GFC-Robust Risk Management under the Basel Accord using Extreme Value Methodologies

In this paper we provide further evidence on the suitability of the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of models as a GFC-robust strategy by using an additional set of new extreme value forecasting models and by extending the sample period for comparison. These extreme value models include DPOT and Conditional EVT. Such models might be expected to be useful in explaining financial data, especially in the presence of extreme shocks that arise during a GFC. Our empirical results confirm that the median remains GFC-robust even in the presence of these new extreme value models. This is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 GFC. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria, including several tests for independence of the violations. The strategy based on the median, or more generally, on combined forecasts of single models, is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions

GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies

In McAleer et al. (2010b), a robust risk management strategy to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was proposed under the Basel II Accord by selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models. The robust forecast was based on the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of conditional volatility models. In this paper we provide further evidence on the suitability of the median as a GFC-robust strategy by using an additional set of new extreme value forecasting models and by extending the sample period for comparison. These extreme value models include DPOT and Conditional EVT. Such models might be expected to be useful in explaining financial data, especially in the presence of extreme shocks that arise during a GFC. Our empirical results confirm that the median remains GFC-robust even in the presence of these new extreme value models. This is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 GFC. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria, including several tests for independence of the violations. The strategy based on the median, or more generally, on combined forecasts of single models, is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions

Envenenamento experimental por Bothropoides jararaca e Bothrops jararacussu em ovinos: aspectos clínico-patológicos e laboratoriais Experimental poisoning by Bothropoides jararaca and Bothrops jararacussu in sheep: clinic-pathological and laboratory aspects

Esse estudo teve como objetivo determinar as alterações clínico-patológicas e laboratoriais em ovinos inoculados com a peçonha de Bothropoides jararaca e Bothrops jararacussu, no intuito de fornecer subsídios que possam facilitar o estabelecimento do diagnóstico e do diagnóstico diferencial dessa condição. Os venenos liofilizados foram diluídos em 1 ml de solução fisiológica e administrados a quatro ovinos por via subcutânea. Três ovinos foram a óbito e um que recebeu a dose de 0,5mg/kg (B. jararaca), recuperou-se. Os sinais clínicos tiveram início entre 7 minutos e 1 hora. O período de evolução variou de 7 horas 9 minutos a 21 horas 59 minutos. O quadro clínico, independentemente das doses, caracterizou-se por aumento de volume no local da inoculação, tempo de sangramento e de preenchimento capilar aumentados, taquicardia, dispnéia, mucosas hipocoradas e apatia. Os exames laboratoriais revelaram acentuada anemia normocítica normocrômica, trombocitopenia, acentuada redução de fibrinogênio e proteínas plasmáticas totais, hematócrito diminuído em dois animais, além de acentuado aumento de creatinaquinase e desidrogenase lática em todos os animais. À necropsia, os principais achados no local da inoculação e tecidos adjacentes eram extensas hemorragias no animal que recebeu o veneno de B. jararaca e edema e acentuado edema pulmonar agudo para os dois animais envenenados por B. jararacussu. Além de hemorragia e edema a principal alteração histopatológica verificada foi necrose das fibras musculares e de vasos, no local de inoculação e adjacências. A necrose tubular renal foi atribuída ao quadro de choque. Nos ovinos deste estudo, o aumento de volume observado no local de inoculação e adjacências era constituído predominantemente por sangue (B. jararaca) e por edema (B. jararacussu).<br>The purpose of this study was to establish the clinic-pathological and laboratory changes in sheep inoculated with Bothropoides jararaca and Bothrops jararacussu venom to provide subsidies for the differential diagnosis of snake bites. The liofilized venoms were diluted in 1 ml saline and administrated subcutaneously to four sheep. Three of the animals died, and the one that received 0.5mg/kg (B. jararaca venom) recovered. First symptoms were observed from 7 minutes to 1 hour after inoculation, and the clinical course varied from 7 hours and 9 minutes to 21 hours and 59 minutes. The symptoms, independent of the dosage, were swelling of the inoculation site, increased bleeding time and capillary filling, tachycardia, dyspnea, pale mucous membranes and diminished reaction to external stimuli. Laboratory tests revealed pronounced normocytic and normochromic anemia, trombocytopenia, slight reduction of fibrogen and total plasmatic protein, in two animals diminished hematocrit, besides pronounced increase of creatinaquinase and lactic dehydrogenase. At necropsy, the main findings at the inoculation site and adjacent tissues were extensive hemorrhages in the sheep inoculated with jararaca venom, and predominantly edema in the two animals inoculated with jararacussu venom. In two sheep which received jararacussu venom, acute pulmonary edema was observed. Hemorrhage and edema as the main histopathological changes, besides necrosis of muscle fibers and vessels at the inoculation site and adjacent tissue was observed. The renal tubular necrosis was attributed to shock. The volume increase at the inoculation site and surroundings was mainly due to hemorrhage (B. jararaca) or edema (B. jararacussu)

Lipid profile of lamb meat from different genotypes submitted to diets with different energy levels Perfil lipídico da carne ovina de diferentes genótipos mantidos com dietas com diferentes níveis energéticos

