The Geographic Synchrony of Seasonal Influenza: A Waves across Canada and the United States

BACKGROUND: As observed during the 2009 pandemic, a novel influenza virus can spread globally before the epidemic peaks locally. As consistencies in the relative timing and direction of spread could form the basis for an early alert system, the objectives of this study were to use the case-based reporting system for laboratory confirmed influenza from the Canadian FluWatch surveillance program to identify the geographic scale at which spatial synchrony exists and then to describe the geographic patterns of influenza A virus across Canada and in relationship to activity in the United States (US). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Weekly laboratory confirmations for influenza A were obtained from the Canadian FluWatch and the US FluView surveillance programs from 1997/98 to 2006/07. For the six seasons where at least 80% of the specimens were antigenically similar, we identified the epidemic midpoint of the local/regional/provincial epidemics and analyzed trends in the direction of spread. In three out of the six seasons, the epidemic appeared first in Canada. Regional epidemics were more closely synchronized across the US (3-5 weeks) compared to Canada (5-13 weeks), with a slight gradient in timing from the southwest regions in the US to northeast regions of Canada and the US. Cities, as well as rural areas within provinces, usually peaked within a couple of weeks of each other. The anticipated delay in peak activity between large cities and rural areas was not observed. In some mixed influenza A seasons, lack of synchronization sub-provincially was evident. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: As mixing between regions appears to be too weak to force a consistency in the direction and timing of spread, local laboratory-based surveillance is needed to accurately assess the level of influenza activity in the community. In comparison, mixing between urban communities and adjacent rural areas, and between some communities, may be sufficient to force synchronization

Estimating Sensitivity of Laboratory Testing for Influenza in Canada through Modelling

Background: The weekly proportion of laboratory tests that are positive for influenza is used in public health surveillance systems to identify periods of influenza activity. We aimed to estimate the sensitivity of influenza testing in Canada based on results of a national respiratory virus surveillance system. Methods and Findings: The weekly number of influenza-negative tests from 1999 to 2006 was modelled as a function of laboratory-confirmed positive tests for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), adenovirus and parainfluenza viruses, seasonality, and trend using Poisson regression. Sensitivity was calculated as the number of influenza positive tests divided by the number of influenza positive tests plus the model-estimated number of false negative tests. The sensitivity of influenza testing was estimated to be 33 % (95%CI 32–34%), varying from 30–40 % depending on the season and region. Conclusions: The estimated sensitivity of influenza tests reported to this national laboratory surveillance system is considerably less than reported test characteristics for most laboratory tests. A number of factors may explain this difference, including sample quality and specimen procurement issues as well as test characteristics. Improved diagnosis would permit better estimation of the burden of influenza

Characterization of a ballistic supermirror neutron guide

We describe the beam characteristics of the first ballistic supermirror neutron guide H113 that feeds the neutron user facility for particle physics PF1B of the Institute Laue-Langevin, Grenoble (ILL). At present, the neutron capture flux density of H113 at its 20x6cm2 exit window is 1.35x10^10/cm^2/s, and will soon be raised to above 2x10^10/cm^2/s. Beam divergence is no larger than beam divergence from a conventional Ni coated guide. A model is developed that permits rapid calculation of beam profiles and absolute event rates from such a beam. We propose a procedure that permits inter-comparability of the main features of beams emitted from ballistic or conventional neutron guides.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, to be submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Methods

Neutron Halo Isomers in Stable Nuclei and their Possible Application for the Production of Low Energy, Pulsed, Polarized Neutron Beams of High Intensity and High Brilliance

We propose to search for neutron halo isomers populated via $\gamma$-capture in stable nuclei with mass numbers of about A=140-180 or A=40-60, where the $4s_{1/2}$ or $3s_{1/2}$ neutron shell model state reaches zero binding energy. These halo nuclei can be produced for the first time with new $\gamma$-beams of high intensity and small band width ($\le$ 0.1%) achievable via Compton back-scattering off brilliant electron beams thus offering a promising perspective to selectively populate these isomers with small separation energies of 1 eV to a few keV. Similar to single-neutron halo states for very light, extremely neutron-rich, radioactive nuclei \cite{hansen95,tanihata96,aumann00}, the low neutron separation energy and short-range nuclear force allows the neutron to tunnel far out into free space much beyond the nuclear core radius. This results in prolonged half lives of the isomers for the $\gamma$-decay back to the ground state in the 100 ps-$\mu$s range. Similar to the treatment of photodisintegration of the deuteron, the neutron release from the neutron halo isomer via a second, low-energy, intense photon beam has a known much larger cross section with a typical energy threshold behavior. In the second step, the neutrons can be released as a low-energy, pulsed, polarized neutron beam of high intensity and high brilliance, possibly being much superior to presently existing beams from reactors or spallation neutron sources.Comment: accepted for publication in Applied Physics

