21 research outputs found

    Reconstruction and simulation of an extreme flood event in the Lago Maggiore catchment in 1868

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    Heavy precipitation on the south side of the central Alps produced a catastrophic flood in October 1868. We assess the damage and societal impacts, as well as the atmospheric and hydrological drivers using documentary evidence, observations and novel numerical weather and runoff simulations.The greatest damage was concentrated close to the Alpine divide and Lago Maggiore. An atmospheric reanalysis emphasizes the repeated occurrence of streamers of high potential vorticity as precursors of heavy precipitation. Dynamical downscaling indicates high freezing levels (4000&thinsp;m&thinsp;a.s.l.), extreme precipitation rates (max. 270&thinsp;mm&thinsp;24&thinsp;h−1) and weather dynamics that agree well with observed precipitation and damage, and with existing concepts of forced low-level convergence, mid-level uplift and iterative northeastward propagation of convective cells. Simulated and observed peak levels of Lago Maggiore differ by 2&thinsp;m, possibly because the exact cross section of the lake outflow is unknown. The extreme response of Lago Maggiore cannot be attributed to low forest cover. Nevertheless, such a paradigm was adopted by policy makers following the 1868 flood, and used to implement nationwide afforestation policies and hydraulic structures.These findings illustrate the potential of high-resolution, hydrometeorological models – strongly supported by historical methods – to shed new light on weather events and their socio-economic implications in the 19th century.</p

    Positive pion absorption on 3He using modern trinucleon wave functions

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    We study pion absorption on 3He employing trinucleon wave functions calculated from modern realistic NN interactions (Paris, CD Bonn). Even though the use of the new wave functions leads to a significant improvement over older calculations with regard to both cross section and polarization data, there are hints that polarization data with quasifree kinematics cannot be described by just two-nucleon absorption mechanisms.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figure

    The pd <--> pi+ t reaction around the Delta resonance

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    The pd pi+ t process has been calculated in the energy region around the Delta-resonance with elementary production/absorption mechanisms involving one and two nucleons. The isobar degrees of freedom have been explicitly included in the two-nucleon mechanism via pi-- and rho-exchange diagrams. No free parameters have been employed in the analysis since all the parameters have been fixed in previous studies on the simpler pp pi+ d process. The treatment of the few-nucleon dynamics entailed a Faddeev-based calculation of the reaction, with continuum calculations for the initial p-d state and accurate solutions of the three-nucleon bound-state equation. The integral cross-section was found to be quite sensitive to the NN interaction employed while the angular dependence showed less sensitivity. Approximately a 4% effect was found for the one-body mechanism, for the three-nucleon dynamics in the p-d channel, and for the inclusion of a large, possibly converged, number of three-body partial states, indicating that these different aspects are of comparable importance in the calculation of the spin-averaged observables.Comment: 40 Pages, RevTex, plus 5 PostScript figure

    Tear fluid biomarkers in ocular and systemic disease: potential use for predictive, preventive and personalised medicine

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    In the field of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine, researchers are keen to identify novel and reliable ways to predict and diagnose disease, as well as to monitor patient response to therapeutic agents. In the last decade alone, the sensitivity of profiling technologies has undergone huge improvements in detection sensitivity, thus allowing quantification of minute samples, for example body fluids that were previously difficult to assay. As a consequence, there has been a huge increase in tear fluid investigation, predominantly in the field of ocular surface disease. As tears are a more accessible and less complex body fluid (than serum or plasma) and sampling is much less invasive, research is starting to focus on how disease processes affect the proteomic, lipidomic and metabolomic composition of the tear film. By determining compositional changes to tear profiles, crucial pathways in disease progression may be identified, allowing for more predictive and personalised therapy of the individual. This article will provide an overview of the various putative tear fluid biomarkers that have been identified to date, ranging from ocular surface disease and retinopathies to cancer and multiple sclerosis. Putative tear fluid biomarkers of ocular disorders, as well as the more recent field of systemic disease biomarkers, will be shown

    Labour market prospects of Swiss career entrants after completion of vocational education and training

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    This study seeks to find the reasons for the rising risk of unemployment for people who have completed basic vocational education and training (VET) in Switzerland. We focus on the long-term structural shift on the demand side of the labour market and its consequences for new entrants’ chances of employment in the labour force. A detailed analysis of the development of vacancies for such ‘career entrants’ in the time period 2001 to 2011 suggests that neither a growing occupational mismatch nor a general shift in the level of education to the disadvantage of workers with vocational education can be made responsible for the rising unemployment of labour market entrants. Instead, the available evidence indicates that a diminishing part of the vacancies suited for VET graduates remains open to entrants because of the increasing job requirements with regard to work experience and further education. Basic vocational education and training alone is increasingly less a guarantee for a smooth entry into the working world
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