment particularly favourable for convective initiation in the mid-latitudes and can also be associated with convective hazards such as flooding, wind, hail and lightning. We build a climatology of cold-frontal convective cells between 2007–2016 for April–September in a cell-front distance framework by combining a radar-based cell detection and tracking dataset and automatic front detection methods applied to reanalysis data. We find that on average around twice as many cells develop on cold-frontal cell days compared to non-cold-frontal cell days. Using the 700 hPa level as a reference point, we show the maximum cell frequency is 350–400 km ahead of the 700 hPa front, which is marginally ahead of the typical surface front location. The 700 hPa front location marks the minimum cell frequency and a clear shift in regime between cells, with a weakened diurnal cycle on the warm side of the 700 hPa cold front and strongly diurnally driven cells on the cold side of the 700 hPa front. High cell frequency is found several hundreds of kilometres ahead of the surface front, and cells in this region are most likely to be associated with mesocyclones, intense convective cores and lightning. Namely, mesocyclones were detected in around 5.0 % of pre-surface-frontal cells compared to only 1.5 % of non-cold-frontal cells. The findings in this study are an important step towards a better understanding of cold-frontal convection climatology and links between cold fronts and convective hazards

blocking events and the stability of the polar vortex

The present study investigates non-linear dynamics of atmospheric flow phenomena on different scales as interactions of vortices. Thereby, we apply the idealised, two-dimensional concept of point vortices considering two important issues in atmospheric dynamics. First, we propose this not widely spread concept in meteorology to explain blocked weather situations using a three-point vortex equilibrium. Here, a steady state is given if the zonal mean flow is identical to the opposed translational velocity of the vortex system. We apply this concept exemplarily to two major blocked events establishing a new pattern recognition technique based on the kinematic vorticity number to determine the circulations and positions of the interacting vortices. By using reanalysis data, we demonstrate that the velocity of the tripole in a westward direction is almost equal to the westerly flow explaining the steady state of blocked events. Second, we introduce a novel idea to transfer a stability analysis of a vortex equilibrium to the stability of the polar vortex concerning its interaction with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Here, the point vortex system is built as a polygon ring of vortices around a central vortex. On this way we confirm observations that perturbations of the polar vortex during the QBO east phase lead to instability, whereas the polar vortex remains stable in QBO west phases. Thus, by applying point vortex theory to challenging problems in atmospheric dynamics we show an alternative, discrete view of synoptic and planetary scale motion

QG-DL: Dynamics of a diabatic layer in the quasi-geostrophic framework

Quasi-geostrophic (QG) theory describes the dynamics of synoptic scale flows in the trophosphere that are balanced with respect to both acoustic and internal gravity waves. Within this framework, effects of (turbulent) friction near the ground are usually represented by Ekman Layer theory. The troposphere covers roughly the lowest ten kilometers of the atmosphere while Ekman layer heights are typically just a few hundred meters. However, this two-layer asymptotic theory does not explicitly account for substantial changes of the potential temperature stratification due to diabatic heating associated with cloud formation or with radiative and turbulent heat fluxes, which, in the middle latitudes, can be particularly important in about the lowest three kilometers. To address this deficiency, this paper extends the classical QG–Ekman layer model by introducing an intermediate, dynamically and thermodynamically active layer, called the “diabatic layer” (DL) from here on. The flow in this layer is also in acoustic, hydrostatic, and geostrophic balance but, in contrast to QG flow, variations of potential temperature are not restricted to small deviations from a stable and time independent background stratification. Instead, within the diabatic layer, diabatic processes are allowed to affect the leading-order stratification. As a consequence, the diabatic layer modifies the pressure field at the top of the Ekman layer, and with it the intensity of Ekman pumping seen by the quasi-geostrophic bulk flow. The result is the proposed extended quasi-geostrophic three-layer QG-DL-Ekman model for mid-latitude (dry and moist) dynamics