To assess the influence of genotype and diets with different energy levels on the lipid profile of sheep meat, 54 lambs were used (18 animals from each genotype: Morada Nova, Santa Inez and ½Dorper + ½Santa Inez crossbred), distributed in a completely randomized experimental design in a 3 &#215; 2 factorial arragement (three genotypes and two diets). The animals were submitted to two diets, 2.5 Mcal ME/kg DM and 3.0 Mcal ME/kg DM, receiving feed and water to reach the desired average live weight of 30 kg, when they were slaughtered. Total lipids, cholesterol, phospholipids and fatty acids profile of the Longissimus muscle were assessed. Diet and genotype did not influence the total lipids, cholesterol and phospholipids contents. The diet with the highest energy value presented higher values for the concentration of C12:0, C14:0, C18:0, C19:0, C22:0 acids and monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) in relation to that with the lowest energy value. However, for the concentrations of C15:0 acid and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), the highest values were recorded for diet with the lowest energy value. Genotype and diet influenced significantly the MUFA concentration, in which ½Dorper + ½Santa Inez crossbred genotype and diet with 2.5 Mcal ME/kg DM showed the highest values. Genotype influenced the saturated fatty acids (SFA) concentration, with ½Dorper + ½Santa Inez crossbred obtaining the lowest mean, behavior similar to that observed for PUFA concentrations. Desirable fatty acids (DFA), atherogenicity index as well as PUFA:SFA, MUFA:SFA, (C18:0 + C18:1):C16:0 ratios were influenced by diet and genotype. ½Dorper + ½Santa Inez crossbred and diet with 2.5 Mcal ME/kg DM obtained the best results.<br>Para avaliar a influência do genótipo e de dietas com diferentes níveis energéticos sobre o perfil lipídico da carne ovina, foram utilizados 54 cordeiros (18 animais de cada genótipo: Morada Nova, Santa Inês e mestiço ½Dorper + ½Santa Inês) distribuídos em delineamento experimental inteiramente ao acaso, em esquema fatorial 3 &#215; 2 (três genótipos e duas dietas). Os animais foram mantidos com duas dietas (com 2,5 Mcal EM/kg MS ou 3,0 Mcal EM/kg MS) recebendo alimentação e água à vontade até atingirem o peso vivo médio de 30 kg, quando foram abatidos. Determinaram-se os lipídios totais, o colesterol, os fosfolipídios e o perfil de ácidos graxos do músculo Longissimus. A dieta e os genótipos não influenciaram os teores de lipídios totais, colesterol e fosfolipídios. A dieta com maior valor energético apresentou valores mais elevados para concentração dos ácidos C12:0, C14:0, C18:0, C19:0, C22:0 e dos ácidos graxos monoinsaturados (AGM) em comparação àquela com menor valor energético. As maiores concentrações do ácido C15:0 e de ácidos graxos poliinsaturados (AGP) foram obtidas com a dieta de menor valor energético. O genótipo e a dieta influenciaram a concentração dos AGM, que foi maior nos mestiços ½Dorper + ½Santa Inês mantidos com a dieta com 2,5 Mcal EM/kg MS. O genótipo influenciou a concentração dos ácidos graxos saturados (AGS), uma vez que os mestiços ½Dorper + ½Santa Inês apresentaram a menor média, comportamento semelhante ao observado para as concentrações dos AGP. Os ácidos graxos desejáveis (AGD), o índice de aterogenicidade e as relações AGP:AGS, AGM:AGS, (C18:0 + C18:1):C16:0 foram influenciados pelo genótipo e pela dieta. O genótipo ½Dorper + ½Santa Inês e a dieta com 2,5 Mcal EM/kg MS possibilitaram os melhores resultados

Carbon content in Amazonian Oxisols after forest conversion to pasture Variação do conteúdo de carbono orgânico em Latossolo da Amazônia após substituição da floresta por pastagens

Soil plays an important role in the C cycle, and substitution of tropical forest by cultivated land affects C dynamic and stock. This study was developed in an area of expansion of human settlement in the Eastern Amazon, in Itupiranga, State of Pará, to evaluate the effects of native forest conversion to Brachiaria brizantha pasture on C contents of a dystrophic Oxisol. Soil samples were collected in areas of native forest (NF), of 8 to 10 year old secondary forest (SF), 1 to 2 year old SF (P1-2), 5 to 7 year old SF (P5-7), and of 10 to 12 year old SF (P10-12), and from under pastures, in the layers 0-2, 2-5 and 5-10 cm, to evaluate C levels and stocks and carry out separation of OM based on particle size. After deforestation, soil density increased to a depth of 5 cm, with greater increase in older pastures. Variation in C levels was greatest in the top soil layer; C contents increased with increasing pasture age. In the layers 2-5 and 5-10 cm, C content proved to be stable for the types of plant cover evaluated. Highest C concentrations were found in the silt fraction; however, C contents were highest in the clay fraction, independent of the plant cover. An increase in C associated with the sand fraction in the form of little decomposed organic residues was observed in pastures, confirming greater sensitivity of this fraction to change in soil use.<br>O solo desempenha importante papel no ciclo do C, porém a substituição da floresta tropical por áreas cultivadas altera a dinâmica e o estoque desse elemento. Em uma frente pioneira de colonização no município de Itupiranga (PA), na Amazônia Oriental, foi desenvolvido este estudo com o objetivo de avaliar as consequências da substituição de floresta nativa por pastagens de Brachiaria brizantha no conteúdo de C de um Latossolo Amarelo distrófico. As amostras de solo foram coletadas em área de floresta nativa (FN), floresta secundária de 8-10 anos (FS), pastagens de 1-2 anos (P1-2), de 5-7 anos (P5-7) e de 10-12 anos (P10-12), nas camadas de 0-2, 2-5 e 5-10 cm, para avaliar os teores e o estoque de C e realizar um fracionamento granulométrico da matéria orgânica. Após o desmatamento, a densidade do solo aumentou até a profundidade de 5 cm, sendo esse aumento maior nas pastagens mais antigas. As maiores mudanças no conteúdo de C ocorreram na camada superior do solo, havendo aumento nesse conteúdo com o tempo de implantação das pastagens. Nas camadas de 2-5 e 5-10 cm, o conteúdo de C se mostrou estável entre os tipos de cobertura vegetal avaliados. As maiores concentrações de C foram encontradas na fração silte, mas os maiores conteúdos de C ocorreram na fração argila, independentemente do tipo de cobertura vegetal. Um aumento da quantidade de C associado à fração areia, na forma de resíduos orgânicos pouco decompostos, foi observado nas pastagens, confirmando a maior sensibilidade dessa fração às mudanças de uso do solo

Brazilian Flora 2020: Leveraging the power of a collaborative scientific network

International audienceThe shortage of reliable primary taxonomic data limits the description of biological taxa and the understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes, complicating biogeographical, ecological, and evolutionary studies. This deficit creates a significant taxonomic impediment to biodiversity research and conservation planning. The taxonomic impediment and the biodiversity crisis are widely recognized, highlighting the urgent need for reliable taxonomic data. Over the past decade, numerous countries worldwide have devoted considerable effort to Target 1 of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC), which called for the preparation of a working list of all known plant species by 2010 and an online world Flora by 2020. Brazil is a megadiverse country, home to more of the world's known plant species than any other country. Despite that, Flora Brasiliensis, concluded in 1906, was the last comprehensive treatment of the Brazilian flora. The lack of accurate estimates of the number of species of algae, fungi, and plants occurring in Brazil contributes to the prevailing taxonomic impediment and delays progress towards the GSPC targets. Over the past 12 years, a legion of taxonomists motivated to meet Target 1 of the GSPC, worked together to gather and integrate knowledge on the algal, plant, and fungal diversity of Brazil. Overall, a team of about 980 taxonomists joined efforts in a highly collaborative project that used cybertaxonomy to prepare an updated Flora of Brazil, showing the power of scientific collaboration to reach ambitious goals. This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian Flora 2020 and provides taxonomic and spatial updates on the algae, fungi, and plants found in one of the world's most biodiverse countries. We further identify collection gaps and summarize future goals that extend beyond 2020. Our results show that Brazil is home to 46,975 native species of algae, fungi, and plants, of which 19,669 are endemic to the country. The data compiled to date suggests that the Atlantic Rainforest might be the most diverse Brazilian domain for all plant groups except gymnosperms, which are most diverse in the Amazon. However, scientific knowledge of Brazilian diversity is still unequally distributed, with the Atlantic Rainforest and the Cerrado being the most intensively sampled and studied biomes in the country. In times of “scientific reductionism”, with botanical and mycological sciences suffering pervasive depreciation in recent decades, the first online Flora of Brazil 2020 significantly enhanced the quality and quantity of taxonomic data available for algae, fungi, and plants from Brazil. This project also made all the information freely available online, providing a firm foundation for future research and for the management, conservation, and sustainable use of the Brazilian funga and flora

Growing knowledge: an overview of Seed Plant diversity in Brazil

Abstract An updated inventory of Brazilian seed plants is presented and offers important insights into the country's biodiversity. This work started in 2010, with the publication of the Plants and Fungi Catalogue, and has been updated since by more than 430 specialists working online. Brazil is home to 32,086 native Angiosperms and 23 native Gymnosperms, showing an increase of 3% in its species richness in relation to 2010. The Amazon Rainforest is the richest Brazilian biome for Gymnosperms, while the Atlantic Rainforest is the richest one for Angiosperms. There was a considerable increment in the number of species and endemism rates for biomes, except for the Amazon that showed a decrease of 2.5% of recorded endemics. However, well over half of Brazillian seed plant species (57.4%) is endemic to this territory. The proportion of life-forms varies among different biomes: trees are more expressive in the Amazon and Atlantic Rainforest biomes while herbs predominate in the Pampa, and lianas are more expressive in the Amazon, Atlantic Rainforest, and Pantanal. This compilation serves not only to quantify Brazilian biodiversity, but also to highlight areas where there information is lacking and to provide a framework for the challenge faced in conserving Brazil's unique and diverse flora