Critical Limb Ischemia

Critical limb ischemia (CLI), defined as chronic ischemic rest pain, ulcers, or gangrene attributable to objectively proven arterial occlusive disease, is the most advanced form of peripheral arterial disease. Traditionally, open surgical bypass was the only effective treatment strategy for limb revascularization in this patient population. However, during the past decade, the introduction and evolution of endovascular procedures have significantly increased treatment options. In a certain subset of patients for whom either surgical or endovascular revascularization may not be appropriate, primary amputation remains a third treatment option. Definitive high-level evidence on which to base treatment decisions, with an emphasis on clinical and cost effectiveness, is still lacking. Treatment decisions in CLI are individualized, based on life expectancy, functional status, anatomy of the arterial occlusive disease, and surgical risk. For patients with aortoiliac disease, endovascular therapy has become first-line therapy for all but the most severe patterns of occlusion, and aortofemoral bypass surgery is a highly effective and durable treatment for the latter group. For infrainguinal disease, the available data suggest that surgical bypass with vein is the preferred therapy for CLI patients likely to survive 2 years or more, and for those with long segment occlusions or severe infrapopliteal disease who have an acceptable surgical risk. Endovascular therapy may be preferred in patients with reduced life expectancy, those who lack usable vein for bypass or who are at elevated risk for operation, and those with less severe arterial occlusions. Patients with unreconstructable disease, extensive necrosis involving weight-bearing areas, nonambulatory status, or other severe comorbidities may be considered for primary amputation or palliative measures

Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace

Influenza Surveillance among Outpatients and Inpatients in Morocco, 1996–2009

There is limited information about the epidemiology of influenza in Africa. We describe the epidemiology and seasonality of influenza in Morocco from 1996 to 2009 with particular emphasis on the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 influenza seasons. Successes and challenges of the enhanced surveillance system introduced in 2007 are also discussed.Virologic sentinel surveillance for influenza virus was initiated in Morocco in 1996 using a network of private practitioners that collected oro-pharyngeal and naso-pharyngeal swabs from outpatients presenting with influenza-like-illness (ILI). The surveillance network expanded over the years to include inpatients presenting with severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) at hospitals and syndromic surveillance for ILI and acute respiratory infection (ARI). Respiratory samples and structured questionnaires were collected from eligible patients, and samples were tested by immunofluorescence assays and by viral isolation for influenza viruses.We obtained a total of 6465 respiratory specimens during 1996 to 2009, of which, 3102 were collected during 2007-2009. Of those, 2249 (72%) were from patients with ILI, and 853 (27%) were from patients with SARI. Among the 3,102 patients, 98 (3%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza, of whom, 85 (87%) had ILI and 13 (13%) had SARI. Among ILI patients, the highest proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza occurred in children less than 5 years of age (3/169; 2% during 2007-2008 and 23/271; 9% during 2008-2009) and patients 25-59 years of age (8/440; 2% during 2007-2009 and 21/483; 4% during 2008-2009). All SARI patients with influenza were less than 14 years of age. During all surveillance years, influenza virus circulation was seasonal with peak circulation during the winter months of October through April.Influenza results in both mild and severe respiratory infections in Morocco, and accounted for a large proportion of all hospitalizations for severe respiratory illness among children 5 years of age and younger

