Using mechanistic models to highlight research priorities for tick-borne zoonotic diseases: improving our understanding of the ecology and maintenance of Kyasanur forest disease in India

•Abstract: The risk of spillover of zoonotic diseases to humans is changing in response to multiple environmental and societal drivers, particularly in tropical regions where the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases is highest and land use change and forest conversion is occurring most rapidly. Neglected zoonotic diseases can have significant impacts on poor and marginalised populations in low-resource settings but ultimately receive less attention and funding for research and interventions. As such, effective control measures and interventions are often hindered by a limited ecological evidence base, which results in a limited understanding of epidemiologically relevant hosts or vectors and the processes that contribute to the maintenance of pathogens and spillover to humans. Here, we develop a generalisable next generation matrix modelling framework to better understand the transmission processes and hosts that have the greatest contribution to the maintenance of tick-borne diseases with the aim of improving the ecological evidence base and framing future research priorities for tick-borne diseases. Using this model we explore the relative contribution of different host groups and transmission routes to the maintenance of a neglected zoonotic tick-borne disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFD), in multiple habitat types. The results highlight the potential importance of transovarial transmission and small mammals and birds in maintaining this disease. This contradicts previous hypotheses that primates play an important role influencing the distribution of infected ticks. There is also a suggestion that risk could vary across different habitat types but currently more research is needed to evaluate this relationship. In light of these results, we outline the key knowledge gaps for this system and future research priorities that could inform effective interventions and control measures. •Author summary: The risk of humans contracting zoonotic diseases (diseases passed from animals to humans) is being altered by changes in the environment. These changes are occurring rapidly in tropical areas, which are burdened with neglected diseases that often disproportionately affect poorer communities. These diseases generally receive little attention and are less well studied. This means we often have a limited understanding of the ecological processes that influence the risk of people catching zoonotic diseases, which can be crucial in designing effective interventions. In this study, we developed mathematical models to highlight the ecological processes that influence the maintenance of Kyasanur Forest Disease, a neglected zoonotic disease affecting people in India. Using this approach, we were able to determine the hosts and forms of transmission that are most likely to play important roles in maintaining this pathogen and understand how risk to humans might vary in different habitats. We were also able to highlight key knowledge gaps and future research priorities that would help to inform interventions. An additional benefit of this approach is that it can also be used for other tick-borne diseases to help understand how pathogens are maintained and to prioritise the research questions that need to be addressed in other disease systems

Uncovering mechanisms behind mosquito seasonality by integrating mathematical models and daily empirical population data: Culex pipiens in the UK

Background: Many mosquito-borne diseases exhibit substantial seasonality, due to strong links between environmental variables and vector and pathogen life-cycles. Further, a range of density-dependent and density-independent biotic and abiotic processes affect the phenology of mosquito populations, with potentially large knock-on effects for vector dynamics and disease transmission. Whilst it is understood that density-independent and density-dependent processes affect seasonal population levels, it is not clear how these interact temporally to shape the population peaks and troughs. Due to this, the paucity of high-resolution data for validation, and the difficulty of parameterizing density-dependent processes, models of vector dynamics may poorly estimate abundances, which has knock-on effects for our ability predict vector-borne disease outbreaks. Results: We present a rich dataset describing seasonal abundance patterns of each life stage of Culex pipiens, a widespread vector of West Nile virus, at a field site in southern England in 2015. Abundance of immature stages was measured three times per week, whilst adult traps were run four nights each week. This dataset is integrated with an existing delay-differential equation model predicting Cx. pipiens seasonal abundance to improve understanding of observed seasonal abundance patterns. At our field site, the outcome of our model fitting suggests interspecific predation on mosquito larvae and temperature-dependent larval mortality combine to act as the main sources of population regulation throughout the active season, whilst competition for resources is a relatively small source of larval mortality. Conclusions: The model suggests that density-independent mortality and interspecific predation interact to shape patterns of mosquito seasonal abundance in a permanent aquatic habitat and we propose that competition for resources is likely to be important where periods of high rainfall create transient habitats. Further, we highlight the importance of challenging population abundance models with data from across all life stages of the species of interest if reliable inferences are to be drawn from these models, particularly when considering mosquito control and vector-borne disease transmission

Structures of atypical chemokine receptor 3 reveal the basis for its promiscuity and signaling bias

Both CXC chemokine receptor 4 (CXCR4) and atypical chemokine receptor 3 (ACKR3) are activated by the chemokine CXCL12 yet evoke distinct cellular responses. CXCR4 is a canonical G protein–coupled receptor (GPCR), whereas ACKR3 is intrinsically biased for arrestin. The molecular basis for this difference is not understood. Here, we describe cryo-EM structures of ACKR3 in complex with CXCL12, a more potent CXCL12 variant, and a small-molecule agonist. The bound chemokines adopt an unexpected pose relative to those established for CXCR4 and observed in other receptor-chemokine complexes. Along with functional studies, these structures provide insight into the ligand-binding promiscuity of ACKR3, why it fails to couple to G proteins, and its bias toward β-arrestin. The results lay the groundwork for understanding the physiological interplay of ACKR3 with other GPCRs

A call to arms: setting the framework for a code of practice for mosquito management in European wetlands

1. Wetlands provide multiple services to human societies. Despite policies dedicated to their protection, current European policies do not address the need to balance mosquito management approaches to mitigate dis‐services to human health and well‐being while ensuring that wetland conservation goals are met. 2. Herein, we outline criteria for consideration when developing mosquito control programmes in European wetlands that will allow managers and public health authorities to adopt effective and ecologically sound approaches. 3. Synthesis and applications . The proposed code of practice provides practical advice to local authorities and those involved in mosquito control in order to design an integrated mosquito management strategy that aligns with current environmental legislation. Although this code of practice was developed by European experts, it is transferable to other geographical contexts, integrating the expertise and knowledge of local stakeholders and researchers from the fields of medical entomology, human and animal health and ecology

Predicting disease risk areas through co-production of spatial models: the example of Kyasanur Forest Disease in India’s forest landscapes

Zoonotic diseases affect resource-poor tropical communities disproportionately, and are linked to human use and modification of ecosystems. Disentangling the socio-ecological mechanisms by which ecosystem change precipitates impacts of pathogens is critical for predicting disease risk and designing effective intervention strategies. Despite the global “One Health” initiative, predictive models for tropical zoonotic diseases often focus on narrow ranges of risk factors and are rarely scaled to intervention programs and ecosystem use. This study uses a participatory, co-production approach to address this disconnect between science, policy and implementation, by developing more informative disease models for a fatal tick-borne viral haemorrhagic disease, Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD), that is spreading across degraded forest ecosystems in India. We integrated knowledge across disciplines to identify key risk factors and needs with actors and beneficiaries across the relevant policy sectors, to understand disease patterns and develop decision support tools. Human case locations (2014–2018) and spatial machine learning quantified the relative role of risk factors, including forest cover and loss, host densities and public health access, in driving landscape-scale disease patterns in a long-affected district (Shivamogga, Karnataka State). Models combining forest metrics, livestock densities and elevation accurately predicted spatial patterns in human KFD cases (2014–2018). Consistent with suggestions that KFD is an “ecotonal” disease, landscapes at higher risk for human KFD contained diverse forest-plantation mosaics with high coverage of moist evergreen forest and plantation, high indigenous cattle density, and low coverage of dry deciduous forest. Models predicted new hotspots of outbreaks in 2019, indicating their value for spatial targeting of intervention. Co-production was vital for: gathering outbreak data that reflected locations of exposure in the landscape; better understanding contextual socio-ecological risk factors; and tailoring the spatial grain and outputs to the scale of forest use, and public health interventions. We argue this inter-disciplinary approach to risk prediction is applicable across zoonotic diseases in tropical settings

