Combination of SAR remote sensing and GIS for monitoring subglacial volcanic activity – recent results from Vatnajökull ice cap (Iceland)

This paper presents latest results from the combined use of SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) remote sensing and GIS providing detailed insights into recent volcanic activity under Vatnajökull ice cap (Iceland). Glaciers atop active volcanoes pose a constant potential danger to adjacent inhabited regions and infrastructure. Besides the usual volcanic hazards (lava flows, pyroclastic clouds, tephra falls, etc.), the volcano-ice interaction leads to enormous meltwater torrents (icelandic: jökulhlaup), devastating large areas in the surroundings of the affected glacier. The presented monitoring strategy addresses the three crucial questions: When will an eruption occur, where is the eruption site and which area is endangered by the accompanying jökulhlaup. Therefore, sufficient early-warning and hazard zonation for future subglacial volcanic eruptions becomes possible, as demonstrated for the Bardárbunga volcano under the northern parts of Vatnajökull. Seismic activity revealed unrest at the northern flanks of Bardárbunga caldera at the end of September 2006. The exact location of the corresponding active vent and therefore a potentially eruptive area could be detected by continuous ENVISAT-ASAR monitoring. With this knowledge a precise prediction of peri-glacial regions prone to a devastating outburst flood accompanying a possible future eruption is possible

One‐week escitalopram intake alters the excitation–inhibition balance in the healthy female brain

Neural health relies on cortical excitation-inhibition balance (EIB). Previous research suggests a link between increased cortical excitation and neuroplasticity induced by selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Whether there are modulations of EIB following SSRI-administration in the healthy human brain, however, remains unclear. Thus, in a randomized double-blind study, we administered a clinically relevant dose of 20 mg escitalopram for 7 days (time when steady state is achieved) in 59 healthy women (28 escitalopram, 31 placebo) on oral contraceptives. We acquired resting-state electroencephalography data at baseline, after a single dose, and at steady state. We assessed 1/f slope of the power spectrum as a marker of EIB, compared individual trajectories of 1/f slope changes contrasting single dose and 1-week drug intake, and tested the relationship of escitalopram plasma levels and cortical excitatory and inhibitory balance shifts. Escitalopram-intake was associated with decreased 1/f slope, indicating an EIB shift in favor of excitation. Furthermore, 1/f slope at baseline and after a single dose of escitalopram was associated with 1/f slope at steady state. Higher plasma escitalopram levels at a single dose were associated with better maintenance of these EIB changes throughout the drug administration week. These findings demonstrate the potential for 1/f slope to predict individual cortical responsivity to SSRIs and widen the lens through which we map the human brain by testing an interventional psychopharmacological design in a clearly defined endocrinological state

The attention-emotion interaction in healthy female participants on oral contraceptives during 1-week escitalopram intake

Previous findings in healthy humans suggest that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) modulate emotional processing via earlier changes in attention. However, many previous studies have provided inconsistent findings. One possible reason for such inconsistencies is that these studies did not control for the influence of either sex or sex hormone fluctuations. To address this inconsistency, we administered 20 mg escitalopram or placebo for seven consecutive days in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled design to sixty healthy female participants with a minimum of 3 months oral contraceptive (OC) intake. Participants performed a modified version of an emotional flanker task before drug administration, after a single dose, after 1 week of SSRI intake, and after a 1-month wash-out period. Supported by Bayesian analyses, our results do not suggest a modulatory effect of escitalopram on behavioral measures of early attentional-emotional interaction in female individuals with regular OC use. While the specific conditions of our task may be a contributing factor, it is also possible that a practice effect in a healthy sample may mask the effects of escitalopram on the attentional-emotional interplay. Consequently, 1 week of escitalopram administration may not modulate attention toward negative emotional distractors outside the focus of attention in healthy female participants taking OCs. While further research in naturally cycling females and patient samples is needed, our results represent a valuable contribution toward the preclinical investigation of antidepressant treatment

Decreased thalamo-cortico connectivity during an implicit sequence motor learning task and 7 days escitalopram intake

Evidence suggests that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) reorganize neural networks via a transient window of neuroplasticity. While previous findings support an effect of SSRIs on intrinsic functional connectivity, little is known regarding the influence of SSRI-administration on connectivity during sequence motor learning. To investigate this, we administered 20 mg escitalopram or placebo for 1-week to 60 healthy female participants undergoing concurrent functional magnetic resonance imaging and sequence motor training in a double-blind randomized controlled design. We assessed task-modulated functional connectivity with a psycho-physiological interaction (PPI) analysis in the thalamus, putamen, cerebellum, dorsal premotor, primary motor, supplementary motor, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices. Comparing an implicit sequence learning condition to a control learning condition, we observed decreased connectivity between the thalamus and bilateral motor regions after 7 days of escitalopram intake. Additionally, we observed a negative correlation between plasma escitalopram levels and PPI connectivity changes, with higher escitalopram levels being associated with greater thalamo-cortico decreases. Our results suggest that escitalopram enhances network-level processing efficiency during sequence motor learning, despite no changes in behaviour. Future studies in more diverse samples, however, with quantitative imaging of neurochemical markers of excitation and inhibition, are necessary to further assess neural responses to escitalopram

Association of estradiol and visceral fat with structural brain networks and memory performance in adults

Importance Changes in estradiol during aging are associated with increased dementia risk. It remains unclear how estradiol supports cognitive health and whether risk factors, such as midlife obesity, are exacerbated by estrogen loss. Objectives To assess whether visceral adipose tissue (VAT) moderates the association between age and brain network structure and to investigate whether estradiol moderates the association between VAT and brain network structure. Design, Setting, and Participants Cross-sectional study of data from 974 cognitively healthy adults in Germany who participated in the Health Study of the Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases, a previously described population-based cohort study. Two moderation analyses were performed, including VAT as the moderator variable between age and brain network structure and estradiol as the moderator variable between VAT and brain network structure. The study was conducted from August 1, 2011, to November 23, 2014. Analyses were conducted from August 2017 to September 201

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)

Improved risk stratification of patients with atrial fibrillation: an integrated GARFIELD-AF tool for the prediction of mortality, stroke and bleed in patients with and without anticoagulation.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. DESIGN: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). PARTICIPANTS: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. RESULTS: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64-0.67), 0.64 (0.61-0.66) and 0.64 (0.61-0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710)

Two-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation: results from GARFIELD-AF.

AIMS: The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. METHODS AND RESULTS: GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. CONCLUSION: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362