Weather Variability, Tides, and Barmah Forest Virus Disease in the Gladstone Region, Australia

In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention

Using GIS to create synthetic disease outbreaks

BACKGROUND: The ability to detect disease outbreaks in their early stages is a key component of efficient disease control and prevention. With the increased availability of electronic health-care data and spatio-temporal analysis techniques, there is great potential to develop algorithms to enable more effective disease surveillance. However, to ensure that the algorithms are effective they need to be evaluated. The objective of this research was to develop a transparent user-friendly method to simulate spatial-temporal disease outbreak data for outbreak detection algorithm evaluation. A state-transition model which simulates disease outbreaks in daily time steps using specified disease-specific parameters was developed to model the spread of infectious diseases transmitted by person-to-person contact. The software was developed using the MapBasic programming language for the MapInfo Professional geographic information system environment. RESULTS: The simulation model developed is a generalised and flexible model which utilises the underlying distribution of the population and incorporates patterns of disease spread that can be customised to represent a range of infectious diseases and geographic locations. This model provides a means to explore the ability of outbreak detection algorithms to detect a variety of events across a large number of stochastic replications where the influence of uncertainty can be controlled. The software also allows historical data which is free from known outbreaks to be combined with simulated outbreak data to produce files for algorithm performance assessment. CONCLUSION: This simulation model provides a flexible method to generate data which may be useful for the evaluation and comparison of outbreak detection algorithm performance

À la folie de Joy Sorman

International audienceJoy Sorman's À la folie (2021) is presented as a novel in which the reader follows the narrator's visits to a psychiatric hospital. However, it is more of a field study, part of the non-fictional writings which have flourished in contemporary French literature. This paper aims at demonstrating that this narrative is above all a book of bodies and voices, whose writing attempts to become an echo chamber. The project confronts the difficult question of the restitution and of the right distance to keep with regard to the individuals encountered. If Joy Sorman's approach is tended by the will not to vampire the words and gestures of those she meets, we must wonder about the implications both aesthetic and ethical of its restitution. For À la folie is also the diary of colorful bodies whose representations and the imaginary that they carry can be questioned, whose accuracy can also be questioned. By studying the way in which the author negotiates the gap, the following article intends to show that Joy Sorman's book is precisely an investigation on the edge, torn between paradoxical gestures and representations of which the writing keeps the trace.Si À la folie de Joy Sorman, paru en 2021, se présente comme un roman, il participe pourtant bien plutôt de ces écrits non-fictionnels – littérature de terrain ou d’enquête – qui font florès dans le champ éditorial contemporain français. Récit suivi des visites de la narratrice au sein d’un hôpital psychiatrique, il s’agit surtout d’un livre de corps et de voix dont l’écriture tente de se faire la chambre d’écho. Le projet s’affronte ainsi à la difficile question de la restitution des témoignages collectés et de la juste distance à conserver vis-à-vis des individus rencontrés. Si la démarche de Joy Sorman est tendue par la volonté de ne pas vampiriser les paroles et les gestes de celles et ceux qu’elle rencontre pour en faire de beaux objets littéraires, il est légitime de s’interroger sur les implications à la fois esthétiques et éthiques de sa restitution. Car À la folie est aussi le journal de corps hauts en couleur dont les représentations et l’imaginaire qu’ils charrient peuvent être interrogés, dont on peut également questionner la justesse. En étudiant la manière dont l’autrice négocie cette problématique de l’écart, l’article qui suit se propose ainsi de montrer que le livre de Joy Sorman est précisément une enquête sur le fil, tiraillée entre des gestes et des représentations paradoxales du corps des fous dont l’écriture garde la trace

Les émotions littéraires à l’œuvre : lieux, formes et expériences partagées d’aujourd’hui

Où et comment est-il aujourd’hui possible de faire l’expérience des émotions littéraires ? La sphère privée de la lecture individuelle constitue bien sûr une première réponse. L’évocation des lieux d’enseignement que sont l’école et l’Université vient ensuite. Mais que pourrait-on dire de cette expérience au sein de la cité ? Dans quelle mesure participe-t-elle de la vie publique, et informe-t-elle des usages, des pratiques, des modes de sociabilités ? Rendre compte des lieux, des espaces, des pratiques dans lesquels l’individu peut faire aujourd’hui l’expérience des émotions littéraires partagées, c’est, d’une certaine manière, parler de la vitalité de la littérature. Where and how is it possible today to experience literary emotions? The private sphere of individual reading is of course the first answer. The next answer is to mention places of education, such as schools and universities. But what can be said about this experience in the public realm? To what extent does it participate in public life, and does it inform habits, practices and modes of sociability? To give an account of the places, spaces and practices in which individuals can experience shared literary emotions today is, in a way, to speak of the vitality of literature

Rescue carotid puncture for ischemic stroke treated by endovascular therapy: a multicentric analysis and systematic review

International audienceBackground Endovascular therapy (EVT) for acute ischemic stroke (AIS) can be challenging in older patients with supra-aortic tortuosity. Rescue carotid puncture (RCP) can be an alternative in case of supra-aortic catheterization failure by femoral access, but data regarding RCP are scarce. We sought to investigate the feasibility, effectiveness and safety of RCP for AIS treated by EVT. Methods Patients treated by EVT with RCP were included from January 2012 to December 2019 in the Endovascular Treatment in Ischemic Stroke (ETIS) multicentric registry. Main outcomes included reperfusion rates (≥TICI2B), 3 month functional outcome (modified Rankin Scale) and 3 month mortality. We also performed an additional systematic review of the literature according to the PRISMA checklist to summarize previous studies on RCP. Results 25 patients treated by EVT with RCP were included from the ETIS registry. RCP mainly concerned elderly patients (median age 85 years, range 73–92) with supra-aortic tortuosity (n=16 (64%)). Intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) was used for nine patients (36%). Successful reperfusion was achieved in 64%, 87.5% of patients were dependent at 3 months, and 3 month mortality was 45.8%. The systematic review yielded comparable results. In pooled individual data, there was a shift toward better functional outcome in patients with successful reperfusion (median (IQR) 4 (2–6) vs 6 (4–6), p=0.011). Conclusion RCP mainly concerned elderly patients admitted for AIS with anterior LVO with supra-aortic tortuosity. The procedure seemed feasible, notably for patients treated with IVT, and led to significant reperfusion rates at the end of procedure, but with pronounced unfavorable outcomes at 3 months. RCP should be performed under general anesthesia to avoid life-threatening complications and ensure airways safety. Finally, RCP led to low rates of closure complications, emphasizing that this concern should not withhold RCP, if indicated