Finite-size effects in the self-organized critical forest-fire model

We study finite-size effects in the self-organized critical forest-fire model by numerically evaluating the tree density and the fire size distribution. The results show that this model does not display the finite-size scaling seen in conventional critical systems. Rather, the system is composed of relatively homogeneous patches of different tree densities, leading to two qualitatively different types of fires: those that span an entire patch and those that don't. As the system size becomes smaller, the system contains less patches, and finally becomes homogeneous, with large density fluctuations in time.Comment: 10 pages, 11 figure

Die archäologisch-topographische Vermessung des Mont Lassois bei Châtillon sur Seine, Côte d’Or, in den Jahren 2002 - 2005 - Methoden und Ergebnisse

Die in das "Projet Collectif de Recherche: Vix et son Environnement" (PCR Vix) eingebundene topographische Vermessung des Mont Lassois begann im Frühjahr 2002. Sie soll einen Grundlagenplan für die archäologische Erforschung des Berges liefern

Using an interpretable Machine Learning approach to study the drivers of International Migration

Globally increasing migration pressures call for new modelling approaches in order to design effective policies. It is important to have not only efficient models to predict migration flows but also to understand how specific parameters influence these flows. In this paper, we propose an artificial neural network (ANN) to model international migration. Moreover, we use a technique for interpreting machine learning models, namely Partial Dependence Plots (PDP), to show that one can well study the effects of drivers behind international migration. We train and evaluate the model on a dataset containing annual international bilateral migration from $1960$ to $2010$ from $175$ origin countries to $33$ mainly OECD destinations, along with the main determinants as identified in the migration literature. The experiments carried out confirm that: 1) the ANN model is more efficient w.r.t. a traditional model, and 2) using PDP we are able to gain additional insights on the specific effects of the migration drivers. This approach provides much more information than only using the feature importance information used in previous works

The German MultiCare-study: Patterns of multimorbidity in primary health care – protocol of a prospective cohort study

Background Multimorbidity is a highly frequent condition in older people, but well designed longitudinal studies on the impact of multimorbidity on patients and the health care system have been remarkably scarce in numbers until today. Little is known about the long term impact of multimorbidity on the patients' life expectancy, functional status and quality of life as well as health care utilization over time. As a consequence, there is little help for GPs in adjusting care for these patients, even though studies suggest that adhering to present clinical practice guidelines in the care of patients with multimorbidity may have adverse effects. Methods The study is designed as a multicentre prospective, observational cohort study of 3.050 patients aged 65 to 85 at baseline with at least three different diagnoses out of a list of 29 illnesses and syndromes. The patients will be recruited in approx. 120 to 150 GP surgeries in 8 study centres distributed across Germany. Information about the patients' morbidity will be collected mainly in GP interviews and from chart reviews. Functional status, resources/risk factors, health care utilization and additional morbidity data will be assessed in patient interviews, in which a multitude of well established standardized questionnaires and tests will be performed. Discussion The main aim of the cohort study is to monitor the course of the illness process and to analyse for which reasons medical conditions are stable, deteriorating or only temporarily present. First, clusters of combinations of diseases/disorders (multimorbidity patterns) with a comparable impact (e.g. on quality of life and/or functional status) will be identified. Then the development of these clusters over time will be analysed, especially with regard to prognostic variables and the somatic, psychological and social consequences as well as the utilization of health care resources. The results will allow the development of an instrument for prediction of the deterioration of the illness process and point at possibilities of prevention. The practical consequences of the study results for primary care will be analysed in expert focus groups in order to develop strategies for the inclusion of the aspects of multimorbidity in primary care guidelines

Phase transitions in a nonequilibrium percolation model

We investigate the percolation properties of a two-state (occupied - empty) cellular automaton, where at each time step a cluster of occupied sites is removed and the same number of randomly chosen empty sites are occupied again. We find a finite region of critical behavior, formation of synchronized stripes, additional phase transitions, as well as violation of the usual finite-size scaling and hyperscaling relations, phenomena that are very different from conventional percolation systems. We explain the mechanisms behind all these phenomena using computer simulations and analytic arguments.Comment: 48 pages RevTeX incl. 20 figures, to appear in Physical Review