Historical trends and variability in heat waves in the United Kingdom

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record.Increases in numbers and lengths of heat waves have previously been identified in global temperature records, including locations within Europe. However, studies of changes in UK heat wave characteristics are limited. Historic daily maximum temperatures from 29 weather stations with records exceeding 85 years in length across the country were examined. Heat waves were defined as periods with unusually high temperatures for each station, even if the temperatures would not be considered warm in an absolute sense. Positive trends in numbers and lengths of heat waves were identified at some stations. However, for some stations in the south east of England, lengths of very long heat waves (over 10 days) had declined since the 1970s, whereas the lengths of shorter heat waves had increased slightly. Considerable multidecadal variability in heat wave numbers and lengths was apparent at all stations. Logistic regression, using a subset of eight stations with records beginning in the nineteenth century, suggested an association between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the variability in heat wave numbers and lengths, with the summertime North Atlantic Oscillation playing a smaller role. The results were robust against different temperature thresholds.This work was funded under the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in environmental change and health, led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), the University of Exeter and the Met Office

Lipopolysaccharide does not alter small airway reactivity in mouse lung slices

The bacterial endotoxin, lipopolysaccharide (LPS) has been associated with occupational airway diseases with asthma-like symptoms and in acute exacerbations of COPD. The direct and indirect effects of LPS on small airway reactivity have not been fully elucidated. We tested the hypothesis that both in vitro and in vivo LPS treatment would increase contraction and impair relaxation of mouse small airways. Lung slices were prepared from naïve Balb/C mice and cultured in the absence or presence of LPS (10 µg/ml) for up to 48 h for measurement of TNFα levels in conditioned media. Alternatively, mice were challenged with PBS or LPS in vivo once a day for 4 days for preparation of lung slices or for harvest of lungs for Q-PCR analysis of gene expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines and receptors involved in airway contraction. Reactivity of small airways to contractile agonists, methacholine and serotonin, and bronchodilator agents, salbutamol, isoprenaline and rosiglitazone, were assessed using phase-contrast microscopy. In vitro LPS treatment of slices increased TNFα release 6-fold but did not alter contraction or relaxation to any agonists tested. In vivo LPS treatment increased lung gene expression of TNFα, IL-1β and ryanodine receptor isoform 2 more than 5-fold. However there were no changes in reactivity in lung slices from these mice, even when also incubated with LPS ex vivo. Despite evidence of LPS-induced inflammation, neither airway hyperresponsiveness or impaired dilator reactivity were evident. The increase in ryanodine receptor isoform 2, known to regulate calcium signaling in vascular smooth muscle, warrants investigation. Since LPS failed to elicit changes in small airway reactivity in mouse lung slices following in vitro or in vivo treatment, alternative approaches are required to define the potential contribution of this endotoxin to altered small airway reactivity in human lung diseases

Databases as policy instruments. About extending networks as evidence-based policy

Background. This article seeks to identify the role of databases in health policy. Access to information and communication technologies has changed traditional relationships between the state and professionals, creating new systems of surveillance and control. As a result, databases may have a profound effect on controlling clinical practice. Methods. We conducted three case studies to reconstruct the development and use of databases as policy instruments. Each database was intended to be employed to control the use of one particular pharmaceutical in the Netherlands (growth hormone, antiretroviral drugs for HIV and Taxol, respectively). We studied the archives of th

Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts

In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context

The implications of climate change for the water environment in England

This paper reviews the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management in England. There is a large literature, but most studies have looked at flow volumes or nutrients and none have considered explicitly the implications of climate change for the delivery of water management objectives. Studies have been undertaken in a small number of locations. Studies have used observations from the past to infer future changes, and have used numerical simulation models with climate change scenarios. The literature indicates that climate change poses risks to the delivery of water management objectives, but that these risks depend on local catchment and water body conditions. Climate change affects the status of water bodies, and it affects the effectiveness of measures to manage the water environment and meet policy objectives. The future impact of climate change on the water environment and its management is uncertain. Impacts are dependent on changes in the duration of dry spells and frequency of ‘flushing’ events, which are highly uncertain and not included in current climate scenarios. There is a good qualitative understanding of ways in which systems may change, but interactions between components of the water environment are poorly understood. Predictive models are only available for some components, and model parametric and structural uncertainty has not been evaluated. The impacts of climate change depend on other pressures on the water environment in a catchment, and also on the management interventions that are undertaken to achieve water management objectives. The paper has also developed a series of consistent conceptual models describing the implications of climate change for pressures on the water environment, based around the source-pathway-receptor concept. They provide a framework for a systematic assessment across catchments and pressures of the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management

