Delayed Sampling and Automatic Rao-Blackwellization of Probabilistic Programs

We introduce a dynamic mechanism for the solution of analytically-tractable substructure in probabilistic programs, using conjugate priors and affine transformations to reduce variance in Monte Carlo estimators. For inference with Sequential Monte Carlo, this automatically yields improvements such as locally-optimal proposals and Rao-Blackwellization. The mechanism maintains a directed graph alongside the running program that evolves dynamically as operations are triggered upon it. Nodes of the graph represent random variables, edges the analytically-tractable relationships between them. Random variables remain in the graph for as long as possible, to be sampled only when they are used by the program in a way that cannot be resolved analytically. In the meantime, they are conditioned on as many observations as possible. We demonstrate the mechanism with a few pedagogical examples, as well as a linear-nonlinear state-space model with simulated data, and an epidemiological model with real data of a dengue outbreak in Micronesia. In all cases one or more variables are automatically marginalized out to significantly reduce variance in estimates of the marginal likelihood, in the final case facilitating a random-weight or pseudo-marginal-type importance sampler for parameter estimation. We have implemented the approach in Anglican and a new probabilistic programming language called Birch.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Enhancing Tc in field-doped Fullerenes by applying uniaxial stress

Capitalizing on the two-dimensional nature of superconductivity in field-effect doped C60, we show that it should be possible to increase the transition temperature Tc by applying uniaxial stress perpendicular to the gate electrode. This method not only holds the promise of substantially enhancing Tc (by about 30 K per GPa), but also provides a sensitive check of the current understanding of superconductivity in the doped Fullerenes.Comment: 3 pages RevTe

Interpersonal Change During Inpatient CBASP Treatment: Focus on Group Therapy

Background: The Cognitive Behavioral Analysis System of Psychotherapy (CBASP) has been tailored specifically to the demands of patients with persistent depressive disorder (PDD). According to the CBASP model, PDD patients are supposed to live perceptually disconnected from their social environment, which consequently maintains depression. While initially developed as an individual treatment modality, the adaptation for group therapy yields an important interpersonal space. However, little is known about the specific factors that contribute to patients' benefit from the CBASP group modality. Methods: The analyzed sample comprised N = 87 PDD patients who completed a 12 week multimodal inpatient treatment including 2 weekly CBASP-specific individual and group sessions, respectively, as well as CBASP-unspecific medical contacts, pharmacotherapy and complementary therapies. Group sessions included trainings in situational analysis and interpersonal skills. Interpersonal change over therapy was examined based on the patients' self-perceived interpersonal problems (IIP) and the impact messages as perceived by their individual therapists (IMI). Pre and post-treatment data were compared using within-sample t-tests. Additionally, patients evaluated CBASP group therapy on a feedback form. They were invited to reflect on individual benefits and its helpful and unhelpful aspects. Qualitative content analysis with inductive category development was used to analyze feedback. Inter-rater reliability was computed to confirm categories before summarizing the frequencies of reported factors. Results: Self-perceived interpersonal distress significantly decreased over therapy. Patients reported reduced interpersonal problems and therapists reported more friendly and dominant impact messages. Interestingly, patients who showed a significant depressive symptom reduction described higher change scores. Regarding qualitative data, patients reported five main benefits from group therapy: Gain in social competence, self-confidence, self-reflection, interpersonal dynamics, and optimism/universality. Patients responding to CBASP identified significantly more factors than non-responders. Conclusions: Compared to studies with individual CBASP only, the present findings suggest that CBASP group therapy may contribute to the improvement of interpersonal behavior. Group therapy is discussed as a potential boosting effect for individual CBASP. However, as the present data were collected in a multimodal inpatient setting without competitor, randomized controlled trials are warranted that investigate the specific benefits of the group modality or the combined individual and group therapy over individual CBASP only

When grassroots innovation movements encounter mainstream institutions: implications for models of inclusive innovation

Grassroots innovation movements (GIMs) can be regarded as initiators or advocates of alternative pathways of innovation. Sometimes these movements engage with more established science, technology and innovation (STI) institutions and development agencies in pursuit of their goals. In this paper, we argue that an important aspect to encounters between GIMs and mainstream STI institutions is the negotiation of different framings of grassroots innovation and development of policy models for inclusive innovation. These encounters can result in two different modes of engagement by GIMs; what we call insertion and mobilization. We illustrate and discuss these interrelated notions of framings and modes of engagement by drawing on three case studies of GIMs: the Social Technologies Network in Brazil, and the Honey Bee Network and People's Science Movements in India. The cases highlight that inclusion in the context of GIMs is not an unproblematic, smooth endeavour, and involves diverse interpretations and framings, which shape what and who gets included or excluded. Within the context of increasing policy interest, the analysis of encounters between GIMs and STI institutions can offer important lessons for the design of models of inclusive innovation and development

Беларусь – Туркменистан: инвестиционные возможности стран-партнеров

Материалы XV Междунар. науч.-техн. конф. студентов, аспирантов и молодых ученых, Гомель, 23–24 апр. 2015 г