Atmospheric blocking types: Frequencies and transitions

Abstract. Stationary, long-lasting blocked weather patterns can lead to extreme conditions such as very high temperatures or heavy rainfall. They are defined by a persistent high pressure system in combination with one or two low pressure systems. The mechanisms for the onset of such weather patterns are still not fully understood. Using a novel method based on the kinematic vorticity number we distinguish between two blocking types, namely High-over-Low and Omega block, in previously-identified blocking periods. Our main goal of this work is to study the temporal evolution of the occurrence probability and the onset, offset, and transition probabilities of blocking on the northern hemisphere. We analyze NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 data over the30 year period from 1990 to 2019 in two regions: Euro-Atlantic sector (40° W–30° E) and half northern hemisphere (90° W–90° E). First, we use logistic regression to investigate the temporal development of blocking probabilities depending on years, seasons and months. We find no significant difference in blocking numbers over the 30 year period. But we find large differences in the occurrence probabilities on a monthly basis with strongest increases over the 30 year period in February and March that are compensated by a decrease in December and autumn. Second, we use a Markov model to calculate the transition probabilities for two models: One is composed of two states blocking and no blocking, and another Markov model (three states) that additionally distinguishes between the specific blocking types High-over-Low and Omega blocking as well as of the state no blocking. The description with Markov theory reduces the probability to change from one weather regime to another or to stay within the same regime to a dependency only on the previous time step. Over the 30 year period, we found the largest changes in transition probabilities in the summer season, where the transition probability to Omega blocks increase strongly, while the unblocked state becomes less probable. Hence, Omega blocks become more frequent and stable in summer at the expense of the other states. As a main result, we show that Omega blocking is more likely to occur and more persistent than the High-over-Low blocking pattern

Auf dem Weg zur inklusiven Universität - Reflexionen zu Diskriminierung und rassistischen Tendenzen

Die Broschüre verfolgt das Ziel, die Reflexion über die Möglichkeiten und Grenzen einer Positionierung der Universität gegen Fremdenfeindlichkeit und Diskriminierung anzuregen. Zugleich sollen damit alle Mitarbeiter*innen und Studierenden der TU Dresden dazu aufrufen werden, an einem weltoffenen und diversitätsorientierten Universitätsalltag mitzuwirken, in dem sich alle Angehörigen der TU Dresden gleich welcher Herkunft aufgehoben und willkommen fühlen

Alles im weißen Bereich?: Institutioneller Rassismus in Sachsen: Erweiterter Tagungsband

Die Tagung «Alles im weißen Bereich. Institutioneller Rassismus in Sachsen», die im Februar 2014 stattfand, war die fünfte Tagung in unserer Reihe zu Fragen der Demokratie. Der Gegenstand von Tagung und Sammelband steht für uns einerseits in logischer Reihenfolge bisheriger Fragen und Diskussionen zu den Zuständen Sächsischer Demokratie. Insbesondere war unsere Entscheidung in der Vorbereitung aber auch von der Arbeit der Untersuchungs-ausschüsse zum «NSU» angeregt worden. Ohne den Rassismus, der als grundlegender gesellschaftlicher Wissensbestand existiert, ist die Geschichte und das Versagen des staatlichen Sicherheitsapparates im Zusammenhang mit dem NSU schwer vorstellbar oder nicht möglich. Rassismus ist damit nicht nur das Motiv für die Ermordung von Menschen, sondern auch ein entscheidender Grund dafür, dass diese Morde nicht wirksam verhindert und teilweise nicht oder erst sehr spät aufgeklärt werden können. Diese Feststellung scheint offensichtlich, sie hat sich aber trotz einer breit geführten öffentlichen Debatte und der Arbeit verschiedener Untersuchungsausschüsse als nicht mehrheitsfähig erwiesen. Ebenso wenig konnte Institutioneller Rassismus als Perspektive und Analyseinstrument politisch etabliert werden. Redaktionsschluss: November 201