Elderly Population with COVID-19 and the Accuracy of Clinical Scales and D-Dimer for Pulmonary Embolism: The OCTA-COVID Study

Background: Elderly COVID-19 patients have a high risk of pulmonary embolism (PE), but factors that predict PE are unknown in this population. This study assessed the Wells and revised Geneva scoring systems as predictors of PE and their relationships with D-dimer (DD) in this population. Methods: This was a longitudinal, observational study that included patients 75 years old with COVID-19 and suspected PE. The performances of theWells score, revised Geneva score and DD levels were assessed. The combinations of the DD level and the clinical scales were evaluated using positive rules for higher specificity. Results: Among 305 patients included in the OCTA-COVID study cohort, 50 had suspected PE based on computed tomography pulmonary arteriography (CTPA), and the prevalence was 5.6%. The frequencies of PE in the low-, intermediate- and high-probability categories were 5.9%, 88.2% and 5.9% for the Geneva model and 35.3%, 58.8% and 5.9% for the Wells model, respectively. The DD median was higher in the PE group (4.33 mg/L; interquartile range (IQR) 2.40–7.17) than in the no PE group (1.39 mg/L; IQR 1.01–2.75) (p < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for DD was 0.789 (0.652–0.927). After changing the cutoff point for DD to 4.33 mg/L, the specificity increased from 42.5% to 93.9%. Conclusions: The cutoff point DD > 4.33 mg/L has an increased specificity, which can discriminate false positives. The addition of the DD and the clinical probability scales increases the specificity and negative predictive value, which helps to avoid unnecessary invasive tests in this population

Seasonal rockfall risk analysis in a touristic island: Application to the Tramuntana Range (Mallorca, Spain)

Rockfalls are an ever-present possibility in the mountainous context of the Tramuntana Region (Mallorca, Spain). Recent events have shown the high potential for direct and indirect impact on the safety of people and economic activities, lasting for weeks or even months. In the present study, we start from a probabilistic assessment of the rockfall hazard (spatial propensity and temporal recurrence), based on a detailed historical record of occurrences and rockfall modelling, which is subsequently superimposed on three exposure scenarios and on a social vulnerability assessment. Exposure considers the floating population at three seasons of the year, given the area's high tourist aptitude. Vulnerability considers on the one hand the intrinsic characteristics of individuals and, on the other, the characteristics of the surrounding territory that act to facilitate emergency operations, mitigate the immediate impact and enhance rapid recovery. Due to the characteristics of the island and the spatial distribution of tourism, the results show that the highest density of rockfall trajectories potentially affect areas of high exposure, whose access by emergency services is complex. Not being, in general, the areas of highest individual criticality, those areas have in most situations low support capability installed or nearby. The results constitute a useful tool for emergency and risk management planning in multiple sectors linked to risk governance. Despite the high geographic detail of the analysis, these studies do not replace exposure and vulnerability analysis at the building level, for which the contribution of georeferenced Census data is fundamental

Predictive Factors of Pulmonary Embolism in Older Patients with SARS-CoV-2: The OCTA-COVID-19 Study

Background: The risk of pulmonary embolism (PE) has not been studied in older patients affected by COVID-19. We aimed to assess PE incidence and risk factors in a population of older patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Methods: An ambispective, observational cohort study. A total of 305 patients >= 75 years old had the SARS-CoV-2 infection from March to May 2020. The incidence rate of PE was estimated as the proportion of new cases within the whole sample. Youden's index was used to assess the cutoff point of D-dimer. To select factors associated with the risk of PE, time-to-event analyses were performed using cause-specific hazard models. Results: In total, 305 patients with a median age of 87 years (62.3% female) were studied; 67.9% were referred from nursing homes and 90.4% received any type of anticoagulation. A total of 64.9% showed frailty and 44% presented with dementia. The PE incidence was 5.6%. The cutoff value of a D-dimer level over 2.59 mg/L showed a sensitivity of 82.4% and specificity of 73.8% in discriminating a PE diagnosis. In the multivariate analysis, the factors associated with PE were previous oncological events and D-dimer levels. Conclusions: The PE incidence was 5.6%, and major risk factors for PE were oncological antecedents and increased plasma D-dimer levels.This work was partially supported by grants (to M.Q.-F., J.G.-P.) from the "New announcement for extraordinary initiative fund UAX-Santander COVID-19," Alfonso X el Sabio University

Research Group on Earth Observation, Geological Risks and Climate Change (OBTIER)