Biogeochemical and climate drivers of wetland phosphorus and nitrogen release: implications for nutrient legacies and eutrophication risk

The dynamics and processes of nutrient cycling and release were examined for a lowland wetland‐pond system, draining woodland in southern England. Hydrochemical and meteorological data were analyzed from 1997 to 2017, along with high‐resolution in situ sensor measurements from 2016 to 2017. The results showed that even a relatively pristine wetland can become a source of highly bioavailable phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), and silicon (Si) during low‐flow periods of high ecological sensitivity. The drivers of nutrient release were primary production and accumulation of biomass, which provided a carbon (C) source for microbial respiration and, via mineralization, a source of bioavailable nutrients for P and N co‐limited microorganisms. During high‐intensity nutrient release events, the dominant N‐cycling process switched from denitrification to nitrate ammonification, and a positive feedback cycle of P and N release was sustained over several months during summer and fall. Temperature controls on microbial activity were the primary drivers of short‐term (day‐to‐day) variability in P release, with subdaily (diurnal) fluctuations in P concentrations driven by water body metabolism. Interannual relationships between nutrient release and climate variables indicated “memory” effects of antecedent climate drivers through accumulated legacy organic matter from the previous year's biomass production. Natural flood management initiatives promote the use of wetlands as “nature‐based solutions” in climate change adaptation, flood management, and soil and water conservation. This study highlights potential water quality trade‐offs and shows how the convergence of climate and biogeochemical drivers of wetland nutrient release can amplify background nutrient signals by mobilizing legacy nutrients, causing water quality impairment and accelerating eutrophication risk

Conduct disorder in girls: neighborhoods, family characteristics, and parenting behaviors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Little is known about the social context of girls with conduct disorder (CD), a question of increasing importance to clinicians and researchers. The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between three social context domains (neighborhood, family characteristics, and parenting behaviors) and CD in adolescent girls, additionally testing for race moderation effects. We predicted that disadvantaged neighborhoods, family characteristics such as parental marital status, and parenting behaviors such as negative discipline would characterize girls with CD. We also hypothesized that parenting behaviors would mediate the associations between neighborhood and family characteristics and CD.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We recruited 93 15–17 year-old girls from the community and used a structured psychiatric interview to assign participants to a CD group (n = 52) or a demographically matched group with no psychiatric disorder (n = 41). Each girl and parent also filled out questionnaires about neighborhood, family characteristics, and parenting behaviors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Neighborhood quality was not associated with CD in girls. Some family characteristics (parental antisociality) and parenting behaviors (levels of family activities and negative discipline) were characteristic of girls with CD, but notll. There was no moderation by race. Our hypothesis that the association between family characteristics and CD would be mediated by parenting behaviors was not supported.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study expanded upon previous research by investigating multiple social context domains in girls with CD and by selecting a comparison group who were not different in age, social class, or race. When these factors are thus controlled, CD in adolescent girls is not significantly associated with neighborhood, but is associated with some family characteristics and some types of parental behaviors. However, the mechanisms underlying these relationships need to be further investigated. We discuss possible explanations for our findings and suggest directions for future research.</p

Effect of Iron Therapy on Platelet Counts in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease-Associated Anemia