Crystal Structures and Electronic Properties of Haloform-Intercalated C60

Using density functional methods we calculated structural and electronic properties of bulk chloroform and bromoform intercalated C60, C60 2CHX3 (X=Cl,Br). Both compounds are narrow band insulator materials with a gap between valence and conduction bands larger than 1 eV. The calculated widths of the valence and conduction bands are 0.4-0.6 eV and 0.3-0.4 eV, respectively. The orbitals of the haloform molecules overlap with the $\pi$ orbitals of the fullerene molecules and the p-type orbitals of halogen atoms significantly contribute to the valence and conduction bands of C60 2CHX3. Charging with electrons and holes turns the systems to metals. Contrary to expectation, 10 to 20 % of the charge is on the haloform molecules and is thus not completely localized on the fullerene molecules. Calculations on different crystal structures of C60 2CHCl3 and C60 2CHBr3 revealed that the density of states at the Fermi energy are sensitive to the orientation of the haloform and C60 molecules. At a charging of three holes, which corresponds to the superconducting phase of pure C60 and C60 2CHX3, the calculated density of states (DOS) at the Fermi energy increases in the sequence DOS(C60) < DOS(C60 2CHCl3) < DOS(C60 2CHBr3).Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, 4 table

Exploring taboo issues in professional sport through a fictional approach

While the need to consider life course issues in elite sport research and practice is increasingly recognised, some experiences still seem to be considered too dangerous to explore. Consequently, stories of these experiences are silenced and the ethical and moral questions they pose fail to be acknowledged, understood or debated. This paper presents an ethnographic fiction through which we explore a sensitive set of experiences that were uncovered during our research with professional sportspeople. Through a multi‐layered reconstruction, the story reveals the complex, but significant, relationships that exist between identity, cultural narratives and embodied experiences. After the telling we consider how the story has stimulated reflective practice among students, researchers and practitioners. While there are risks involved in writing and sharing taboo stories, the feedback we have received suggests that storytelling can be an effective pedagogical tool in education and professional development

Hemodynamic mechanisms underlying prolonged post-faint hypotension

During hypotension induced by tilt-table testing, low presyncopal blood pressure (BP) usually recovers within 1 min after tilt back. However, in some patients prolonged post faint hypotension (PPFH) is observed. We assessed the hemodynamics underlying PPFH in a retrospective study. Seven patients (2 females, aged 31-72 years) experiencing PPFH were studied. PPFH was defined as a systolic BP below 85 mmHg for at least 2 min after tilt back. In 6 out of 7 presyncope was provoked by 0.4 mg sublingual NTG, administered in the 60° head-up tilt position following head-up tilt for 20 min. Continuous BP was monitored and stroke volume (SV) was computed from pressure pulsations. Cardiac output (CO) was calculated from SV × heart rate (HR); and total peripheral resistance (TPR) from mean BP/CO. Left ventricular contractility was estimated by dP/dt (max) of finger pressure pulse. Systolic BP (SYS), diastolic BP (DIAS) and HR during PPFH were lower compared to baseline: SYS 75 ± 14 versus 121 ± 18 mmHg, DIAS 49 ± 9 versus 71 ± 9 mmHg and HR 52 ± 14 versus 67 ± 12 beats/min (p < 0.05). Marked hypotension was associated with a 47% fall in CO 3.1 ± 0.6 versus 5.9 ± 1.3 L/min (p < 0.05) and decreases in dP/dt, 277 ± 77 versus 759 ± 160 mmHg/s (p < 0.05). The difference in TPR was not significant 1.1 ± 0.3 versus 1.0 ± 0.3 MU (p = 0.229). In four patients, we attempted to treat PPFH by 30° head-down tilt. This intervention increased SYS only slightly (to 89 ± 12 mmHg). PPFH seems to be mediated by severe cardiac depressio

Examiner training: A study of examiners making sense of norm-referenced feedback

PURPOSE: Examiner training has an inconsistent impact on subsequent performance. To understand this variation, we explored how examiners think about changing the way they assess. METHOD: We provided comparative data to 17 experienced examiners about their assessments, captured their sense-making processes using a modified think-aloud protocol, and identified patterns by inductive thematic analysis. RESULTS: We observed five sense-making processes: (1) testing personal relevance (2) interpretation (3) attribution (4) considering the need for change, and (5) considering the nature of change. Three observed meta-themes describe the manner of examiners' thinking: Guarded curiosity - where examiners expressed curiosity over how their judgments compared with others', but they also expressed guardedness about the relevance of the comparisons; Dysfunctional assimilation - where examiners' interpretation and attribution exhibited cognitive anchoring, personalization, and affective bias; Moderated conservatism - where examiners expressed openness to change, but also loyalty to their judgment-framing values and aphorisms. CONCLUSIONS: Our examiners engaged in complex processes as they considered changing their assessments. The 'stabilising' mechanisms some used resembled learners assimilating educational feedback. If these are typical examiner responses, they may well explain the variable impact of examiner training, and have significant implications for the pursuit of meaningful and defensible judgment-based assessment