Disparities and risks of sexually transmissible infections among men who have sex with men in China: a meta-analysis and data synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Hepatitis B and C virus, are emerging public health risks in China, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to assess the magnitude and risks of STIs among Chinese MSM. METHODS: Chinese and English peer-reviewed articles were searched in five electronic databases from January 2000 to February 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates for each STI infection were calculated using meta-analysis. Infection risks of STIs in MSM, HIV-positive MSM and male sex workers (MSW) were obtained. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO. RESULTS: Eighty-eight articles (11 in English and 77 in Chinese) investigating 35,203 MSM in 28 provinces were included in this review. The prevalence levels of STIs among MSM were 6.3% (95% CI: 3.5-11.0%) for chlamydia, 1.5% (0.7-2.9%) for genital wart, 1.9% (1.3-2.7%) for gonorrhoea, 8.9% (7.8-10.2%) for hepatitis B (HBV), 1.2% (1.0-1.6%) for hepatitis C (HCV), 66.3% (57.4-74.1%) for human papillomavirus (HPV), 10.6% (6.2-17.6%) for herpes simplex virus (HSV-2) and 4.3% (3.2-5.8%) for Ureaplasma urealyticum. HIV-positive MSM have consistently higher odds of all these infections than the broader MSM population. As a subgroup of MSM, MSW were 2.5 (1.4-4.7), 5.7 (2.7-12.3), and 2.2 (1.4-3.7) times more likely to be infected with chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HCV than the broader MSM population, respectively. CONCLUSION: Prevalence levels of STIs among MSW were significantly higher than the broader MSM population. Co-infection of HIV and STIs were prevalent among Chinese MSM. Integration of HIV and STIs healthcare and surveillance systems is essential in providing effective HIV/STIs preventive measures and treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO NO: CRD42013003721

Hypercholesterolemia and Myocardial function evaluated via Tissue Doppler Imaging

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

Cost-Effectiveness of New Cardiac and Vascular Rehabilitation Strategies for Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

Objective: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) often hinders the cardiac rehabilitation program. The aim of this study was evaluating the relative cost-effectiveness of new rehabilitation strategies which include the diagnosis and treatment of PAD in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing cardiac rehabilitation. Data Sources: Best-available evidence was retrieved from literature and combined with primary data from 231 patients. Methods: We developed a Markov decision model to compare the following treatment strategies: 1. cardiac rehabilitation only; 2. ankle-brachial index (ABI) if cardiac rehabilitation fails followed by diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed; 3. ABI prior to cardiac rehabilitation followed by diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed. Quality-adjusted-life years (QALYs), life-time costs (US $), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), and gain in net health benefits (NHB) in QALY equivalents were calculated. A threshold willingness-to-pay of$75 000 was used. Results: ABI if cardiac rehabilitation fails was the most favorable strategy with an ICER of $44 251 per QALY gained and an incremental NHB compared to cardiac rehabilitation only of 0.03 QALYs (95$75 000/QALY. After sensitivity analysis, a combined cardiac and vascular rehabilitation program increased the success rate and would dominate the other two strategies with total lifetime costs of $30 246 a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 3.84 years, and an incremental NHB of 0.06 QALYs (95%CI:−0.24, 0.46) compared to current practice. The results were robust for other different input parameters. Conclusion: ABI measurement if cardiac rehabilitation fails followed by a diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed are potentially cost-effective compared to cardiac rehabilitation only