Comparison of single- and multistage strategies during fenestrated-branched endovascular aortic repair of thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare outcomes of single or multistage approach during fenestrated-branched endovascular aortic repair (FB-EVAR) of extensive thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysms (TAAAs). Methods: We reviewed the clinical data of consecutive patients treated by FB-EVAR for extent I to III TAAAs in 24 centers (2006-2021). All patients received a single brand manufactured patient-specific or off-the-shelf fenestrated-branched stent grafts. Staging strategies included proximal thoracic aortic repair, minimally invasive segmental artery coil embolization, temporary aneurysm sac perfusion and combinations of these techniques. Endpoints were analyzed for elective repair in patients who had a single- or multistage approach before and after propensity score adjustment for baseline differences, including the composite 30-day/in-hospital mortality and/or permanent paraplegia, major adverse event, patient survival, and freedom from aortic-related mortality. Results: A total of 1947 patients (65% male; mean age, 71 ± 8 years) underwent FB-EVAR of 155 extent I (10%), 729 extent II (46%), and 713 extent III TAAAs (44%). A single-stage approach was used in 939 patients (48%) and a multistage approach in 1008 patients (52%). A multistage approach was more frequently used in patients undergoing elective compared with non-elective repair (55% vs 35%; P < .001). Staging strategies were proximal thoracic aortic repair in 743 patients (74%), temporary aneurysm sac perfusion in 128 (13%), minimally invasive segmental artery coil embolization in 10 (1%), and combinations in 127 (12%). Among patients undergoing elective repair (n = 1597), the composite endpoint of 30-day/in-hospital mortality and/or permanent paraplegia rate occurred in 14% of single-stage and 6% of multistage approach patients (P < .001). After adjustment with a propensity score, multistage approach was associated with lower rates of 30-day/in-hospital mortality and/or permanent paraplegia (odds ratio, 0.466; 95% confidence interval, 0.271-0.801; P = .006) and higher patient survival at 1 year (86.9±1.3% vs 79.6±1.7%) and 3 years (72.7±2.1% vs 64.2±2.3%; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.714; 95% confidence interval, 0.528-0.966; P = .029), compared with a single stage approach. Conclusions: Staging elective FB-EVAR of extent I to III TAAAs was associated with decreased risk of mortality and/or permanent paraplegia at 30 days or within hospital stay, and with higher patient survival at 1 and 3 years

Epidemiology of influenza-associated hospitalization in adults, Toronto, 2007/8

The purpose of this investigation was to identify when diagnostic testing and empirical antiviral therapy should be considered for adult patients requiring hospitalization during influenza seasons. During the 2007/8 influenza season, six acute care hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area participated in active surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza requiring hospitalization. Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs were obtained from patients presenting with acute respiratory or cardiac illness, or with febrile illness without clear non-respiratory etiology. Predictors of influenza were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression analysis and likelihoods of influenza infection in various patient groups were calculated. Two hundred and eighty of 3,917 patients were found to have influenza. Thirty-five percent of patients with influenza presented with a triage temperature ≥38.0°C, 80% had respiratory symptoms in the emergency department, and 76% were ≥65 years old. Multivariable analysis revealed a triage temperature ≥38.0°C (odds ratio [OR] 3.1; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3–4.1), the presence of respiratory symptoms (OR 1.7; 95% CI 1.2–2.4), admission diagnosis of respiratory infection (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.3–2.4), admission diagnosis of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)/asthma or respiratory failure (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.6–3.4), and admission in peak influenza weeks (OR 4.2; 95% CI 3.1–5.7) as independent predictors of influenza. The likelihood of influenza exceeded 15% in patients with respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma if the triage temperature was ≥38.0°C or if they were admitted in the peak weeks during the influenza season. During influenza season, diagnostic testing and empiric antiviral therapy should be considered in patients requiring hospitalization if respiratory infection or exacerbation of COPD/asthma are suspected and if either the triage temperature is ≥38.0°C or admission is during the weeks of peak influenza activity

Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study

Background: Assessing the mortality impact of the 2009 influenza A H1N1 virus (H1N1pdm09) is essential for optimizing public health responses to future pandemics. The World Health Organization reported 18,631 laboratory-confirmed pandemic deaths, but the total pandemic mortality burden was substantially higher. We estimated the 2009 pandemic mortality burden through statistical modeling of mortality data from multiple countries. Methods and Findings: We obtained weekly virology and underlying cause-of-death mortality time series for 2005–2009 for 20 countries covering ~35% of the world population. We applied a multivariate linear regression model to estimate pandemic respiratory mortality in each collaborating country. We then used these results plus ten country indicators in a multiple imputation model to project the mortality burden in all world countries. Between 123,000 and 203,000 pandemic respiratory deaths were estimated globally for the last 9 mo of 2009. The majority (62%–85%) were attributed to persons under 65 y of age. We observed a striking regional heterogeneity, with almost 20-fold higher mortality in some countries in the Americas than in Europe. The model attributed 148,000–249,000 respiratory deaths to influenza in an average pre-pandemic season, with only 19% in person