Bayesian inference for marginal models under equality and inequality constraints

We develop a Bayesian framework for making inference on a class of marginal models for categorical variables, which is formulated through equality and/or inequality constraints on generalized logits, generalized log-odds ratios and similar higher-order interactions. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used for parameters estimation and for computing the Bayes factor between competing models. The approach is illustrated through the application to a well-known dataset on social mobility

Testing for positive association in contingency tables with fixed margins

An exact conditional approach is developed to test for certain forms of positive association between two ordinal variables (e.g. positive quadrant dependence, total positivity of order 2). The approach is based on the use of a test statistic measuring the goodness-of-(t of the model formulated according to the type of positive association of interest. The nuisance parameters, corresponding to the marginal distributions of the two variables, are eliminated by conditioning the inference on the observed margins. This, in turn, allows to remove the uncertainty on the conclusion of the test, which typically arises in the unconditional context where the null distribution of the test statistic depends on such parameters. Since the multivariate generalized hypergeometric distribution, which results from conditioning, is normally intractable, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the constrained model. The Pearson\u2019s chi-squared statistics is used as a test statistic; a p-value forthis statistic is computed through simulation, when the data are sparse, or exploiting the asymptotic theory based on the chi-bar squared distribution. The extension of the present approach to deal with bivariate contingency tables, strati(ed according to one or more explanatory discrete variables, is also outlined. Finally, three applications based on real data are presented

The use of mixtures for dealing with non-normal regression errors

In many situations, the distribution of the error terms of a linear regression model departs significantly from normality. It is shown, through a simulation study, that an effective strategy to deal with these situations is fitting a regression model based on the assumption that the error terms follow a mixture of normal distributions. The main advantage, with respect to the usual approach based on the least-squares method is a greater precision of the parameter estimates and confidence intervals. For the parameter estimation we make use of the EM algorithm, while confidence intervals are constructed through a bootstrap method

A nonparametric multidimensional latent class IRT model in a Bayesian framework

We propose a nonparametric Item Response Theory model for dichotomously scored items in a Bayesian framework. Partitions of the items are defined on the basis of inequality constraints among the latent class success probabilities. A Reversible Jump type algorithm is described for sampling from the posterior distribution. A consequence is the possibility to make inference on the number of dimensions (i.e., number of groups of items measuring the same latent trait) and to cluster items when unidimensionality is violated

The First Vega Ride-Share Mission Flight

The first European ride-share mission will be carried out by the Vega launch system in September 2019. The VEGA PoC (Proof of Concept) flight using the SSMS (Small Satellite Mission Service) hardware was conceived in the context of ESA LLL Initiative. This paper reports on the highlights of the preparation of the first European rideshare mission with Vega launcher and on the development of the related launch system. Based on Vega flights accumulated experience, the development of multi-Payload mission concept started from analysis of the activities currently foreseen to fly a single payload mission adapted to the needs of multi payload rideshare missions. After evaluation of impacts in terms of technical feasibility, missioning schedule and related programmatic and cost elements for the missioning of the Light Sats launch service, the implementation phase was initiated and description of its major tasks is the focus of this paper. The described hardware development and processes to reach SSMS PoC flight using the Vega launch system, are the first step towards the ultimate goal of a finally optimized process for Light Sats ride-share missions applicable to all European launchers

Chronic treatment with statins increases the availability of selenium in the antioxidant defence systems of hemodialysis patients.

Project. Oxidative stress (OS) is enhanced in hemodialysis (HD) patients. Lipid peroxidation and oxidative damage to glycids, proteins and nucleic acids are main consequences of OS and are associated to increased cardiovascular risk. Vitamin E and Glutathione Peroxidase (GSH-Px) represent main antioxidant systems in human cells. Selenium (Se), bound to the active sites of GSH-Px, plays a critical role in this antioxidant defense system. Statins are widely used and extensively investigated in the prevention of cardiovascular disease, notably in high-risk subjects. Several studies suggest that statins show antioxidant effects, protecting low-density lipoproteins from oxidation. Aim of our study was to compare serum Se concentration in ESRD patients on maintenance HD and in homogeneous healthy subjects and to investigate whether chronic assumption of statins may interfere with serum Se concentration in HD patients. Procedure. A total of 103 HD patients and 69 healthy subjects were enrolled; HD patients were then divided into patients who were not treated with statins (group A) and patients who assumed statins since six months at least (group B). Serum Se was determined by atomic absorption spectrometry. Results. Serum Se was significantly lower in HD patients of group A compared to healthy subjects (81.65±19.66mcg/L Vs. 96.47±15.62mcg/L, p<0.0040). However, in HD patients who assumed statins serum Se was significantly higher than in HD patients who did not. (111.83±18.82mcg/L Vs. 81.65±19.66mcg/L, p<0.0001). Conclusions. our results suggest that in HD patients chronic assumption of statins is related to a higher availability of active antioxidant agents and to reduced oxidative stress

The economics of debt clearing mechanisms

We examine the evolution of decentralized clearinghouse mechanisms from the 13th to the 18th century; in particular, we explore the clearing of non- or limitedtradable debts like bills of exchange. We construct a theoretical model of these clearinghouse mechanisms, similar to the models in the theoretical matching literature, and show that specific decentralized multilateral clearing algorithms known as rescontre, skontrieren or virement des parties used by merchants were efficient in specific historical contexts. We can explain both the evolutionary self-organizing emergence of late medieval and early modern fairs, and its robustness during the 17th and 18th century

The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio