Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis. --Central bank communication,Interest rate forecasts,Survey expectations,Panel random coefficient model

Monetary Policy Implementation and the Federal Funds Rate

This paper investigates how the implementation of monetary policy affects the dynamics and the volatility of the federal funds rate. Since the early 1980s, the most important changes in the Fed?s conduct of monetary policy refer to the role of the federal funds rate target and the reserve requirement system. We show that the improved communication and transparency regarding the federal funds rate target has significantly increased the Fed?s influence on the federal funds rate since 1994. By contrast, the declining role of required reserves in the U.S. has contributed to higher federal funds rate volatility. Our results suggest that the planned introduction of remunerated reserves will further enhance the controllability of the federal funds rate. --Dynamics and Volatility of the Federal Funds Rate,Monetary Policy Implementation,Central Bank Communication,Reserve Requirements

Why Do Financial Market Experts Misperceive Future Monetary Policy Decisions?

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of in- dividual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's in- terest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis.Central bank communication, Interest rate forecasts, Survey expectations, Panel random coefficient model

Distances of Stars by mean of the Phase-lag Method

Variable OH/IR stars are Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars with an optically thick circumstellar envelope that emit strong OH 1612 MHz emission. They are commonly observed throughout the Galaxy but also in the LMC and SMC. Hence, the precise inference of the distances of these stars will ultimately result in better constraints on their mass range in different metallicity environments. Through a multi-year long-term monitoring program at the Nancay Radio telescope (NRT) and a complementary high-sensitivity mapping campaign at the eMERLIN and JVLA to measure precisely the angular diameter of the envelopes, we have been re-exploring distance determination through the phase-lag method for a sample of stars, in order to refine the poorly-constrained distances of some and infer the currently unknown distances of others. We present here an update of this project.Comment: 4 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables, to appear in the Proceedings of the IAU Symposium No. 336: Astrophysical Masers: Unlocking the Mysteries of the Univers

Monetary policy implementation and the federal funds rate

This paper investigates how the implementation of monetary policy affects the dynamics and the volatility of the federal funds rate. Since the early 1980s, the most important changes in the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy refer to the role of the federal funds rate target and the reserve requirement system. We show that the improved communication and transparency regarding the federal funds rate target has significantly increased the Fed’s influence on the federal funds rate since 1994. By contrast, the declining role of required reserves in the U.S. has contributed to higher federal funds rate volatility. Our results suggest that the planned introduction of remunerated reserves will further enhance the controllability of the federal funds rate

Central bank communication and the perception of monetary policy by financial market experts

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of in- dividual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's in- terest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003\. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis

Why do financial market experts misperceive future monetary policy decisions?

This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's interest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis

Predicting drug penetration across the blood-brain barrier: comparison of different stationary phases for immobilized artificial membrane liquid chromatography

Several in vitro methods have been tested for their ability to predict drug penetration across the blood-brain barrier into the central nervous system. In this article, the performance of three stationary phases for immobilized artificial membrane (IAM) liquid chromatographic approaches were compared on a set of 49 compounds. IAM liquid chromatography measurements were performed with Dulbecco’s phosphate-buffered saline and methanol as organic modifier in the mobile phase. Transport across the blood-brain barrier (log BB) was predicted using computed descriptor data and the retention factor of all compounds. All data were correlated with experimental log BB values and the relative performance of the approaches was studied. The IAM.PC.DD2 column proved to be the best suited for prediction of log BB values, although all three columns performed very good

DAMAGE CAUSED BY BROWN-CAPUCHIN MONKEYS TO NINE PINUS SPECIES AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR FOREST MANAGEMENT

Danos causados por Sapajus nigritus a plantios de pínus são comuns no sul e sudeste do Brasil. Para avaliar a susceptibilidade ao ataque desses primatas, foi calculada a porcentagem média de árvores com danos em parcelas de inventário contínuo de nove espécies de Pinus spp tropicais e temperado em plantios de quatro empresas nos estados do Paraná e Santa Catarina. Os resultados indicaram preferência por P. taeda e P greggii, com cerca de 97% das árvores com danos. No que diz respeito às espécies menos susceptíveis, p. patula e p. palustris com poucas arvores com danos (0.01%) ou não apresentaram danos. Outras espécies de Pinus variaram de 1.4 a 11.8% de arvores com danos.  A preferencia de macacos-prego por plantios de P. taeda é particularmente preocupante, já que é a espécie mais plantada no Sul do Brasil. No entanto, outras espécies que sofrem pouco ou nenhum dano, poderiam ser usadas como espécies alternativas, que possibilitem a diversificação de culturas e abre novas perspectivas para melhoria e engenharia genética do Pinus, de acordo com as necessidades dos diferentes produtores. Recomenda-se, no entanto, que essas estratégias sejam combinas com a recuperação de florestas nativas, uma vez que os danos estão associados a baixa qualidade dos fragmentos de florestas nativas no entorno dos plantios