[EN] Within the framework of the IGME-CSIC Department of Geological Hazards and Climate Change, the OBTIER research group was created in July 2021 and currently has 22 members, including scientific and technical staff, as well as young people with contracts linked to competitive national and international research projects. The main objective of the group is to provide society with scientific information, methods, tools and solutions to mitigate the impact of geohazards and the effects of Climate Change. OBTIER is currently leading 6 competitive projects (4 European and 2 national), as well as several projects in agreement with other national and international administrations. It is an active member of the EuroGeoSurveys Earth Observation Expert Group and the ASGMI Geological Hazards Group. OBTIER offers society a wide range of capabilities on: earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, land subsidence, volcanic eruptions, droughts and floods. In 2021, the group published an article in Science entitled: Mapping the global threat of land subsidence with significant media coverage around the world.Peer reviewe

An Integration of UAV-Based Photogrammetry and 3D Modelling for Rockfall Hazard Assessment: The Cárcavos Case in 2018 (Spain)

An example of the combined use of UAV photogrammetry and rockfall numerical simulation is described. A case of fragmental rockfall occurred on 17 November 2018 in Cárcavos, a site located in the Spanish municipality of Ayna (Albacete). The event caused a great social alarm as some infrastructure was affected. By using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, a high-resolution 3D model has been generated from point cloud data, and distribution and size of the fragmented rocks (more than 600 boulders) determined. The analysis has been performed through numerical simulations to: (1) reproduce the paths followed by the real blocks; and (2) estimate the speed and energy of the blocks, together with their heights, impacts and stopping points. Accordingly, source areas have been identified, including the potential source areas and unstable blocks on the slope. In addition, the exposed elements at risk (buildings, facilities, infrastructures, etc.) have been identified, and the effectiveness of mitigation measures against future events evaluated

Integration of data acquired using SfM orthoimagery correlation techniques and satellite InSAR techniques for the calculation of 3D displacements in densely vegetated unstable slopes

[EN] Detecting and monitoring slope movements is essential to better understand their causes and mitigate their adverse consequences. Satellite radar interferometry (InSAR) techniques allow to generate deformation maps at high resolution (both spatial and temporal), especially since 2014, when the European Space Agency's Sentinel-1 mission (6-day revisit frequency) became operational. The application of InSAR is, however, constrained by a number of limitations. The main one relates to the inability of the technique to measure rapid deformation phenomena. In the case of Sentinel-1, for example, the maximum measurable deformation rate (along the satellite line of sight) is about 0.85 m/year. In this context, the application of digital photogrammetry (SfM) orthoimagery correlation techniques constitutes a directly applicable alternative for the remote monitoring of rapid slope movements. Moreover, whereas the application of InSAR monitoring techniques in densely vegetated areas is often impractical given the decorrelation produced by strong changes in the vegetation cover, the application of SfM monitoring techniques allows more effective analyses to be conducted in areas with abundant vegetation.Peer reviewe

Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather Events on the Coast of Southwest Europe during the Period 2009–2020

Coastal regions in Southwest Europe have experienced major interventions and transformations of the territory with unprecedented urban development, primarily related to growing tourism activity. The coast is the place where marine and terrestrial processes converge, making it highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, the lack of information on the frequency of these extreme weather events and their impacts on the coast hampers an accurate analysis of the consequences of global change. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the extreme weather events (EWE) that have affected the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts of Southwest Europe during the period from 1 January 2009 to 28 February 2020, as well as a quantification of their impacts: fatalities, injuries and economic damage. Official sources from France, Portugal and Spain were consulted, along with technical reports, scientific articles, etc., to generate a unified database. A total of 95 significant extreme events have caused 168 fatalities, 137 injuries and almost €4000 M in direct economic losses. Cyclone Xynthia (February 2010) on the French Atlantic coast stands out, having caused 47 fatalities, 79 injuries and substantial economic losses valued at €3000 M. The study shows a slight upward trend in the number of events recorded, especially during the last three years of the analysis, as well as in human losses and damages. The results reveal a higher exposure of the Mediterranean coast of Southwest Europe when compared to the Atlantic, especially the Spanish Mediterranean coast, with 61% of the fatalities recorded there during the study period. This is primarily due to a model of exponential tourism growth on the Mediterranean coast, with an enormous urban and infrastructure development during the last decades. Traditionally, the Mediterranean coast is less prepared to reduce the effects of marine storms, extreme events that are becoming more frequent and virulent in the context of climate and global change. This work highlights the need to create a continuous monitoring system–at the European level–of the impacts of extreme weather events on the coast, where 40% of the European population is concentrated. This observatory should serve as a source of information for risk mitigation policies (predictive, preventive and corrective), as well as for emergency management during disasters.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio