Reconstruction and simulation of an extreme flood event in the Lago Maggiore catchment in 1868

Heavy precipitation on the south side of the central Alps produced a catastrophic flood in October 1868. We assess the damage and societal impacts, as well as the atmospheric and hydrological drivers using documentary evidence, observations and novel numerical weather and runoff simulations.The greatest damage was concentrated close to the Alpine divide and Lago Maggiore. An atmospheric reanalysis emphasizes the repeated occurrence of streamers of high potential vorticity as precursors of heavy precipitation. Dynamical downscaling indicates high freezing levels (4000&thinsp;m&thinsp;a.s.l.), extreme precipitation rates (max. 270&thinsp;mm&thinsp;24&thinsp;h−1) and weather dynamics that agree well with observed precipitation and damage, and with existing concepts of forced low-level convergence, mid-level uplift and iterative northeastward propagation of convective cells. Simulated and observed peak levels of Lago Maggiore differ by 2&thinsp;m, possibly because the exact cross section of the lake outflow is unknown. The extreme response of Lago Maggiore cannot be attributed to low forest cover. Nevertheless, such a paradigm was adopted by policy makers following the 1868 flood, and used to implement nationwide afforestation policies and hydraulic structures.These findings illustrate the potential of high-resolution, hydrometeorological models – strongly supported by historical methods – to shed new light on weather events and their socio-economic implications in the 19th century.</p

Positive pion absorption on 3He using modern trinucleon wave functions

We study pion absorption on 3He employing trinucleon wave functions calculated from modern realistic NN interactions (Paris, CD Bonn). Even though the use of the new wave functions leads to a significant improvement over older calculations with regard to both cross section and polarization data, there are hints that polarization data with quasifree kinematics cannot be described by just two-nucleon absorption mechanisms.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

The pd <--> pi+ t reaction around the Delta resonance

The pd pi+ t process has been calculated in the energy region around the Delta-resonance with elementary production/absorption mechanisms involving one and two nucleons. The isobar degrees of freedom have been explicitly included in the two-nucleon mechanism via pi-- and rho-exchange diagrams. No free parameters have been employed in the analysis since all the parameters have been fixed in previous studies on the simpler pp pi+ d process. The treatment of the few-nucleon dynamics entailed a Faddeev-based calculation of the reaction, with continuum calculations for the initial p-d state and accurate solutions of the three-nucleon bound-state equation. The integral cross-section was found to be quite sensitive to the NN interaction employed while the angular dependence showed less sensitivity. Approximately a 4% effect was found for the one-body mechanism, for the three-nucleon dynamics in the p-d channel, and for the inclusion of a large, possibly converged, number of three-body partial states, indicating that these different aspects are of comparable importance in the calculation of the spin-averaged observables.Comment: 40 Pages, RevTex, plus 5 PostScript figure

Tear fluid biomarkers in ocular and systemic disease: potential use for predictive, preventive and personalised medicine

In the field of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine, researchers are keen to identify novel and reliable ways to predict and diagnose disease, as well as to monitor patient response to therapeutic agents. In the last decade alone, the sensitivity of profiling technologies has undergone huge improvements in detection sensitivity, thus allowing quantification of minute samples, for example body fluids that were previously difficult to assay. As a consequence, there has been a huge increase in tear fluid investigation, predominantly in the field of ocular surface disease. As tears are a more accessible and less complex body fluid (than serum or plasma) and sampling is much less invasive, research is starting to focus on how disease processes affect the proteomic, lipidomic and metabolomic composition of the tear film. By determining compositional changes to tear profiles, crucial pathways in disease progression may be identified, allowing for more predictive and personalised therapy of the individual. This article will provide an overview of the various putative tear fluid biomarkers that have been identified to date, ranging from ocular surface disease and retinopathies to cancer and multiple sclerosis. Putative tear fluid biomarkers of ocular disorders, as well as the more recent field of systemic disease biomarkers, will be shown

The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe

Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls

Cairo's Urban Transformation: Mohandeseen and Zamalek Narratives

Im Gegensatz zu anderen Großstädten der Welt hat Kairo im Laufe seiner langen Geschichte einen bedeutenden Wandel durchlaufen. Während einige Elemente der Vergangenheit noch sichtbar sind, allen voran die Pyramiden von Gizeh, sind andere Elemente längst verschwunden. Es ist schwer vorstellbar, dass das historische Kairo einst das Zentrum einer fruchtbaren, von Seen durchzogenen Landschaft war, vor allem wenn man mit den heutigen Realitäten einer dichten, meist grauen Stadtlandschaft konfrontiert wird, die von einer dünnen Staubschicht und einer Vielzahl von Umweltproblemen bedeckt ist. Kairo ist die größte Mega-Stadt auf dem afrikanischen Kontinent und verändert sich weiterhin schnell, sowohl formal als auch informell. Um die Transformation Kairos zu steuern und die informelle Entwicklung auf dem verbleibenden fruchtbaren Land einzuschränken, werden neue staatlich finanzierte Wüstenstädte geplant, gebaut und bewohnt. Gleichzeitig haben massive Hochhäuser die einst charakteristischen großen, wohlhabenden Villensiedlungen in regulär entwickelten Kernstadtgebieten wie Zamalek und Mohandeseen ersetzt. In Zamalek hat sich diese Transformation dazu geführt, dass sich viele Bürger der Oberschicht in die Wüstenstädte zurückziehen und Spuren des Verfalls hinterlassen, während Mohandeseen zu einem der teuersten Gebiete in Kairo geworden ist, das fast keine Spuren des Garden City-Konzepts hinterlässt, das seine frühe Entwicklung bestimmt hat. Während viel Aufmerksamkeit auf die Erweiterung und Verbesserung informeller Gebiete und die Schaffung neuer Wüstenstädte gerichtet wird, ist es auch wichtig, aus der Vergangenheit zu lernen und die zukünftige Transformation von Kernstadtgebieten wie Mohandeseen und Zamalek zu steuern. Im Folgenden wird die Transformation ausgewählter Gebiete in Monhandeseen um die Libanon Street und den Assuan Square sowie um Zamalek im Norden des Gezira Sporting Club untersucht.Not unlike other major cities around the world, Cairo has undergone a significant transformation over the course of its long history. While some elements of the past are still visible, the most notable being the Pyramids of Giza, other elements have long since disappeared. It is hard to imagine that historic Cairo was once at the center of a fertile landscape dotted with lakes, especially when confronted with today’s realities of a dense mostly gray cityscape covered by a thin layer of dust and a host of environmental problems. Cairo is the largest mega-city on the African continent and it continues to transform rapidly, both formally and informally. In an effort to guide Cairo’s transformation and limit informal development on its remaining fertile land, new state funded desert cities are being planned, built and inhabited. At the same time, massive tower blocks have replaced the once characteristic large prosperous villa estates within formally developed core-city areas such as Zamalek and Mohandeseen. In Zamalek this transformation has caused many upper class residents to withdraw to the desert cities leaving behind signs of decay, while Mohandeseen has become one of the most expensive areas in Cairo leaving almost no trace of the Garden City concept which guided its early development. While much needed attention goes to the expansion and improvement of informal areas and to the creation of new desert cities, it is also important to learn from the past as well as to guide the future transformation of core-city areas such as Mohandeseen and Zamalek. The following investigates the transformation of select areas of Mohandeseen around Lebanon Street and Aswan Square in addition to Zamalek to the north of the Gezira Sporting Club

Comparative Advantages of School and Workplace Environment in Competence Acquisition: Empirical Evidence from a Survey Among Professional Tertiary Education and Training Students in Switzerland

This paper sheds light on the questions how important competences are and which competences can best be learned at school and which competences can be acquired better in the workplace. Exploiting data from a survey among professional tertiary education and training business administration students and their employers in Switzerland, we find that competences related to strategic management, human resource management, organizational design and project management processes are most suitable to be taught in school. However, the results further suggest that soft skills can be acquired more effectively in the workplace than at school. The only exceptions are analytical thinking, joy of learning and organizational competences, for which school and workplace are similarly suitable. Thereby, the paper provides empirical evidence regarding the optimal choice of the learning place for both human resource managers as well as educational decision makers who aim to combine education and training, e.g. in an apprenticeship

Labour market prospects of Swiss career entrants after completion of vocational education and training

This study seeks to find the reasons for the rising risk of unemployment for people who have completed basic vocational education and training (VET) in Switzerland. We focus on the long-term structural shift on the demand side of the labour market and its consequences for new entrants’ chances of employment in the labour force. A detailed analysis of the development of vacancies for such ‘career entrants’ in the time period 2001 to 2011 suggests that neither a growing occupational mismatch nor a general shift in the level of education to the disadvantage of workers with vocational education can be made responsible for the rising unemployment of labour market entrants. Instead, the available evidence indicates that a diminishing part of the vacancies suited for VET graduates remains open to entrants because of the increasing job requirements with regard to work experience and further education. Basic vocational education and training alone is increasingly less a guarantee for a smooth entry into the working world