Self-Organized Dynamics of Power Grids: Smart Grids, Fluctuations and Cascades

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues of our time and mitigating it requires a reduction of CO2 emissions. A big step towards achieving this goal is increasing the share of renewable energy sources, as the energy sector currently contributes 35% to all greenhouse gas emissions. However, integrating these renewable energy sources challenges the current power system in two major ways. Firstly, renewable generation consists of more spatially distributed and smaller power plants than conventional generation by nuclear or coal plants, questioning the established hierarchical structures and demanding a new grid design. Restructuring becomes necessary because wind and solar plants have to be placed at favorable sites, e.g., close to coasts in the case of wind. Secondly, renewables do not provide a deterministic and controllable power output but introduce power fluctuations that have to be controlled adequately. Many solutions to these challenges are build on the concept of smart grids, which require an extensive information technology (IT) infrastructure communicating between consumers and generators to coordinate efficient actions. However, an intertwined power and IT system raises great privacy and security concerns. Is it possible to forgo a large IT infrastructure in future power grids and instead operate them purely based on local information? How would such a decentrally organized system work? What is the impact of fluctuation on short time scales on the dynamical stability? Which grid topologies are robust against random failures or targeted attacks? This thesis aims to establish a framework of such a self-organized dynamics of a power grid, analyzing its benefits and limitations with respect to fluctuations and discrete events. Instead of a centrally monitored and controlled smart grid, we propose the concept of Decentral Smart Grid Control, translating local power grid frequency information into actions to stabilize the grid. This is not limited to power generators but applies equally to consumers, naturally introducing a demand response. We analyze the dynamical stability properties of this framework using linear stability methods as well as applying numerical simulations to determine the size of the basin of attraction. To do so, we investigate general stability effects and sample network motifs to find that this self-organized grid dynamics is stable for large parameter regimes. However, when the actors of the power grid react to a frequency signal, this reaction has to be sufficiently fast since reaction delays are shown to destabilize the grid. We derive expressions for a maximum delay, which always desynchronizes the system based on a rebound effect, and for destabilizing delays based on resonance effects. These resonance instabilities are cured when the frequency signal is averaged over a few seconds (low-pass filter). Overall, we propose an alternative smart grid model without any IT infrastructure and analyze its stable operating space. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of fluctuations on the power grid. First, we determine the escape time of the grid, i.e., the time until the grid desynchronizes when subject to stochastic perturbations. We simulate these events and derive an analytical expression using Kramer's method, obtaining the scaling of the escape time as a function of the grid inertia, transmitted power, damping etc. Thereby, we identify weak links in networks, which have to be enhanced to guarantee a stable operation. Second, we collect power grid frequency measurements from different regions across the world and evaluate their statistical properties. Distributions are found to be heavy-tailed so that large disturbances are more common than predicted by Gaussian statistics. We model the grid dynamics using a stochastic differential equation to derive the scaling of the fluctuations based on power grid parameters, identifying effective damping as essential in reducing fluctuation risks. This damping may be provided by increased demand control as proposed by Decentral Smart Grid Control. Finally, we investigate discrete events, in particular the failure of a single transmission line, as a complementary form of disturbances. An initial failure of a transmission line leads to additional load on other lines, potentially overloading them and thereby causing secondary outages. Hence, a cascade of failures is induced that propagated through the network, resulting in a large-scale blackout. We investigate these cascades in a combined dynamical and event-driven framework, which includes transient dynamics, in contrast to the often used steady state analysis that only solves static flows in the grid while neglecting any dynamics. Concluding, we identify critical lines, prone to cause cascades when failing, and observe a nearly constant speed of the propagation of the cascade in an appropriate metric. Overall, we investigate the self-organized dynamics of power grids, demonstrating its benefits and limitations. We provide tools to improve current grid operation and outline a smart grid solution that is not reliant on IT. Thereby, we support establishing a 100% renewable energy system

Taming Instabilities in Power Grid Networks by Decentralized Control

Renewables will soon dominate energy production in our electric power system. And yet, how to integrate renewable energy into the grid and the market is still a subject of major debate. Decentral Smart Grid Control (DSGC) was recently proposed as a robust and decentralized approach to balance supply and demand and to guarantee a grid operation that is both economically and dynamically feasible. Here, we analyze the impact of network topology by assessing the stability of essential network motifs using both linear stability analysis and basin volume for delay systems. Our results indicate that if frequency measurements are averaged over sufficiently large time intervals, DSGC enhances the stability of extended power grid systems. We further investigate whether DSGC supports centralized and/or decentralized power production and find it to be applicable to both. However, our results on cycle-like systems suggest that DSGC favors systems with decentralized production. Here, lower line capacities and lower averaging times are required compared to those with centralized production.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures This is a pre-print of a manuscript submitted to The European Physical Journal. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50136-

Kooperationen für eine nachhaltige Hühnerhaltung

Cooperation is an important function in innovation processes for sustainable land management. Against this background the paper analyses the cooperation in three German case studies of ethical organic poultry production and compares their cooperation. The analysis reveals a tension between two rival goals of cooperation animal welfare versus economic performance

Secondary control activation analysed and predicted with explainable AI

The transition to a renewable energy system poses challenges for power grid operation and stability. Secondary control is key in restoring the power system to its reference following a disturbance. Underestimating the necessary control capacity may require emergency measures, such as load shedding. Hence, a solid understanding of the emerging risks and the driving factors of control is needed. In this contribution, we establish an explainable machine learning model for the activation of secondary control power in Germany. Training gradient boosted trees, we obtain an accurate description of control activation. Using SHapely Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values, we investigate the dependency between control activation and external features such as the generation mix, forecasting errors, and electricity market data. Thereby, our analysis reveals drivers that lead to high reserve requirements in the German power system. Our transparent approach, utilizing open data and making machine learning models interpretable, opens new scientific discovery avenues.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Baryonic and mesonic 3-point functions with open spin indices

We have implemented a new way of computing three-point correlation functions. It is based on a factorization of the entire correlation function into two parts which are evaluated with open spin- (and to some extent flavor-) indices. This allows us to estimate the two contributions simultaneously for many different initial and final states and momenta, with little computational overhead. We explain this factorization as well as its efficient implementation in a new library which has been written to provide the necessary functionality on modern parallel architectures and on CPUs, including Intel's Xeon Phi series.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, Proceedings of Lattice 201

Was trägt die Biobranche zu „Zukunftsfähigem Wohlstand“ in Berlin-Brandenburg bei?

Enterprises of the organic food sector contribute in various ways to sustainable devel-opment, wealth, and quality of life in their region. We present a preliminary description and evaluation of these multi-dimensional effects (telephone interviews with directors of 58 enterprises) and the institutional framework conditions of the organic food sector in the region of Berlin and Brandenburg in north-east Germany