Modeling the contribution of pig farming to pollution of the Thachin River

Rapid growth of the livestock production sector in South-East Asia during recent decades has led to a widespread degradation of ground and surface waters. The Thachin River Basin in Central Thailand serves as a case study for investigating the origins and pathways of nutrient loads produced by intensive pig farming. A mathematical material flow analysis is used to identify key nitrogen flows and the main parameters determining them. Scenarios of the potential for reducing these flows and achieving compliance with current discharge regulations are investigated. The results show that liquid waste discharged from large pig farms and directly discharged waste from small farms are the key nitrogen flows to the river system. The key driving forces are not only the treatment coverage and efficiencies but also the rate of reuse and recycling of the treated produc

Global renewable energies: a dynamic study of implementation time, greenhouse gas emissions and financial needs

The current worldwide energy consumption is largely dominated by non-renewable energies such as coal, oil and gas. For well-known reasons, this concept should be changed to a more sustainable one based on renewables. As learned from history, a transition from one energy system to another has always taken about 100years. A dynamic material flow model is developed to simulate some key elements for the implementation of renewable energy systems on a large scale. These key elements are the required industrial capacity, the energy and financial requirements and the impact on greenhouse gas mitigation. Results are presented for wind, photovoltaic, hydro, solar thermal, geothermal and biomass electrical energy systems. The comparison of two different implementation strategies, moderate ≈60years and fast ≈30years, shows that the implementation time is the only limitation, resulting in large production overcapacities. The energy and financial needs are not as critical. The implementation of renewables on a large scale would considerably reduce CO2 emissions by 2tons per person per year for a world population of 7billion peopl

Material flow and economic analysis as a suitable tool for system analysis under the constraints of poor data availability and quality in emerging economies

Waste from electrical and electronic equipment or e-waste is increasingly processed in transitional or developing countries. The waste originates from both national consumption and waste imports. In these countries the e-waste processing and recycling is managed almost entirely by informal recycling businesses. Due to the application of inappropriate techniques, this sector bares high risks of environmental and occupational hazards and also looses valuable materials. Formal recycling industries have to compete with the informal businesses and simultaneously comply with environmental and occupational regulations. The presented model applies a dynamic stock-driven material flow model and an economic evaluation of gold and copper flows to the Indian personal computer (PC) recycling sector. The metal concentration per PC and value of these metals mainly determine the profits for recyclers. The study introduced threshold values for formal and informal gold and copper recycling according to their recycling cost per PC. At present level of metal concentration per PC and metal prices the formal sector will not become active. Two scenarios, one with double metal prices and a second with reduced threshold values for formal recycling, have been calculated. Also under theses scenarios the formal recycling sector will not overtake a majority of the recycling. The model proves that a stock-driven dynamic material flow model can be combined with an economic evaluation of material flows. The analysis included a calculation of error propagation and a sensitivity analysi

Dynamic Substance Flow Analysis as a Valuable Risk Evaluation Tool – A Case Study for Brominated Flame Retardants as an Example of Potential Endocrine Disrupters

Most studies of potentially hazardous substances focus on aspects of their occurrence and fate in the environment (monitoring and modelling studies) to estimate the environmental impact and the potential exposure of humans. In order to evaluate emission sources, to recognise environmental impacts at an early stage, and to take efficient legislative or technical measures, it is essential to know their behaviour in the anthroposphere as a function of time. So far, only very few investigations of this type exist for chemicals. In regular risk assessments, only rather limited knowledge is available concerning the behaviour of chemicals in the anthroposphere (production data, substance quantities in products, recycling rates, emissions occurring during use, etc.) or their lifecycle, and no information at all about their behaviour as a function of time. For this reason, it is these aspects that were investigated in a case study within the framework of the national research programme NRP50 for selected brominated flame retardants with endocrine-disrupting potential (pentabromodiphenyl ether, hexabromocyclododecane) or the potential to degrade to such substances (decabromodiphenyl ether). A dynamic substance flow analysis (SFA) model was performed for Switzerland for the time period 1980–2020. In this review paper (a) we present a summary of typical results (system overview, consumption trends/application patterns, anthropogenic stocks and their changes, emission trends including major sources and environmental fate), (b) we summarize the effectiveness of recent risk-reduction measures in Switzerland and (c) we indicate serious remaining data gaps and recommend further important measures for risk reduction. For the future, we suggest improving the knowledge of the lifecycle of chemicals such as brominated flame retardants by applying SFA as a suitable tool to weight the effect of substance flows with respect to environmental emissions, and to serve as the basis for planning actions and measures to reduce such emissions. This is in line with one major conclusion of the NRP50 consensus platform 'Brominated Flame Retardants'