Secondary thrombocytosis is a clinical feature of unknown significance. In inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), thrombocytosis is considered a marker of active disease; however, iron deficiency itself may trigger platelet generation. In this study we tested the effect of iron therapy on platelet counts in patients with IBD-associated anemia.Platelet counts were analyzed before and after iron therapy from four prospective clinical trials. Further, changes in hemoglobin, transferrin saturation, ferritin, C-reactive protein, and leukocyte counts, before and after iron therapy were compared. In a subgroup the effect of erythropoietin treatment was tested. The results were confirmed in a large independent cohort (FERGIcor).A total of 308 patient records were available for the initial analysis. A dose-depended drop in platelet counts (mean 425 G/L to 320 G/L; p<0.001) was found regardless of the type of iron preparation (iron sulphate, iron sucrose, or ferric carboxymaltose). Concomitant erythropoietin therapy as well as parameters of inflammation (leukocyte counts, C-reactive protein) had no effect on the change in platelet counts. This effect of iron therapy on platelets was confirmed in the FERGIcor study cohort (n=448, mean platelet counts before iron therapy: 383 G/L, after: 310 G/L, p<0.001).Iron therapy normalizes elevated platelet counts in patients with IBD-associated anemia. Thus, iron deficiency is an important pathogenetic mechanism of secondary thrombocytosis in IBD

The tree that hides the forest : cryptic diversity and phylogenetic relationships in the Palaearctic vector Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) at the European level

Correction: Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Article Number: 483 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-020-04349-yBackgroundCulicoides obsoletus is an abundant and widely distributed Holarctic biting midge species, involved in the transmission of bluetongue virus (BTV) and Schmallenberg virus (SBV) to wild and domestic ruminants. Females of this vector species are often reported jointly with two morphologically very close species, C. scoticus and C. montanus, forming the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex. Recently, cryptic diversity within C. obsoletus was reported in geographically distant sites. Clear delineation of species and characterization of genetic variability is mandatory to revise their taxonomic status and assess the vector role of each taxonomic entity. Our objectives were to characterize and map the cryptic diversity within the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex.MethodsPortion of the cox1 mitochondrial gene of 3763 individuals belonging to the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex was sequenced. Populations from 20 countries along a Palaearctic Mediterranean transect covering Scandinavia to Canary islands (North to South) and Canary islands to Turkey (West to East) were included. Genetic diversity based on cox1 barcoding was supported by 16S rDNA mitochondrial gene sequences and a gene coding for ribosomal 28S rDNA. Species delimitation using a multi-marker methodology was used to revise the current taxonomic scheme of the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex.ResultsOur analysis showed the existence of three phylogenetic clades (C. obsoletus clade O2, C. obsoletus clade dark and one not yet named and identified) within C. obsoletus. These analyses also revealed two intra-specific clades within C. scoticus and raised questions about the taxonomic status of C. montanus.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, our study provides the first genetic characterization of the Obsoletus/Scoticus Complex on a large geographical scale and allows a revision of the current taxonomic classification for an important group of vector species of livestock viruses in the Palaearctic region.Peer reviewe

Co-production of knowledge as part of a OneHealth approach to better control zoonotic diseases

There is increased global and national attention on the need for effective strategies to control zoonotic diseases. Quick, effective action is, however, hampered by poor evidence-bases and limited coordination between stakeholders from relevant sectors such as public and animal health, wildlife and forestry sectors at different scales, who may not usually work together. The OneHealth approach recognises the value of cross-sectoral evaluation of human, animal and environmental health questions in an integrated, holistic and transdisciplinary manner to reduce disease impacts and/or mitigate risks. Co-production of knowledge is also widely advocated to improve the quality and acceptability of decision-making across sectors and may be particularly important when it comes to zoonoses. This paper brings together OneHealth and knowledge co-production and reflects on lessons learned for future OneHealth co-production processes by describing a process implemented to understand spill-over and identify disease control and mitigation strategies for a zoonotic disease in Southern India (Kyasanur Forest Disease). The co-production process aimed to develop a joint decision-support tool with stakeholders, and we complemented our approach with a simple retrospective theory of change on researcher expectations of the system-level outcomes of the co-production process. Our results highlight that while co-production in OneHealth is a difficult and resource intensive process, requiring regular iterative adjustments and flexibility, the beneficial outcomes justify its adoption. A key future aim should be to improve and evaluate the degree of inter-sectoral collaboration required to achieve the aims of OneHealth. We conclude by providing guidelines based on our experience to help funders and decision-makers support future co-production processes