Household analysis identifies water-related energy efficiency opportunities

Water heating accounts for around one third of household direct energy use. This energy demand is some four times greater than lighting. Here we use detailed monitoring and modelling of seven individual households to quantify major factors. Using normalized sensitivity results we demonstrate (i) high variability and (ii) a large and consistent influence of shower duration, flow rate, frequency and temperature along with hot water system efficiency, adult population, and the temperature of cold water. A 10% change in these factors influenced 0.1–0.9 kWh/hh-person.d, equivalent to a 2–3% of total household energy use. We draw on 5399 shower events from a further 94 households, and 491 shower temperature measurements to understand the scope for changes to the households. Individual parameters variation guided by these larger datasets demonstrated shower duration and flow rate offer most scope for change. The work helps guide city-scale analysis of household water-related energy demand. It also supports the tailoring of behavioural and technological water-efficiency programs towards those with strongest potential to influence energy. Strong interaction between parameters suggests that programs aiming to influence water-related energy need to be aware of how this interplay either amplifies, or diminishes, the intended energy savings

Method for analyzing trade-offs in biomass management in smallholder farming systems based on mass balance

In smallholder farming systems, especially in mountainous areas, households face trade-offs between meeting short-term human needs and ensuring long-term soil productivity. Improved biomass management can help break the downward spiral of overexploitation of natural resources, land degradation, and productivity decline, and support more sustainable use of marginal land. Mixed crop/livestock systems are often carefully balanced to minimize risks. Thus, when planning interventions, profound systems knowledge is crucial. However, the data required for system characterization are often scarce, and original field studies are thus necessary. The aim of this research, a case study in Tajikistan, was to improve systems understanding of the biomass cycle in crop/livestock systems in order to quantify the obstacles to the spread of sustainable land management technologies to farming households. It aimed to establish a database and methods of rapid data collection to quantify the stocks and flows of biomass, with a focus on mass balances, and to evaluate smallholders’ biomass management options and trade-offs. Data collection included household interviews, secondary literature, and reference data sets from global sources. Trade-off analysis focused on household-level self-supply of food, fodder, and fuel by farmers with different sizes of smallholdings, and their potential for on-farm recycling of organic matter. Results indicate that food self-supply by small and medium smallholders is insufficient and fodder sources are scarce. Fodder scarcity means that application of crop byproducts to soils is unlikely. Animal dung is largely used as fuel. Firewood needs exceed on-farm wood production, leading to deforestation. The approach presented facilitates an understanding of current and potential agricultural land interventions in the crop/livestock farming systems prevailing in mountainous areas

The impact of porous media heterogeneity on non-Darcy flow behaviour from pore-scale simulation

The effect of pore-scale heterogeneity on non-Darcy flow behaviour is investigated by means of direct flow simulations on 3-D images of a beadpack, Bentheimer sandstone and Estaillades carbonate. The critical Reynolds number indicating the cessation of the creeping Darcy flow regime in Estaillades carbonate is two orders of magnitude smaller than in Bentheimer sandstone, and is three orders of magnitude smaller than in the beadpack. It is inferred from the examination of flow field features that the emergence of steady eddies in pore space of Estaillades at elevated fluid velocities accounts for the early transition away from the Darcy flow regime. The non-Darcy coefficient β, the onset of non-Darcy flow, and the Darcy permeability for all samples are obtained and compared to available experimental data demonstrating the predictive capability of our approach. X-ray imaging along with direct pore-scale simulation of flow provides a viable alternative to experiments and empirical correlations for predicting non-Darcy flow parameters such as the β factor, and the onset of non-Darcy flow

Guillain-Barre syndrome after SARS-CoV-2 infection in an international prospective cohort study

In the wake of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, an increasing number of patients with neurological disorders, including Guillain-Barre syndrome (GBS), have been reported following this infection. It remains unclear, however, if these cases are coincidental or not, as most publications were case reports or small regional retrospective cohort studies. The International GBS Outcome Study is an ongoing prospective observational cohort study enrolling patients with GBS within 2 weeks from onset of weakness. Data from patients included in this study, between 30 January 2020 and 30 May 2020, were used to investigate clinical and laboratory signs of a preceding or concurrent SARS-CoV-2 infection and to describe the associated clinical phenotype and disease course. Patients were classified according to the SARS-CoV-2 case definitions of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and laboratory recommendations of the World Health Organization. Forty-nine patients with GBS were included, of whom eight (16%) had a confirmed and three (6%) a probable SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nine of these 11 patients had no serological evidence of other recent preceding infections associated with GBS, whereas two had serological evidence of a recent Campylobacter jejuni infection. Patients with a confirmed or probable SARS-CoV-2 infection frequently had a sensorimotor variant 8/11 (73%) and facial palsy 7/11 (64%). The eight patients who underwent electrophysiological examination all had a demyelinating subtype, which was more prevalent than the other patients included in the same time window [14/30 (47%), P = 0.012] as well as historical region and age-matched control subjects included in the International GBS Outcome Study before the pandemic [23/44 (52%), P = 0.016]. The median time from the onset of infection to neurological symptoms was 16 days (interquartile range 12-22). Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection shared uniform neurological features, similar to those previously described in other post-viral GBS patients. The frequency (22%) of a preceding SARS-CoV-2 infection in our study population was higher than estimates of the contemporaneous background prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, which may be a result of recruitment bias during the pandemic, but could also indicate that GBS may rarely follow a recent SARS-CoV-2 infection. Consistent with previous studies, we found no increase in patient recruitment during the pandemic for our ongoing International GBS Outcome Study compared to previous years, making a strong relationship of GBS with SARS-CoV-2 unlikely. A case-control study is required to determine if there is a causative link or not